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Why Goldman Should Not Settle

April 26, 2010

Analysis of:Goldman Sachs: The $64,000 Question | seekingalpha.com

Based on publically available information, it appears that Goldman acted reasonably and within market accepted norms.

Is Commercial Real Estate a Slow-Motion Train Wreck in Process?

November 24, 2009

Analysis of:Investors wise to be wary of 'generational opportunities' in real estate market | www.dallasnews.com

We built capacity for the robust growth years of the Great Moderation, the 25 year period between 1982 and 2007. The new normal will have lower growth rates which will result in excess capacity and therefore lower valuations. These lower valuations have yet to be recognized but will be required to on refinancings - most commercial real estate is financed by 10 year mortgages - resulting in the slow-motion train wreck.

Securitization: Back to its Roots

July 14, 2009

Analysis of:Securitisation reinvented to cut costs | www.ft.com

Securitization started off as a technique that was used to help clients achieve their corporate finance objectives. We are now seeing a return to that approach. It is refreshing, long overdue, and will be rewarding for the industry.

Will The Recent Credit Card Regulations Infact Be Bad For Consumers?

May 21, 2009

Analysis of:What credit card legislation means for you | moneyfeatures.blogs.money.cnn.com

Limiting the flexibility of banks will result in fewer consumers being offered credit cards and they will be offered with more stringent terms.

Is TALF Good For Investors?

March 24, 2009

Analysis of:To TALF, or not to TALF | money.cnn.com

The TALF program substantially improves the risk-reward profile for investors. This, per se, is good.

Why Banks Are Agreeable to Cramdown Legislation

January 9, 2009

Analysis of:Citigroup, Senators in Talks to Let Judges Modify Mortgages | online.wsj.com

Banks are dropping their opposition to cramdowns because they: (1) recognize loan modifications are essential in this market to reduce their losses; and (2) are themselves substantially restricted in being able to make modifications on the vast majority of loan mortgages that have been securitized. The proposed bankruptcy legislation is suboptimal as voluntary loan modifications, if banks are freed up to provide them, can be a more potent solution as it has wider applicability which is what is needed for the market to heal. Because of its limited applicability, by itself, this legislative amendment will have little impact on the housing market.

Is Now The Time To Buy Suprime MBS?

December 22, 2008

Analysis of:Buy Subprime-Mortgage Bonds on Government Action, JPMorgan Says | www.bloomberg.com

While this advice may generally be sound, anyone wanting to use it, whether as investor or to assess the likely impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, needs to fully understand how best to use it. This is particularly important as there appears to be several apparently contradictory reference or pricing points in the market today. These seemingly contradictory reference points actually represent a landscape of different risk positions (or securities) and understanding them provides a richer understanding of the whole and is essential to make the best decisions.

Should the Government Help Homeowners?

November 18, 2008

Analysis of:U.S. Steps Up Help for Homeowners | online.wsj.com

Government  help for homeowners is proposed to try and alleviate the public resentment that has arisen because of the $700 billion bailout of the financial system. Such help is not required and indeed risks setting  dangerous precedents.

JP Morgan's Prudent Move

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Double Take: JPMorgan Quietly Raising $6 Billion | www.housingwire.com

JP Morgan's capital raising is prudent because (1) the Bear Stearns acquisition will be dilutive to JP Morgan's capital position, and (2) the current turmoil in the credit markets is far from over.

A Plea For A Principles Based Rather Than A Rules Based Approach

March 17, 2008

Analysis of:U.S. to Revamp Credit Rules, Drawing From Crisis Lessons | online.wsj.com

There is always much to be learnt from a crisis, and even when the right lessons are learnt, there is real danger that the actions taken will be misguided. This appears to be the case with the recommendations of the President’s Working Group on Financial Markets. By being prescriptive and detailed they miss some parts of the bigger picture. Our experience teaches us that a principles-based approach can overcome that limitation and is more enduring.  

Do We Really Need Bond Insurers?

March 7, 2008

Analysis of:Ambac Drops Breakup, Plans To Raise $1.5B | www.propertyandcasualtyinsurancenews.com

If a major bond insurer was to lose its triple-A rating the likely outcome is a redistribution of losses rather than incremental losses. In the longer run the impact could even be positive.

An Ill Conceived Idea Fizzles Out?

December 11, 2007

Analysis of:Big Banks Scale Back Plan to Aid in Debt Crisis | www.nytimes.com

The logic behind the super-SIV has been fatally flawed from the start because a cornerstone of the proposed solution relies on the original cause of the problem, the lack of transparency, and therefore could be more harmful than helpful.

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