Mr. Craig Marston

Managing Director, CEM Marine

GLG News by Mr. Craig Marston, Managing Director

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Kuhne Paid Way Too Much

October 16, 2008

Analysis of:"Extremely high" | www.tradewinds.no

The Albert Ballin consortium, led by Klaus-Michael Kuhne, admitted to Tradewinds that they paid an "extremely high" price for Hapag-Lloyd in an effort to keep the company away from NOL. The move was based upon Nationalistic emotions, not business metrics.

Dry Bulk Shipping Looking Gloomy For Many

October 13, 2008

Analysis of:China cuts back | www.tradewinds.no

Declining demand for iron ore, the credit crisis, and gloomy economic forecasts have led to an early decline in dry bulk shipping rates. For many speculative ship owners, the future is bleak. This will create opportunities for owners without liquidity problems.

Wrong Timing For Shipyard Consolidation

August 28, 2008

Analysis of:Usual suspects | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds reported that the list of suitors for the 50.4% stake being offered in Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (DSME) includes Hyundai Heavy Industry, Posco, the GS Group, and Hanwha Group. Analysts expect a bidding war to result. While a great time for sellers to unlock the value of the business, this is a terrible time for the competitors to acquire Daewoo.

Jinhui Too Optimistic

August 28, 2008

Analysis of:Macro meltdown? | www.tradewinds.no

Jinhui Shipping & Transportation (Oslo:JIN.OL) reported record profits and simultaneously warned of weaker medium term prospects. The company rightly cited macroeconomic concerns on the demand side, but is overly optimistic related to the supply side.

NOL Likely To Acquire Hapag-Lloyd

August 27, 2008

Analysis of:NOL will not pay over the odds for Hapag | www.lloydslist.com

Despite the 4b Euro "minimum" price that TUI is placing on Hapag, opposition from Hamburg, and a very conservative acquisition history, NOL is very likely to be the successful bidder.

Credit Crunch Not A Factor For Overall Shipbuilding Industry

August 20, 2008

Analysis of:Credit Crunch Spreads to Shipyards | www.marinelink.com

The impact of the "credit crunch," while real for individual companies, is not a factor for the overall shipbuilding industry. The few building slots that have been canceled by owner default have been readily resold at higher margins. The drop-off in post-2010 orders has its roots in oversupply of new ships and shipbuilding capacity.

NOL Will Win The Battle For Hapag-Lloyd

July 24, 2008

Analysis of:Hapag bids flow in | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds reports that some six or seven bidders responded to the initial round of indicative bids for TUI's liner shipping company. NOL will be the successful bidder.

Beginning To Look Like 2002 For The PMA-ILWU Negotiations

July 21, 2008

Analysis of:SoCal port terminals reporting ILWU slowdown | www.americanshipper.com

Despite the change in leadership at both the PMA and ILWU, commitment to early negotiations, and a clampdown on rhetoric in the press, the situation is starting to resemble the 2002 talks that led to a 10-day lockout.

Australian Ore Prices Unlikely To Hurt Dry Shipping

July 1, 2008

Analysis of:Reaction mixed | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds reported that Rio Tinto and BHP Billington have finalized contracts with Baosteel for an 80%+ increase in the price of iron ore out of Australia. This compares favorably to the Vale benchmark achieved earlier this year for a 65% increase out of Brazil and reflects the freight differential sought by the Australians. The impact on dry bulk shipping is likely to be minor.

Fuel Surcharge Under Scrutiny In Jones Act Trades

July 1, 2008

Analysis of:Matson sued | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds reported that Rhythm of Life Cosmetics has filed a "me too" law suit against Matson Navigation Company (Nasdaq:ALEX) citing the DOJ investigation into the Jones Act liner trades. This is the first suit against Matson, whom does not participate in the Puerto Rico trade where most of the DOJ focus has been.

Older Bulk Carriers Will Exit The Market In 2010

June 11, 2008

Analysis of:Dry bulk faces fleet 'age crisis' | www.tradewinds.no

A significant percentage of the dry bulk fleet continues to trade past the normal retirement age of 25 years due to robust rates. This will be corrected in 2010, when new vessels will push down rates and push out vintage tonnage.

Offshore Service Companies Finally Show Some Restraint

June 10, 2008

Analysis of:Orders stunted | www.tradewinds.no

Perhaps a bit too late, we are seeing signs of a cut off in new vessel orders for the offshore service sector.

Limits To Slow Steaming Very Real

June 10, 2008

Analysis of:Slow speed ahead | www.tradewinds.no

The article highlights the limitations to slow-steaming and why this will result in diminishing returns as a mechanism for absorbing excess container ship capacity.

Slow Steaming Won't Be The Answer Going Forward

May 27, 2008

Analysis of:Slower-steaming trend sparks rush to fix post-panamaxes | www.tradewinds.no

The charter market for post-panamax tonnage is hot as owners jump on the bandwagon of slowing vessels to save fuel cost.

Good News In The Transpacific Liner Shipping Trade

May 27, 2008

Analysis of:Bunker surcharge floats | www.tradewinds.no

Reports from the TSA indicate that their primary goal of the 2008 contracting season, floating fuel surcharges, has largely been accepted by shippers. Their secondary goal, increases in the base freight rate, has largely failed.

Overcapacity More Of An Issue For Dry Bulk Than Slackening Demand

May 19, 2008

Analysis of:Threat of dry bulk doomsday scenario is real | lloydslist.com

There is no doubt that world GDP has a strong correlation to dry bulk shipping rates, but the short-term problem is impending oversupply, rather than slackening demand.

Real Cancelations Of Dry Bulk Ships Will Be Minimal

May 16, 2008

Analysis of:Shipbuilding Torpedoed by Subprime Causes Cost Surge (Update1) | www.bloomberg.com

While the combination of escalating steel prices, inexperienced shipyards, and the credit crisis may conspire to effect the cancelations of some contracts, the impact on actual ships built will be minimal.

Size Still Does Matter In Offshore Supply

May 8, 2008

Analysis of:Tidewater profit misses Street view, shares fall | www.reuters.com

While Tidewater (NYSE:TDW) reported a year on year drop of 2.5% in earnings, the sky is not yet falling.

First Ruling Not Good For Jones Act Operators

April 25, 2008

Analysis of:Ship axed from Jones Act | www.tradewinds.no

A surprisingly quick, but predictable ruling by a Federal judge has created significant uncertainties for many Jones Act operators.

Hapag-Lloyd A Great Fit For NOL

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:NOL gets clear run on Hapag | www.tradewinds.no

As other likely strategic buyers seem to be backing away, NOL is emerging as the leading bidder for TUI's Hapag-Lloyd.