GLG News Analyses of the following article:

Belarus purges its gas and oil chiefs

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Published at: www.msnbc.msn.com

The Dysfunctional Russo-Belarussian Marriage and European Energy Supplies

July 26, 2007

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

This article demonstrates what happens to weak states and economies who become too dependent on Russian gas.  Central and East European states who depend on Russian gas should be especially alarmed about that dependence.  These points also underscore the urgency for the EU to devise a viable energy policy.  While this row will not directly affect Europe for now, it shows what happens if a government falls into Moscow's trap and then cannot pay its bills.  Their government  falls apart and their economy becomes vulnerable to Russian takeovers that ultimately imperil their actual independence.  Thus dependence on Russian gas and oil translates into enduring economic and political leverage.  Minsk's shrinking  control over its own domestic economy could well become the harbinger of future outcomes in Central and Eastern Europe if those states and the EU cannot devise a response to Russian pressure.  And even in the West, as in Germany, Russia exercises a significant leverage over policy.

The Larger Problem is the Belarus Alliance with Iran and Venezuela

July 26, 2007

Analysis by: GLG Expert Contributor

There are many layers and crosscurrents to the Belarus problem.  Energy is just one of them. First, Lukashenko is the last dictator in his neighborhood (unless you count Putin).  He wants to turn back the clock to the glory days of the Soviet Union.  Some political parties in Russia actually support him for a run at the Russian Presidency. Second, Lukashism is synonymous with tyranny, oppression, and anti-Semitism.  In addition, 400,000 ethnic Poles are the subject of hatred and discrimination in Belarus. Third, The real thorny issue for Poland is Russian deployment of advanced air system missiles, S-300PS surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) in Belarus near the Polish border. Now back to energy.  Lukashenko is holding some trump cards, he has already forged an alliance with Iran and Venezuela.  This gives him a new source for oil.