Mr. Craig Marston

GLG News by Mr. Craig Marston, Managing Director

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Shipyard Delays Will Not Significantly Alter Capesize Ship Deliveries

October 7, 2007

Analysis of:China yard delay fears | www.tradewinds.no

At the Marine Money conference in Singapore, optimistic analysts and shipowners speculated that new shipyard capacity in China will not meet delivery schedules, reducing the impact of the 215 (nearly 29% of today's fleet size) Capesize vessels due to enter the market in 2010.

OSG Is A Winner Either Way In The Jones Act Shuttle Market Battle

October 7, 2007

Analysis of:OSG makes conversion | www.tradewinds.no

Introduction of FPSO's in the Gulf of Mexico too distant for pipeline connection will require Jones Act ships for lightering operations.  Much debate has centered around whether oil majors will accept the more common ATB configuration for shuttle service or will demand shuttle tankers for safety reasons.  Either way, OSG is well positioned for this market.

Tidewater Fleet Count Is Always a Problem

October 2, 2007

Analysis of:SEC faults Tidewater | www.tradewinds.no

Tidewater (NYSE:TDW) has been ordered by the SEC to cease-and-desist activities primarily related to supply vessel assets listed as "cold stacked" that are unlikely to reenter service.  This has been a regular issue with TDW for the last 20 years.

Analysts Continue to Underestimate The Dry Bulk Shipping Market

October 2, 2007

Analysis of:Excel gets a raise | www.tradewinds.no

Cantor Fitzgerald raised their target for Excel Maritime Carriers (NYSE:EXM) based upon estimates that the Panamax and Handymax markets will be at strong levels for the balance of 2007 and 2008.  They are correct, but continue to underestimate the strength of this market.

Long-term Forecast For Kirby, and Liquid Barging, Is Very Good As Well

September 27, 2007

Analysis of:Rosy forecast for Kirby | www.tradewinds.no

Kirby Corporation (NYSE:KEX) increased its earnings guidance for 3Q07 to more than $0.60/share which will be a 25% increase yoy.  The largest liquid inland barge shipping company reports full utilization and robust demand - a situation likely to persist for many years to come.

Barge Shipping Terms For Grain Will Not Hurt ACL

September 27, 2007

Analysis of:Downgrade for ACL | www.tradewinds.no

Analysts have downgraded American Commercial Lines (NasdaqGS:ACLI) on the basis of rumors that grain shippers are refusing to agree to their recently increased demurrage charges.  Grain shipping rates are at spectacularly high levels and barges are hard to come by.  As a result, ACLI will get plenty of business on their terms.

Container fleet growth still outpacing liner shipping demand growth

September 18, 2007

Analysis of:Double-digit box growth seen | www.tradewinds.no

A consensus of expert opinions places 2008 liner shipping demand growth at a little better than 10%, with the most optimistic forecasts placing the figure as high as 13%.  However, fleet capacity will grow by over 14% during the same period.

Offshore industry poised to follow the typical boom-bust cycle

September 18, 2007

Analysis of:Offshore boom time | www.tradewinds.no

The rapid expansion of offshore production projects has led to incredible day rates for support vessels over the last year, with spot rates for AHTS vessels reaching $200,000/day at times in the North Sea and $150,000/day in the Gulf of Mexico.  As with previous booming times, owners are rushing out to order large numbers of vessels that threatens to destroy rates by 2010.

China Cosco Holdings world's largest dry bulk company

September 14, 2007

Analysis of:Cosco buys huge fleet | www.tradewinds.no

One of the worst kept secrets in dry bulk shipping was finally announced as China Cosco Holdings (HK:1919) will acquire most of the dry bulk assets of its parent corporation.  Upon completion, the company will control over 6% of the world's dry bulk fleet.

NAV not a good measure of TRMD's aquisition of OMI

September 13, 2007

Analysis of:Increased tanker values shoring up OMI purchases for Torm | www.tradewinds.no

Partly on the basis of NAV appreciation of the 25 product tankers that Torm (Nasdaq:TRMD) obtained from OMI, analysts have upgraded the company.  NAV, in the current market, is a poor indicator unless the assets are to be sold in the near future.

In dry bulk, conservative equals poor management

September 12, 2007

Analysis of:Not hot on spot | www.tradewinds.no

Buoyed by a 50% rise in 1H07 profit, Goldenport Holdings (LON:GPRT) reaffirmed their aversion to spot exposure, preferring medium and long-term charter business.  This is very poor management.

FFA market's faith in dry bulk well founded

September 7, 2007

Analysis of:Bulk futures marked up to record levels | www.tradewinds.no

Dry futures soared to record levels through early 2009, illustrating the market's faith that rates will remain strong.  Heavy new ship deliveries in 2010 is driving the uncertainty around 2009 contracts, presenting opportunities for risk takers.

Not enough to help VLCC market or hurt dry bulk market

September 5, 2007

Analysis of:More VLCCs lining up for conversion | www.tradewinds.no

Tradewinds is reporting that the number of contemplated VLCC conversions to VLOCs has increased to 27.  These conversions, IF all happen, will not overly assist the weak VLCC market or hurt the strong dry bulk market.

Golden Ocean on target

August 28, 2007

Analysis of:Golden Ocean sees bright bulker future | www.tradewinds.no

Golden Ocean (OTC:GDOCF.PK) is predicting strong rates to continue in dry bulk shipping and is therefore increasing their spot exposure next year to capture more value.  They are correct.

Effect of the dollar on shipping

August 22, 2007

Analysis of:Exchange pain for Jinhui | www.tradewinds.no

Jinhui Shipping & Transportation (Oslo:JIN.OL), despite a 94% increase in revenues and an exceptionally strong dry bulk market, saw 2Q07 net income result in a $18.3m deficit based on losses on forward foreign exchange contracts and options.

DryShips' strategy paying off

August 22, 2007

Analysis of:After hours party | www.tradewinds.no

DryShips' (NasdaqGS:DRYS) strategy of maintaining exposure to the spot market is paying off. 2Q07 earnings were up to $110.2m against an $808k loss last year.  Of this, $56.4m was from operations, with the balance from asset sales of 5 vessels.  With 52% spot exposure over the balance of 2007 and dry bulk rates at historical highs, DRYS is well positioned for excellent earnings.

ULTR continues to baffle

August 22, 2007

Analysis of:Leading player in FFA clarity | www.tradewinds.no

Ultrapetrol (NasdaqGM:ULTR) is praised by Tradewinds for their transparency in reporting FFA activity.  The article failed to explain why ULTR, with only three OBO's, is taking such risky FFA positions.

OSG charter revenue light

August 20, 2007

Analysis of:Firgures point to thin gains at OSG | www.tradewinds.no

An analysis by Tradewinds of the IPO prospectus for Overseas Shipholding Group's (NYSE:OSG) spin-off of their US Flag operations appears to show a thin $6000/day margin being split between OSG and the shipbuilder/owner Aker.  If accurate, OSG is paying too much for the bareboat charter, has very high operating costs, and has accepted very low charters for these vessels.

A glimpse into container shipping rates

August 20, 2007

Analysis of:Eastbound rates drag lines down | www.tradewinds.no

High trade growth in the Asia-EU and Asia-Middle East trade lines is the sole bright spot in liner shipping.  Conferences and individual companies are looking at creative ways to restore profitability.

OSG: IPO a great idea, but the timing is poor

August 16, 2007

Analysis of:OSG America files IPO | www.tradewinds.no

OSG (NYSE:OSG) announced plans to spin off their US-flag division as a limited partnership, offering 22.8% of the company in an IPO.  While the spin-off is a great idea in principle, the timing is poor.

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