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U.S. Bond Insurers are the Primary Causation of Writedowns of One of France's Largest Financial Insititutions

September 2, 2008

Analysis of:Credit Agricole Quarterly Net Drops 94% on Writedowns | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.Gains are positive after easing concerns that the Financial Insitution will need to add additional capitalization. 2. The credit - writedown collapse is the causation of Major Markdowns - that hampered the Financial Strength of many Global Financial Insitutions. 3.Reorganization of cost structures at the retail-banking and branch levels of the organization has enhanced the management of this Financial matter. 4.A Positive Influence has , now, evolved - Investor Support for the Institutions Solvency. 5.Achieving this goal - A reorganization of both Caylon and Credit Agricole : A viable solution ending in a favorable result for both the Investor and Management.

A Further Set-Back for Japanese Consumer Finance - A Scalling - Back of Consumer Lending!

September 1, 2008

Analysis of:Citigroup, Promise to Ally on Japan Consumer Lending | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.Many Consumer Loan applications will or may be referred back to another : Subject to further Identification. 2.Japanese Consumer lenders are Struggling to meet profit expectations. 3.Citigroup's Consumer Finance divisions expects to dispose of billions of global assets as they relate to the Sub-Prime-Mortgage Market Collapse. There DOES not appear to be a Bright future in the Japanese Marketplace. 4.The problem has been identified as " Loans Outstanding" and the answer presents itself i discussions to sell or transfer all existing customer accounts. 5.The objective: Test a program that provides Alternatives to customers in the application process.

Acquisitions by Commerzbank are NOT Riskless Transactions!

August 28, 2008

Analysis of:Commerzbank Plans to Sell Linde Stake, Manager-Magazin Reports | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1. Commerzbank may issue New Stock To Finance all Transactions, thereby causing a further dilution of earnings per share. 2.A Great deal on unclearity surrounding the strategy of mananegement. 3.The salient issue is a percentage sale of large proportions in the stake in a viable entity to Finance a possible Takeover with a certain amount of uncertainity. 4.There appears to be a discrepancy between Value of the Euros for the  completion of the transaction: 6 billion euros vs 9 billion euros. A major illustration of Financial distress. 5.The Deal may, still, prove to be unprofitble as the write-downs of debt portfolio's due to the wake of the sub-prime crisis.

Have Bank's Revealed Everything? Default Protection is Under - Rated!

August 20, 2008

Analysis of:Bank Debt Risk Rises as Writedowns, Losses Exceed $500 Billion | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.High Risk And High-Yield credit ratings have risen by 9 basis points - an all time high. 2.Bank losses are restricting lending, the Financial Market Place of Companies , as well as, consumers.The End Result is the tightening of al lending Standards - Inevitable! 3.Credit Swaps have risen 1.25 basis points and "More to Come"! 4.Sub-prime debts have become "Toxic"!- The Market is falling precipitously with no end in site. 5.It may appear as though the banking Financial Insitutions have created the appesarance of continually underestimating losses. The answer - A heightened sense of internal and external controls. 6.If Immediate action is NOT undertaken - a collapse of the public opinion is eminent and disastorous to thr international Financial Marketplace.

Rogue Traders create a Monumental Scandal in the Investment Banking Industry!

August 19, 2008

Analysis of:Credit Suisse hit by £5.6m FSA fine after sub-prime rogue trading | www.guardian.co.uk

Implications: 1.Prompt action by Credit Suisse avoided a MUCH Larger Fine by the Regulatory authorities by cooperating and providing concessions. 2.Intersting Implication - Investors have become distrustful of credit risk ratings related to complex investment alternatives, which has become a world-wide scenerio. 3.The high Ethical Standards  of Credit Suisse have been called into question and addressed by management. The question at hand - " Will this practice begin to stop and end the deterioration of the capital markets"? 4.The exact cause has been determined: Supervision Failures and the Lack of Controls!A preventable Scenerio by the Management Team! 5.Internal Investigations have begun and the External Regulatory Authorities will pursue such activity - Monitored with extensive zeal. 6.This sudden and unexpected scandal dies have the potential of undermining marketplace confidence!

Earningd Plunge At Least 95 % : An Indicator of The Affect of Debt-Related Investments!

August 18, 2008

Analysis of:Bank Debt Risk Rises as Writedowns, Losses Exceed $500 Billion | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.Bank losses are a severe restriction on lending practices of Financial Institutions. 2.Severe Financial and Economic damage to corporations and the individual consumer as delinquencies on home and commercial loans rise. 3.Many U.S banking institutions , now have, a substantial deteriortion of their capitalization base and related " Market Value"! 4.The rise in Debt Speculation indicates a severe perception of the quality of debt assumed by Financial Insitutions. 5.The International Financial Marketplace may expect to have a 10 to 1 credit - default swap contract as a measure of protection against such a default. 6.The basis point may , easily, fall to an incremental difference of 1.25 basis points to 134.5 - a high incremental difference.  

Japanese Insurance Carriers are denied Growth Opportunities In their Domestic Markets!

August 18, 2008

Analysis of:Japan Insurers Look Abroad as Profits, Premiums Drop | www.bloomberg.com

Imlpications: 1.An appearance of the Lack of Economic Growth Opportunities in the Domestic Markerplace has caused a drop in premiums and, hence, profits. 2.The two (2) salient issues the demographic changes in population and economic growth. 3.A rapidly aging in the country's population may be the motivating factor for considerations given to the conversion to stock ownership to enhance finance acquisitions. 4.The most dramatic changes that would cause a problem of this magnitude: 1. A declining birthrate, 2.This decline will result in a reduction for the demand for insurance - hence, a reduction and profit. 5. The domestic marketplace in this country is stagnating and , as a consequence, a 'New " growth strategy will be difficult to achieve. 6. The key to success will be cost effectiveness,risk management and, the diversification of earnings.

UBS Losses become Severe causing a "Re-engineering" of Business Components!

August 14, 2008

Analysis of:UBS to Split Investment Bank From Wealth Management | www.bloomberg.com

Implications: 1.The Causation of further losses : the Sub-prime Mortgage Crisis. 2.A Major change in Management to salvage the Net Losses of the Shareholder. 3.Net Money Outflows far exceed Cash Inflows - the Ultimate affect is Major Write-Downs by the Insitution. 4.Causation: Deterioration of a continuating Credit Market Turbalance - U.S residential Real Estate and the overall Credit Crisis. 5.UBS is required to make major changes in its Strategic Direction and will require " a comprehensive program to re-engineer it's business processes". 6.The "One Firm" business model is no longer an effective alternative for this Financial Institution. Material changes are mandated by Management.

Interest Rate Yields: Balance Return On Investment,Safety and Liquidity.

May 19, 2008

Analysis of:Thin Yields Weigh on Investors | online.wsj.com

Implications: 1.Safe Investments will provide Preservation of Capital but, provide a Low Rate of Return - Trade Off as it relates to Risk. 2.Recessionary pressures are , likely, to remain unstable. It is a question of Risk vs Reward. Safety is an option for the Investor. 3.Causation - the Federal Government has taken one of a number of approaches to stimulte the economy by a change in the Benchmark of interest ratesat which banks lend money. The Banking Industry does have many other options to pursue. 4.The average consumer must be able to access their money but, thy will have such access at a very high price: lower interest rates. 5.There are Investment Options to this type of Financial Strategy , however, the average consumer is not "Aware" of the same. 6.An alternative: Straddled Options but, these types of strategies make a very basic assumption of risk and knowledgeability. Suitabilty of the investors' goals are at stake.

The "Credit Crisis" will continue to Reverberate: AIG and Similar Insitutions Record Losses!

May 12, 2008

Analysis of:AIG Posts $7.8B Loss For 1Q | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com

Implications: 1.Many Regional Financial Institutions have reported similar losses and a Plan for Re-Capitalization. 2. Poor results causation: A. Stock Market Volatility, B.The Credit Crisis and, C. Weakness in the Housing Market. 3.The ESTIMATES , so state, that the sub-prime matter is 75 % to 85  % resolved. In essence, the adverserial affect in the Financial Markets should subside. 4.Most Financial Institutions failed to adjust to the potential of the severity of UNREALIZED valuation losses and a Decline in the Value of their Investment Portfolio. An error in Foresight? 5.The Shares of the Insitution are , now, trading at a point just above a ten (10) year low point. 6.The overall affect on the Financial Marketplace is a fall-out of about 40 % in price per share . At a point in time , the concept of Unrealized losses/gains will become Realized - the basis of accounting criteria.

A Structured Credit Card Transaction and a Strategic Alliance with Investment Banking.

May 12, 2008

Analysis of:Target in credit card deal with JPMorgan | www.ft.com

Implications: 1. Advantageous Strategic Positioning For Target's Credit Card Portfolio by transferring the "Risk" , while maintaining "Control" of operations. 2.Potential Up-Side to JP Morgan is a controlling strategy, which allow the Investment Bank to intervene at an undeclosed breakpoint - take control of porfolio and receive a discounted rate of return of 7%. 3.The ENTIRE transaction is dependent upon Future Ratings - Standard & Poors and Moody's . A possible exit strategy for the private investor. 4.The Transaction , if completed, will add Substantial Liquidity for the Retailer and Credit Risk Exposure to the Investment Banker. 5. Strategic Partnership Alliances are not functionable without an escape clause - A matter of sound business practice. 6."Timing is of the Essence" - Credit Risk Exposure appears to have no Time horizon.

Countrywide Financial: A Management and Regulatory Failure!

May 9, 2008

Analysis of:B. of A. should exit Countrywide deal: analyst | www.marketwatch.com

Implications: 1.The Up-Side of Bank Of America walking away from the Deal - a positive Earnings per Share Ratio for Shareholders.A potential positive savings of the current staus: 2.0% to 9.0%. 2.One other Up-Side - Eliminate a remote possibilty of having to raise additional Capital and maintain an equitable Liquidity position. 3.Impact on Countrywide - Bankruptcy with No Government Intervention.Management with the Deep Pockets must increase the Capital Base with their Personal Assets.Ignorant, at best. 4.Renegotiating the Deal will only magnify the impact on the Financial Marketplace and ALL players in the Financial System may be forced to re-capitalize. A further deterioration is unnecessary! 5.Countrywide's credit quality has a CONSISTENT methodology of Destruction to the Financial Marketplace and the overall economy. 6.A Statement of Historical Content - " Bank of America should, indeed, walk away from the Deal and Apply Sound Business Concepts".

Financial Marketplace requires an Increase in Capital Reserves: Losses Abound.

May 7, 2008

Analysis of:Countrywide loses $893 million in 1Q on rising loss reserve | biz.yahoo.com

Implications: 1.Severe downturn in the housing market and credit-related charges require an Increase in Reserves as a cushion for possible losses. 2.A windfall in the housing boom market reverses the direction of the Institution: Profitability becomes a hugh loss burden. 3.Forecasts DO NOT meet Earnings - hence a monumental plunge in Revenue and Shareholder Equity. 4.A loss in Earnings is the salient issue in the abrupt halt in a merger with Bank of America. 5. Warrant claim potential adds additional strain to the firm's capital structure. 6.Executive decision-making/forecasting is inappropriate by way loosing sight of shareholder earnings. 7.Accordingly, executive pay-out and severance is more than just likely to be scrutinized by the regulatory authorities in the near future.

Undervaluation of Shares: Expectation of a New Target Price.

May 7, 2008

Analysis of:Ahead of the Bell: Analyst upgrades Wachovia to 'Buy' | biz.yahoo.com

Implications: 1.A "Buy from a Hold" target price? Expectations are high and , perhaps, enhanced speculation. 2.The basis of formulation is a cut in dividends to the shareholder and common/preferred stock offerings.Liquidity is non-existent! 3.Commercial Losses are "Reasonable"?.Due Diligence must be exercised as the stakes in the game are customer service and product sales. 4.There are , clearly, additional exposures due to the exposure of significant credit card losses. 5.If additional moves to raise capital become a mandate - " How will the Financial Marketplace assess Return On Investment and a Return Of Investment at a Fully Capitalized Rate"?. 6. Analysts' ,as a school of thought, might want re-think a stated position for the overall benefit of the Market: A value-added Proposition to be gained!

Sovereign Fund:A Disappointment is on the Horizon

May 5, 2008

Analysis of:Saudis to launch $5.3bn sovereign fund | www.ft.com

Implications: 1.A First atempt to enter the Financial Arena without the appropriate Due Diligence may, likely, be a failure. 2.A Strategic Formulation of portfolio management for the purpose of a long-term Rate of Return , which may not materialize and, thereby,become a hazard to the Industry. 3.The hazard presents itself in the form of an asset base : the commodity of Oil and relevant fluctuations. 4.A possible backlash due to the size of the asset used to generate the acquisition of Investment Wealth in the West.Liquidity vs a Long Term Strategy is a Financial Contradiction. 5.Specific requirements must be met and a conservative view may provide the basis for a protective analogy. 6.The Non-Disclosure of the Total Assets of the Investor does provide a preview of conceptual investment philosophy in both bilateral and multilateral companies.Full Disclosure is not evident. 

Price per Share drops - Citigroup Inc MUST bolster Depleted Capital!

May 2, 2008

Analysis of:Citigroup to Sell $3 Billion in Stock | www.nytimes.com

Implications: 1.Stock Offerings are Hugh - additional capital is needed after a recent Capitalization of $37B. Endless Re-capitalization? 2.Excessive losses on Mortgages, Bonds and Loans are materializing at a faster pace than expected by management. 3 The Insitution in question will not be able to avoid a "Forced" stock sale. 4.A Dilution of Earnings per Share for the stockholder is inevitable. 5.An alternative for management may be to broaden the base of Capital Investors'. 6.The New Equity will raise the Tier 1 ratio to appx 8.6% - well capialized for time horizon at hand in the financial marketplace? Questionable, at best!

The Current Credit Marketplace: Are Traditional Banking Insitutions Reputable?

April 28, 2008

Analysis of:Corroded to the core: How a staid Swiss bank let ambitions lead it into folly | www.ft.com

Implications: 1.Investment Banking Division exposes the Institution to incrediable losses by way of securities linked to the troubled US housing market. 2.The most salient issue is: The inability to sell the same and an, ultimate loss in capitalization. 3.Decision - Making by Management: a clear lack of foresight, innovation and illfated, at the very best! 4.Dysfunctional Management Structure has made the major contribution to a "Fire Sale"? A preventable, tragic error in judgement. A correction is inevitable , however, it may be too late. 5.Identifiable risks have gone without notice: the Credit Risk of the borrower AND the Market Risk , which is defined as the exposure of asset fluctuations on the Financial Statements. 6.The Major Default is the use of Bank Deposits to provide the capital for the purcase of faulty assets.

Banking Industry: Ownership by US Insitutions or Foreign Entities

April 28, 2008

Analysis of:Some Banks Rethink Investments as Money Tightens | www.nytimes.com

Implications: 1.A Troubled Financial Banking Marketplace COULD lead to the concept of US Capitalization, which is the basis of our Financial Heritage. 2.American Bankers in discussions with Foreign Governmental Entities is considered to be Realistic? 3.The Salient Issues on the table - "What is our Core and Non-Core Business?". The answer Should be obvious and revealing. 4.Many Asian Economies have restrictions on foreign bank business and impose a Limitation. Clarity of negotiations is of the utmost importance. 5.If the US Insitutions do , in fact, enter upon such a strategy - caution is immenent!!! 6.Western Baking Institutions should not abandon their identity - a plan for succession must not be abandoned.

A Substantial of the Firm's Preferred Stock: Voting Rights and Capital Infusion

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Double Take: JPMorgan Quietly Raising $6 Billion | www.housingwire.com

Implications: 1.A search for Capital in a Down - Side Financial Marketplace , perhaps, a signal of Material Undercapitalization. 2.Due Diligence and Disclosure should be of paramount importance. 3.Tainted Financial Posture caused by mortgage -  related losses and write downs due to all credit market classes. A Rule or Exception? 4.Perceptions of the Firms' Earnings Reports are equivalent to being a half - full glass. 5.A "Work-Out " plan appears to have gone by the way - side and an alternate strategy has been adopted by management. 6. The Institution has, indeed, filed a "Curious - Looking" Preliminary Prospectus filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission  which may require additional,material disclosures. 

"Cherry Picking" - Choose the Assets and Credit Rating"

April 21, 2008

Analysis of:Citi allows loan ‘cherry picking’ | www.ft.com

Implications: 1.Purchase an asset at a deep discount - well below origination value. A menu of leveraged loans to private equity and the opportunity for profitability. 2.A list of loans purchased for $.10 on the dollar ( $1.00 ) , in addition to assumption of debt.Value-added to the puchaser by way of risk mitigation. 3.The Financial Institutions' objective: Eliminate the Financial Exposure and gain some cash. "Off Balance Sheet" Financing. 4."Innovation" - avoid the Credit Crisis by strengthening a firm's Capitalization. 5.A further dilution of shareholder equity - a possible consequence. 6.The issue of shareholder "Rights" should be considered as the search for New Capital evolves: a complex issue with an argument to be made and resolved by the Financial Marketplace.

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