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Energy Fundamentals and their impact on Austrian

August 26, 2008

Analysis of:Austrian struggles to find strategic partner | uk.biz.yahoo.com

What we are seeing in the hypothesis stated is the results of rising energy costs.  This is important because it may herald the start of some very fundamental changes across the entire airline industry and beyond. I am more concerned about understanding the dynamics of the rising energy costs; understanding whether they are transitory.  Will they continue to rise, fall or remain static.  The time frame I am concerned about is now, for short term actions, medium term and longer term. Energy costs are rising through 2 variables, carbon pricing is working its way into energy costs but more funamentally is carbon supplies; peak oil.  Peak oil as an issue is much misunderstood.  It is simply the point at where oil suply fails to match desired demand.  That this will happen is without doubt, simply through geology, timing only is in debate by the informed. The wise investor and strategist must weigh up, understand the risk and hedge against it.

Energy Costs, Market Speculation, KIng's New Clothes

April 17, 2008

Analysis of:Rising oil pushes up wholesale prices | www.clarionledger.com

Mr. Stanley McWilliams - Independent Consultant   Your fault, my fault, nobody’s fault; ..... I share your frustration hoever there is afurther driver of energy costs which is what is driving the speculators  Like it or not we now face peak oil, when the world's oil and PRODUCTION enters terminal decline.  Many take comfort in their faith the oil industry will continue to meet unconstrained demand, we can't.  Demand continues to rise people talk of carbon, many of us are focussing on energy and from we will get it. On share specuflation consider 2 layers of economic activity. Those that do, we make, distribute install goods and keep the economy rolling.  These industries generate the cash and real wealth creating bank and pensions deposits. Those that specuate.  They play with the money we are creating.  All they do is move money around, vast ammounts.  They do not actually add tangible value only perceived, i.e what others will pay.  Get it wrong they crash and we burn.

Hidden Risks of Biofuels

April 17, 2008

Analysis of:Fuel Choices, Food Crises and Finger-Pointing | www.nytimes.com

On the face of it it seems a great solution exmained in the present and in isolation.  Things are not so simple when examined in the whole.  World uses energy as electricity, gases and liquids.  98% is derived fossil fuels, some 88mtoe equivalent/day. The sceptre of declining fossil production is well evidenced and documented, we may have reached peak geological production lmits against rising energy demand so there is divergence between production and supply.  As this increases fossil fuel costs rise. Using agricultural products to produce liquid fuels pegs food costs firmly in the energy basket costs, great for farmers.  The impact of an energy customer competing for agricultural produce were predicted and becoming clear.  We see the effects of this as world population rises and food shortages are agravated.  This will get worse. A growing backlash, environmentally, food shortages and sustainability as each energy crop needs inputs to produce them with habitat detsruction

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