Mr. Craig Marston

Managing Director, CEM Marine

GLG News by Mr. Craig Marston, Managing Director

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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2008 Looks To Be A Difficult Year For Container Shipping

January 10, 2008

Analysis of:MOL’s Ashida expresses concern about container business | www.americanshipper.com

Moderation in volume growth coupled with new capacity introductions will make for challenging conditions for liner shipping companies in 2008.

Shipbuilding Orders Likely To Start Moderating In 2008

January 10, 2008

Analysis of:Another bumper year in the offing for S. Korean shipyards | www.gobizkorea.com

2007 capped a string of years of consecutive record orders for the big three shipbuilders in South Korea. Hanjin Heavy Industries (SEO:003480), Samsung Heavy Industries (SEO:010140), and Daewoo Shipbuilding (SEO:042660) are the world's largest shipbuilders, respectively, despite gains made by Chinese shipyards. Despite full order books stretching into 2011, new orders placed in 2008 are likely to fall short of 2007's peak levels.

The Emotional Aspect Of Freight Rates

December 26, 2007

Analysis of:Bullish outlook drives dry sector | www.tradewinds.no

An excellent article that discusses the interplay between fundamentals and sentiment in Dry Bulk and Tanker shipping markets.

ExxonMobil Staying The Course With Single Hulled Tankers

December 26, 2007

Analysis of:Major stays on single-hull path | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds reported this week that ExxonMobil, the largest charterer of single-hulled tankers, has no intention of altering their practices as a result of two relatively high-profile oil spills.

Crewing Issue A Growing Problem In Shipping

December 26, 2007

Analysis of:Crunch time in world shipping | www.mua.org.au

The article addresses the very real problem of securing sufficient and competent staff for manning ships. The problem, in terms of direct costs, lost revenues and increased casualty rates will be exacerbated over the next 5 years.

Impact Of Recent Legislation on Horizon Lines

December 21, 2007

Analysis of:US brightens Horizon | www.tradewinds.no

Horizon Lines (NYS:HRZ) put out a press release regarding their outlook as a result of recent legislation. Some hype is valid, some is not.

Horizon Dodges A Bullet

December 20, 2007

Analysis of:Horizon rebounds | www.tradewinds.no

Some slick congressional maneuvering yanked the threat of excluding income from Puerto Rico from tonnage tax eligibility, at least for the moment. It will be interesting to see what happens now.

Tanker Rate Recovery In 2010 Looks Stronger

December 19, 2007

Analysis of:Spill boosts double-hull hopes | www.tradewinds.no

The spill from the VLCC Hebei Spirit in South Korean waters has spiked rates in the short-term, but fundamentals will correct this for most of 2008 and 2009. However, the event increases the likelihood that major Asian countries will abide by the 2010 IMO single-hull phaseout date.

Tanker Rates Look To Be Strong A Little Longer

December 17, 2007

Analysis of:Opec output rising | www.tradewinds.no

Indications that OPEC could increase production by 460,000 bpd over the next four weeks, coupled by arbitrage movements from the Arabian Gulf to the US West Coast have impacted against a relatively tight vessel position situation to push VLCC rates up to $200,000/day.

Puerto Rico Application Of Tonnage Tax Will Be Repealed

December 13, 2007

Analysis of:Horizon responds | www.tradewinds.no

Horizon Lines (NYS:HRZ) is attempting to fight the technical corrections bill working its way through Congress that would retroactively eliminate the eligibility of Puerto Rico trade from inclusion in the tonnage tax. They will not be successful.

VLCC Tanker High Rates Will Not Persist

December 7, 2007

Analysis of:Scramble to fix as VLCC rates swell | www.tradewinds.no

The dormant Tanker market regained some of the spotlight last week when rates abruptly climbed to $140k/day from a low of $20k/day in October. High rates are unlikely to persist beyond the end of the year.

Sea Containers Still Facing An Uncertain Future

December 7, 2007

Analysis of:A win for Sea Containers | www.tradewinds.no

Sea Containers (OTC:SCRA.PK) finally received some good news, having won their dispute with GE Capital in arbitration.

Tonnage Tax Legislation Will Significantly Hurt Horizon's PR Trade Profitability

December 7, 2007

Analysis of:Expensive tax blunder for Horizon | www.tradewinds.no

The US Congress is in the process of removing a loophole in the 2004 Jobs Creation Act tonnage tax scheme that will disqualify Jones Act trade to Puerto Rico, perhaps retroactively. Horizon Lines (NYS:HRZ) and Trailerbridge (Nasdaq:TRBR) will see the largest negative impacts.

Handysize Market Potential Very Strong

November 26, 2007

Analysis of:Metrostar puts faith in handysizes | www.tradewinds.no

While most attention in dry bulk shipping has focused on the Capesize sector and the astronomical rates being achieved, the Handysize sector shows more promise in the long-term.

Container Shipping Theme For 2008 Is Floating Fuel Surcharges

November 20, 2007

Analysis of:APL chief: Rising fuel costs hurting container carriers | www.americanshipper.com

Bunker fuel prices have soared ($514/ton versus $280/ton a year ago.) Liner companies have had only moderate success in achieving a cost-neutral status, with spot shippers paying the bulk of the price increases through fuel surcharges.

Marine Engine Manufacturers Enjoying An Excellent Market

November 16, 2007

Analysis of:Bulkers fire up Wartsila | www.tradewinds.no

Finland-based Wartsila (Stuttgart:MTA.SG), as one of the few remaining large marine engine manufacturers, is enjoying an exceptionally strong market, as evidenced by their 62% jump in third quarter profits.

Excel's Time Charter Strategy Drives Underperformance

November 16, 2007

Analysis of:Excel excels | www.tradewinds.no

Excel Maritime (NYS:EXM) reported ytd earnings up 136%, but saw a significant fall in stock price as disappointed investors responded.

FFA Market Not For Inexperienced Speculators

November 16, 2007

Analysis of:Ultrapetrol posts loss | www.tradewinds.no

Ultrapetrol (Nasdaq:ULTR) reported losses of $1.8M through three quarters of 2007 primarily driven by losses on forward freight agreements (FFA.)

Bourbon Enjoying Two Exceptionally Strong Markets In Offshore And Dry Bulk

November 8, 2007

Analysis of:Twin assault from Bourbon | www.tradewinds.no

Bourbon (Paris:GBB.PA) posted year to date 2007 revenues up 31.5% as a result of the strong dry bulk and offshore support markets.