Dr. David Lereah

GLG News by Dr. David Lereah, President

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Case-Shiller Home Price Improvement Temporary

October 27, 2009

Analysis of:Home Price Improvements May Be Short-Lived | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

According to a recent Case-Shiller home price report, the pace of annual decline in home values continues to decelerate and there are sustained monthly increases across many of the markets. Historic low mortgage rates and a government tax credit program have provided a favorable backdrop for housing activity throughout this year. Housing sector faces several obstacles that could weaken future home sales and home values.

Record Deficit Bad News For Economy and Housing

October 22, 2009

Analysis of:Record Budget Deficit Cast a Dark Shadow Over Economy and Housing | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

The federal budge deficit is now at an all-time record and is about 10 percent of GDP. The fallout of running excessive budget deficits will likely be higher interest rates and slower and erratic long-term economic growth. Both would provide an unfavorable backdrop for the nation's housing sector.

Homebuyers Expecting Too Much out of the Recovery

October 15, 2009

Analysis of:Homebuyers Overly Optimistic about Future Home Values | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

The Case-Shiller home price index has increased sharply during the past several months, suggesting that homebuyers are expecting future home values to rise. A recent homebuyer survey confirms that homebuyers expect home values to significantly rise over the next 10 years and I worry that they are becoming over exuberant once again.

Some Mortgage Companies Could be in Trouble Next Year

October 14, 2009

Analysis of:Mortgage Lending Business Expected to Sink Next Year | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association's new forecast, mortgage origination volumes could plummet next year. That could be bad news for lenders that rely heavily on the refinancing side of the business.

A Convincing Case for a Homebuyer Tax Credit Extension

October 6, 2009

Analysis of:Extend the Homebuyer Tax Credit | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

With the expiration date rapidly approaching, supporters of the tax credit fear that the housing recovery may stumble in the absence of this housing subsidy. Opponents believe that extending the program would be costly, expressing concerns about excessive government spending and a run-away federal budget deficit. They also believe that a tax credit program does not solve the problems of the housing sector; it only postpones dealing with those problems.

Case-Shiller Home Price Index Positive Development for Housing

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Home Price Report Offers Encouraging News | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

Home values, as measured by the popular S&P Case-Shiller home price index of 20 cities rose 1.6 percent in July from a month earlier. Home prices also rose in June and May on a month over month basis. The three-month steady improvement in home values indicates that the housing markets may be stabilizing.

Mortgage Applications Drop Despite Lower Mortgage Rates

September 30, 2009

Analysis of:Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey | www.mortgagebankers.org

The weekly mortgage application survey released by the MBA reported that both purchase and refinance application were down which was disappointing news for the housing markets given that mortgage rates fell during the week.

Digesting This Week's Housing Data

June 4, 2009

Analysis of:Digesting This Week's Housing Data | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

The markets have received a spate of housing reports that we need to interpret in order to better understand whether the housing industry is recovering or getting worse. The article analyzes and interprets the following reports: pending home sales; mortgage applications; mortgage delinquencies/foreclosures; Case-Shiller, FHFA, and NAR home prices.

Home Price Indices Disappoint, Real Estate Economy Watch.com

May 28, 2009

Analysis of:Home Price Indices Disappoint | www.realestateeconomywatch.com

The recent release of the Case-Shiller home price index for March was disappointing news for the housing markets. Other home price measures for April-- the FHFA purchase-only home price index and the median price for existing homes also disappointed the markets. Home price deterioration and weak home sales are keeping the housing markets from recovery.

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