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Oil Production Capacity in Iraq

March 8, 2010

Analysis of:Iraq Unlikely To Meet Oil Target | www.iraqupdates.com

Oil production capacity in Iraq is critical to many concerns and always questioned. The answers to the country's production capacity or target are varied and subject to the conditions underground and above the ground, plus the pace and extent of international participation in the efforts. There are some scenarios ahead of the country. There are some uncertainties over the likelihood now and will remain in the years to come.

China-Central Asian Gas Pipeline: Success and Pitfalls

February 13, 2010

Analysis of:Pipeline brings Asian gas to China | www.ft.com

On the 14th December 2009, Chinese president Hu Jingtao visited Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to discuss with his counterparts of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan the further areas of closer cooperation in energy. During the visit, the three leaders switched on the early outflow of natural gas from the Amu Darya through the China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline Transportation System to China.

Exxon is back for huge assets in West Africa

October 8, 2009

Analysis of:Exxon possible acquisition of Kosmos assets in Jubilee | af.reuters.com

As many reported on the 6th October, Exxon Mobil has reportedly inked a $4 billion deal with Kosmos Energy for the latter assets of Jubilee, offshore Ghana. The news alerted many observers a lot and a clear message that Oil SuperMajor is back for its highly expected resources in West Africa, especially scrambling for huge discovery in the region.

CNPC Pipeline Ambitions in Africa

August 11, 2009

Analysis of:China's CNPC mulls oil pipeline projects in north, west Africa | www.forbes.com

It is true that CNPC/China is mulling multiple oil pipeline routes from some land locked countries - Niger and Chad - to Red Sea, Meditterranean Sea and Gulf of Guinea. These efforts would be critical options for those oil producing countries in the region, and more importantly, make CNPC/China stronger presence in Africa and its linkages with the rest of the world.

Russia faces China for support

February 17, 2009

Analysis of:RPT-Russia seeks to unlock $25 bln China oil loan talks | www.reuters.com

This lasting negotiating matter mirrors how trouble Russia is facing and what China has learned from its experiences dealing with Russia in the past. The possible deal covers financing, oil trading, and cross border cooperation in the oil and gas resources. Russia needs China now much more than China does.

Tentative Measures for Stimulus of the Petroleum Industry in China

February 16, 2009

Analysis of:China may mull tax cuts, subsidies for oil firms -paper | www.reuters.com

That is true and released recently to the market. For sure, some key policies (including direct subsidies and reduction of oil windfall tax) and measures under internal discussion led by NDRC will be extremely helpful to save CNPC and Sinopec in 2009. Their downstream sectors will receive subsidies from the government gradually after the formal policy inked shortly. The thresholds of oil windfall tax levied could be increased from $40/bbl to $50-60/bbl. No precise calculation is available now for the public and several packages of schemes are subject to final approval in the wake of green light from ministry of finance.

This is a right move for both

February 16, 2009

Analysis of:Sinopec, Aramco May Agree on Oil Supply, Refinery (Update1) | www.bloomberg.com

Because of huge, stable and growing consumption at home, Sinopec will continue to increase its import commitments from the Middle East, Saudi Arabia particularly. This move is an important complementary part of its overseas expansion. It indicates an increasingly important swap strategy (between market in China and resources in Saudi) unfolded and implemented by both sides to a greater extent now.

Higher Imports of Its Use Predicted

February 16, 2009

Analysis of:UPDATE 2-China sees imports at 60 pct of oil use by 2020 | www.reuters.com

Foreign oil dependency in 2008 approched 50% of its total use. The number will be same for 2009 given the higher inventory and lower demand. However, higher than 60% of foreign oil is predicted for the year 2020 given the stagnant domestic oil output.

NOC-IOC Partnerships required in Iraq

February 9, 2009

Analysis of:Iraq Organizes Workshop for Oil Companies | www.iraqupdates.com

Iraq is the large oil resource rich country after Saudi and Iran. International participation in the oil and gas sector in the country is seriously required. But the interest gap between the country and IOCs must be removed as soon as possible. Since the workshop held by the host country, the  IOCs and INOCs should seriously sit down for cooperation.  

Chinese Oil Demand: driving forces and trends

February 9, 2009

Analysis of:China's oil demand unlikely to decline 2004 | www.chinadaily.com.cn

Description of Driving Forces Many institutions project Chinese economic growth would be continuing at two-digital pace despite of snow disaster in February and unprecedented earth quack in middle of the year and financial crisis. Transport demand accounting 52 percent of total oil demand will continue to grow steadily, civil vehicles possession has kept its growing pace even facing some new regulation constraints during Olympic Game. Diesel and gasoline will remain spearhead the oil demand growth and will keep this pace into 2010. The growth of the oil demand is also contributed by relatively low domestic oil pricing.  

BP's Deal with Its Russian Partners Is Positive

September 15, 2008

Analysis of:TNK-BP chief will leave Russian oil venture in deal to end dispute | www.iht.com

The widely watched deal was concluded positively as a win-win solution. It is good for BP of course to maintain its existing strategic interests in Russia with great expansion momentum. Its Russian partners are satisfied with the terms they reached. I believe BP is smart to move two steps ahead when move back one step for this result. The greatest implication of the deal is on international participation in the energy sector in Russia in the future. As I wrote, it is the time for international oil companies (IOCs) to rethink their business behaviors with Russian counterparts. TNK-BP is the right case in point.

CNPC Returns again

September 10, 2008

Analysis of:CNPC to develop Ahdab oil field in Iraq | www.ogj.com

As reported on the media, CNPC has inked its deal with Iraq for oil development of al-Hdabe field, about 200km south to Baghdad. This service type contract instead of PSA valued $3 billion for total investments has great impact on Western investors who are working in Iraq simply because the deal is in favor of the host government and forms a benchmark for western energy firms when negotiating with Iraq. CNPC, having its own explanations though, has ignited western woes.

It Is Time To Rethink Partnership With Russian Counterparts In The Oil Sector

July 31, 2008

Analysis of:Oil: BP's Russian venture put in doubt after staff are pulled out | www.guardian.co.uk

The well known BP case is a clear response from its Russian partnering Oligarch because of conflicts of interests in developing the TNK-BP in the future. It is a serious signal for international oil companies (IOCs)  when partnering with Russian Oligarchs. It is Boards' job to rethink their strategies towards Russia in the future. Clearly, Russian government keeps away from the fighting at the JV firm. Be not mix this with government intent. Any diplomatic effort is in vain.

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