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Excess money is on the sidelines for commercial real estate

November 20, 2009

Analysis of:A sector too tough to save | online.wsj.com

Gamblers might loose if they bet on a major CRE crash.1.) The estimated total value of CRE in the US is $6TR. Total debt is $3.5TR. That LTV of less than 60% is not overleveraged, as was residential.2.) Loan modifications are now favored by recent IRS and Fed rules changes.3.) REITS are sitting on $BB of cash to buy up everything at a 6% to 8% return, and are buying everything that comes up.4.) Hedge funds will continue to promote the "CRE crash is coming" scenario, but it won't happen.

Vegas Market Is On The Cusp of a Rebound

September 25, 2007

Analysis of:Local home sales stay down | www.lvrj.com

Las Vegas' residential sale market peaked in 2004, a full year ahead of other regional and national markets. By 2007, the Las Vegas residential resale market has stabilized at about 23,000 sales per year, which is "normal" for the size of the market. More indicative of stability is the "days on market" for resales: residential resales sell, on average, in 58 days on the market. There are many listings that do not sell, but they are overpriced, and are mostly owned by investors who are still wishing on a star. Homebuilders have been closing more new home sales per month than the number of new permits since April 2007. Thus, the inventory of "spec" homes is being reduced every month. Las Vegas's home sale market is unlike anywhere else, for 3 reasons: 1) Nevada's favorable tax law makes it attractive to own a 2nd or 3rd home to serve as a corporate HQ, 2) The climate and entertainment make Vegas an ideal 2nd home location 3)Vegas is highly secure (especially in a high rise.)

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