Contributing Member of the Financial & Business Services Councils

GLG News by this Author

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

AmEx is Unlikely to Succeed

March 31, 2011

Analysis of:AmEx Pushing World Expansion Takes on EBay's PayPal With Prepaid E-Wallet | www.bloomberg.com

If Amex mismanages this project as it mismanages its credit card business, then it will fail. Amex is not an innovative company, but a laggard.Yes, mobile payments will become more and more predominant, but a prepaid e-wallet was tried by Mondex and failed. Any existing smart-card is in effect a prepaid e-wallet. And e-wallet capabilities will be built into mobile devices such as i-Pods and regular cellphones, as they are already in Asia.

The Market is *already in* the Next Leg Down

January 31, 2010

Analysis of:What Happens to the Market in the Next Leg Down? | seekingalpha.com

The market correction has been underway for weeks and it is considerably over-valued.

China Commodity Stockpile

August 7, 2009

Analysis of:China reliance a risk for commodities | uk.reuters.com

Commodity prices are already too high and there will not be a surge in prices as the economy recovers. 

No "Great Depression" on Horizon

June 11, 2008

Analysis of:Central bank body warns of Great Depression | www.bankingtimes.co.uk

This is ridiculous speculation, with zero understanding of the long-wave economic cycle ... and also complete ignorance of the Chinese economy. How BIS can suggest this is beyond belief. We are in a severe recession (end of a 9.5 year cycle) , mainly caused by the absurd property bubble in the USA, rampant speculation in oil and other commodities, and an inflationary aftermath of Mid-East wars on the US economy. The economic boom will continue, driven by China and the Webolution (Internet Revolution) of socio-economic and business affairs worldwide. Plan strategic investments which take advantage of the next 9.5-year up-wave of the boom, that will last until about 2019. At that point, the long-wave economic cycle will mature and growth will slow until a cycle bottom is reached, around 2048. That will signal the next equivalent of a "Great Depression." But there will not again be a true "Great Depression" in developed economies.

S&L Debacle Redux

April 4, 2008

Analysis of:Wall St banks seek to ring-fence bad assets | www.ft.com

The major banks are basically in the same situation as was the Savings & Loan industry several years ago, after its lax practices (remember that?). Trying to sweep bad debt off their balance sheets is a naive response to their negligent lending practices. The industry might be able to pool its garbage loans (many of which have yet to be accounted for as the economy continues to deteriorate). But in the end they will have to be written down to less than 10-cents on the dollar. Then what?

Consumer Cash Squeeze to Worsen

April 4, 2008

Analysis of:Overdue Consumer Debts Highest Since 1992, ABA Says | www.bloomberg.com

Consumers are maxed out on debt, with delinquency rates rising. The situation will worsen as unemployment rises. Discretionary spending will be heavily curtailed. Banks and credit card lenders will experience massive write downs, way beyond what is now contemplated. The recent Visa capitalization will appear ridiculous and its shares will plunge.

Housing Meltdown Far from Over

December 17, 2007

Analysis of:Countrywide doubles foreclosures | www.ft.com

This particular article is of minor importance, other then the fact that it talks about Countrywide specifically. The important point about this issue, is that Countrywide is the tip of an iceberg, not the iceberg itself. The housing industry meltdown is far from over and merely represents huge excesses piled on top of a regular 19-year construction industry cycle which is coming to a close.

Economic Recession in 2008-2010 timeframe

November 27, 2007

Analysis of:1-in-3 chance of global 'recession' | www.news.com.au

Major slowdown in some countries. Could cause a major contagion in major trading partners of USA in particular, where recession will hit hardest. Everyone should have plans in place to weather a recession, and take advantage of opportunities, both before, during, and after.

China Quality Control Problems are of Little Consequence

July 6, 2007

Analysis of:China Finds Poor Quality on Its Store Shelves | www.nytimes.com

Let's not blow this out of proportion. 80% of products for domestic consumption in China are considered safe by China. They said 90% of products going to the United States are safe. That cuts the stated problem in half right there. So we are dealing with 10% of products, only a fraction of which are for human consumption. Let's recall that Japan was once equated with junk products. It now dominates the auto market, after being laughed at.

Wal-Mart to have Negligible Impact on Financial Services Sector

June 25, 2007

Analysis of:At Wal-Mart, a Back Door Into Banking | www.nytimes.com

Wal-Mart's main groups of clients are lower income households, many of whom do not have banking services anyway. Hence, it will not take business away from other financial service providers. To the extent that mid-income or higher-income Wal-Mart customers might start using Wal-Mart financial services, they will only do so if there is a distinct advantage for them to switch. Wal-Mart's offering these services may give them a foot in the door to the financial services sector, but it will have negligible impact on the industry. The fact that Wal-Mart is doing this is a red herring. Wal-Mart may be the largest retailer, but its big box model is the end of the line for brick-and-mortar retailing. The future of retailing is over the Internet. In sum, this entire topic is a non-issue and of little or no consequence.

 

TD is Aggressive Innovator

June 11, 2007

Analysis of:TD Ameritrade Merger | www.schaeffersresearch.com

This article obviously is purely speculative. However, if Ameritrade is acquired by TD then it will greatly increase competition in the sector because TD is an innovative financial services company. It has been the leading innovator in Canadian financial services since the 1960s, and has never lost that lead role.

Sandisk Will Overcome This Issue

June 11, 2007

Analysis of:Sandisk's ITC Determination | ce.seekingalpha.com

Such analysis is pathetically weak and ill informed. It is absolute rubbish to say that Sandisk will slump because of this. Sandisk is an innovative company that has far more eggs in its basket than this.

Page : 11 to 12 of 12