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Bombardier's C-Series Bombs Again, Racking Up Zero Orders at Farnborough

July 26, 2010

Analysis of:Mitsubishi misses out on plane orders at Farnborough | www.google.com

Farnborough International Airshow (FIA) has always had a bit of an identity crisis. Is it a trade show (there are conferences galore) or a flying display? As always, the true answer is it's a bit of both, and last week's FIA was no exception; although the flying was pretty lame and tame (excepting the F-22, which looked stunning), the 'trade' aspect -- the pressing-the-flesh angle -- was more positive and sincere than in many recent years. Unless you're Canadian, of course...

Aerospace 2010: the Only Way is Up

April 5, 2010

Irrespective of production delays and errors which have plagued Boeing, embarrassed EADS and angered Sukhoi, amongst others, and despite the latest round of largely European airline spitting the dummy (aka biting the hand that feeds you rather well), it is clear that the commercial aerospace industry's resilience has once again come to the fore. Why else would Boeing be upping production rates and Airbus reversing cuts it made only five months ago (what happened to forecasting, guys?)...

Boeing Readies Industry for Anti-Airbus WTO Decision

March 23, 2010

Analysis of:Boeing Statement Regarding WTO's Final Decision on Airbus Subsidies | us.mg2.mail.yahoo.com

It is rare that a PR announcement in itself is worthy of verbatim repetition, but here below, Tod Austell, John Dern and Charlie Miller at Boeing have surpassed even their own previous high standards with what amounts to a staggeringly economical and incisive depiction of the implications of Airbus' non-commercial approach to aircraft manufacturing as well as sounding a dire warning as to what this sort of flagrant abuse of agreed rules can mean for an increasingly global aerospace industry.

EADS Graciously Accepts A400M Bailout

February 28, 2010

Analysis of:EADS accepts A400M financing offer | tripolipost.com

Given the increased recent amount of aerospace baloney masquerading as 'insight' on the internet (but not on GLG News, of course, where standards are far higher), I thought it might be fun to introduce some objectivity into the mysterious aerospace world we inhabit here. So this is what the tongue-in-cheek Tripoli Post has to say about Airbus' latest but not yet greatest fiasco, the A400M. Warning: do not read this while drinking a hot liquid...

Chastened ILFC Heads Back to the Money Markets

February 24, 2010

Analysis of:AIG Plane Unit Seeks $750 Million Loan Through BofA, Goldman | www.bloomberg.com

ILFC needs money. Good grief. Tomorrow's Thursday. Stone the crows. Whoever would have thunk it?How many investors have been burned by this company's slick presentations over the years? What's ILFC's cumulative debt? Meanwhile, former ceo and self-styled Mr Aircraft Leasing Steve Udvar-Hazy is at it again, now proclaiming he's at the helm of a new ship with new customers and new deals aplenty.Let's hope for his sake the ship's not like a French aircraft carrier with dodgy propellers.

Hope for Bizjet Market Growth in Asia-Pacific

February 16, 2010

Analysis of:Rising demand for private jets in Asia Pacific | www.privatejetdaily.com

The numbers might still be small, but it would be foolish to overlook this potential new market. Asia-Pacific bizjets, like Florida snowstorms and altruistic cats, aren't exactly well-known phenomena, but that doesn't mean they don't and more importantly can't occur, does it...?!

Flutter: the Seemingly Innocent Concept That Can Still Kill a Program

February 13, 2010

Analysis of:First Boeing 787 Dreamliner set to start flutter tests | blog.seattlepi.com

Benign though it may sound, 'flutter' is an aircraft designer's nightmare and one of the reasons it's up so early in the Boeing 787 order of flight certification issues to treat. Without unnecessarily going into the technical detail, flutter trials are the most important early element of any new program and as such, the 787 has already reached its first major milestone. All it has to do now is pass the tests, and supply chains worldwide will be holding their breath until it does...

Another Survey Points to Global Industrial Recovery

February 13, 2010

Analysis of:Corporate CEOs are more upbeat about recovery | www.latimes.com

Surveys can tell you anything if they are interpreted according to your own fashion. But when a respected body such as the 76-year-old Business Council's 113 CEO-level members suggest as a body that "things are getting better", then perhaps they just are.

"Get Well" Time is Just Around the Corner

February 12, 2010

Analysis of:Soar High With Boeing And Friends | www.forbes.com

Boeing and its national and international supplier base are on an upswing thanks to both the military and the Dreamliner, not forgetting the promise of the 747-8 in both freighter and passenger versions. With due deference to Ian Dury's classic 1979 ballad, these truly are "Reasons to be Cheerful" for the investment community as well as for those long-suffering supply chains. "Get Well" time for Boeing suppliers will start this year and accelerate throughout the decade, as things stand today.

Top 10 Aerospace Stories of Early 2010

February 11, 2010

Analysis of:Murtha death opens way for new leader of critical defense committee | fcw.com

The aerospace industry often seems to be roughly 90% hype and 10% effort (think of all the uninformed blogs out there), at least by the time so-called 'stories' hit the media. Rather than look backwards, however, here are our thoughts on the Top 10 commercial and military aerospace stories which will have a bearing on 2010 from an overall investment point-of-view.

American Airlines Throwing Dollars Away, Again

February 10, 2010

Analysis of:FAA Eyes Hefty Fines for American Airlines | www.cnbc.com

Despite its current financial straits, American Airlines looks set to have once again incurred the regulatory wrath of the FAA and could face fines of $10m+ for recent maintenance problems with its fleet of increasingly decrepit MD-80s. It's only money though, right...?

Aerospace Investment Possibilities Proliferate as Equity Markets Strengthen

February 10, 2010

Analysis of:Aircraft suppliers rally on generally stronger equity markets. Boeing, Embraer and MTU lead the way | www.centreforaviation.com

Aerospace investment opportunities abound providing investors continue to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff (see below). EADS' shares are up maybe 1% on a year ago, while Brazil's Embraer reflect a 44%+ gain and Boeing a 55% increase. Leasing companies, volatile as always, have their moments too but, apart from the odd major collapse à la ILFC, this business remains strong and will continue to attract investor equity in all the right places.

With No New Aircraft in Sight, Airbus May Also Have to Spin Off Military A400M

February 2, 2010

Analysis of:A400M buyer nations eye deal with EADS this week | uk.reuters.com

Having so thoroughly mismanaged the A400M military transporter that European governments are sick to the back teeth of the whole thing, Airbus in 2010 faces yet another year of misery and misplaced 'confidence' amid mounting evidence that it has lost its ability to build new aircraft successfully. With the USAF tanker contest ready to reopen, this inability is clearly significant on a global not just European scale. Time to spin-off the A400M into a new division, guys, or to bin it altogether.

Top Five US Carriers Have Less than $16bn in Cash & $48bn in Debt...

February 2, 2010

Analysis of:Top 5 Stocks In The Major Airline Industry With The Highest Cash | www.benzinga.com

Cash-in-hand is like a photo rather than a video -- a snapshot of how business is today (without of course taking into account debt). Consider just how little reserve cash #5 in the following list (US Airways Group) actually has...

Airbus A400M Lowers the Bar for Program Management

January 29, 2010

Analysis of:Germany mulls loan plan as A400M talks resume | www.reuters.com

If you thought the Airbus A380 (years late and $15bn+ over-budget) was a study in how not to run an aircraft program, you'd have been correct. Except that now, the study has been updated and is called the A400M -- arguably the most mismanaged aerospace fiasco since the Anglo-French Concorde (common factor: former Airbus then EADS CEO Noël Forgeard, he of the privileged-information, share-selling, trouser-lining persuasion).

ILFC Break-up Major Step Closer as CEO Udvar-Hazy Prepares to Bail

January 26, 2010

Analysis of:AIG scraps plan to sell airline leasing unit | www.reuters.com

ILFC ceo Steve Udvar-Hazy, the 64-year-old who has led one of the world's top two aircraft lessors since its inception nearly 40 years ago, is about to bail. Having created a monster that no-one wants to feed, loaded with debt and without a serious white-knight buyer anywhere to be found, Udvar-Hazy is packing his bags and considering starting all over again. He won't find it so easy, especially since "The Buck Stops Elsewhere" isn't exactly going to work this time round as the corporate credo.

Unlike 50-seat Jets, Turboprops Just Refuse to Go Away

January 25, 2010

Analysis of:Prop plane maker ATR sees signs of recovery | www.reuters.com

With crude oil prices having risen 75% since a year ago to this weekend's level of roughly $75/barrel, turboprop aircraft made by ATR and Bombardier continue to attract attention from airlines with a high proportion of sectors of less than roughly 600-800 miles. This doesn't mean turboprops are the way ahead (and talk of 100-seat ATRs or Bombardier Q400s is just that -- talk) but it does underlie yet another aerospace fundamental -- bad news for some is almost always good news for others.

UK Bans Yemeni Flights while Airbus Sells them A320s...

January 21, 2010

Analysis of:Yemeni airlines seal 700 mln dollar deal for 10 new Airbus 320s | www.monstersandcritics.com

The European aerospace industry is alive and well and growing closer together with every passing 24hrs. All you need to do to envisage it is to tire yourself out, close your eyes, fall asleep and have a good, deep aviation dream -- because in the real wide-awake world, the European aerospace industry does not exist. Just ask Airbus...

Aerospace Recession is Over-Hyped

January 14, 2010

Analysis of:Leasing markets up, bullish outlook from Aercap – Suppliers Share Wrap | www.centreforaviation.com

Behind the scenes, the aerospace industry is far from grinding to a halt, despite the current difficult economic environment. Boeing and Airbus between them delivered (and therefore were paid for) more than 970 aircraft in 2009 while further down the food chain leasing companies such as Aercap are being kept busy. It's not all doom and gloom, in other words...

British Airways Offers JAL European Lifeline

January 13, 2010

Analysis of:British Airways steps in to try to salvage Japan Airlines | business.timesonline.co.uk

As mentioned here just three days ago, British Airways (BA) needs a Far Eastern partner if it is to have continuing global pretensions and has now, according to reports, made overtures to destitute Japan Air Lines (JAL) about possible Asia-Europe collaboration. You read it here first...

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