Mr. David Maloni

GLG News by Mr. David Maloni, Principal

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Have the Commodity Markets Topped?

March 17, 2011

The Continuous Commodity Index set record highs pretty much from December through February but the trend has recently changed.

Coffee Market Perking

December 22, 2010

The coffee market has been trading at 13 year highs as of late around $2.30 a bushel.  Chart models are suggesting the next step for the coffee market may be $2.75.

Crude Oil and the Economy

December 9, 2010

 I noticed recently that gasoline prices in our neck of the woods are nearing $3 a gallon.  And it’s likely that we will surpass $3 in the coming weeks due to the recent run up in crude oil.  It surprises me that I haven’t heard more push back on the elevated gasoline prices and their potential draw on the US consumer.

More on Protein Supplies for 2011

December 2, 2010

This model gives us an indication of hog farmer profitability which, as one can tell, has declined sharply in recent months.  If I included charts for chicken producers, milk farmers and various other protein producers they would be similar. 

China and Commodities

November 18, 2010

A lot of attention has been given to China during the past week with the news that they will attempt to slow their economy to mitigate inflation which has had a bearish influence on the commodity markets. 

Waning Protein Farmer Margins and Pending Protein Supplies

November 11, 2010

Besides a general seasonal decline in protein prices during the fall, feed prices are currently averaging about 19% above last year and 52% above the 5 year average for this time of the year.

The Elections, Commodities and Ethanol

November 4, 2010

Ethanol in the US is made from grain corn and has had a notable influence of food market volatility in recent years.

Limited Commodity Supplies

October 28, 2010

Butter stocks have become especially short compared to the prior year averages. September 30th US butter stocks were 43% less than last year, 33% less than the five year average for the date and the smallest for any month since December 2008.

Record High Retail Protein Price Average

October 21, 2010

Retail protein prices have risen throughout 2010 reaching what we believe to be a record high for the beef, pork and chicken average.

Chicken Production Slowdown Coming?

October 14, 2010

This signals continued expansion for chicken production above prior year levels in the coming months. Is this really sustainable, however?

Will protein production expand in 2011?

September 30, 2010

As profitability for protein and dairy farmers has improved in 2010, we have been looking for signs of animal/flock expansion.

A Rationing Commodity Market

September 23, 2010

As mentioned in previous articles, we are very concerned about corn supplies and apparently the market has been as of late as well with corn futures trading north of $5 a bushel. (The average spot annual corn price from 1974 to 2006 was $2.35). What are corn futures doing above $5 a bushel? Rationing demand.

Rising Corn Prices Impact the Protein and Dairy Markets

September 16, 2010

Corn futures have reached their highest levels in nearly two years which could have far reaching effects for the food commodity markets.

Record Wholesale Protein Prices

September 9, 2010

ARA wholesale protein index made another record high in recent weeks.

Food Inflation and Ethanol

September 2, 2010

it’s ethanol that was one of the major sparks that ignited the commodity price volatility during the last few years.

Record Retail Protein Prices

August 26, 2010

Retail protein prices have risen substantially in 2010 with the beef-pork-chicken average reaching a record high in July.

Mexico Institutes Tariff's on Various US Products

August 19, 2010

Starting today, Mexico will institute a 5% tariff on imports of various US products including pork.

Butter market highest in nearly six years

August 12, 2010

In June US butter exports were 235% or roughly 9 million pounds larger than a year ago

The Fat on Record Pork Belly Prices

August 4, 2010

Spot cash belly prices set new record highs this week reaching $1.50 a pound on Tuesday. To put this in perspective, the spot belly market has risen 240% (no that’s not a typo) since the bottom made nearly a year ago.

Former Soviet Union Grain Supply Situation and US Grain Supplies

July 29, 2010

Much has been written as of late regarding the adverse weather in the former Soviet Union and the impact it is having on crops there.  This is significant because the region is the second largest wheat exporting region in the world and the developing situation there could impact a lot of commodity markets.

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