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Sovereign and financial crises: Europe and the U.S.

January 18, 2012

This is not the first time that sovereign and financial crises have occurred concurrently. There are, however, important differences between Europe and the U.S.. In the U.S., the financial crisis was the primary source of the crisis and extra government spending tamed it by supporting imperilled banks. In  Europe, banks absorbed government debt. What if the likely recession increases that debt burden?  As the S&P downgrading explicitely stated, fiscal discipline will not be enough.

Immigration Effects on Italy's Policy

June 2, 2010

Conservatism dominates Italy's policy because competition induced by immigration flows applies more to labor than to output market. Local workers fear to be displaced by foreign workers while local producers become less and less competitive and eventually lose their export shares.

A Weak President in a Weaker Europe

September 17, 2009

Analysis of:Berlusconi threatens to block EU over migrant row. | www.euractiv.com

Berlusconi's menace to block EU was rude and naive but was also supporting Barroso role when his election was uncertain. Recessions divide countries and there is a risk that Barroso is not strong enough to support a unified market policy.

Title: A World Currency Should not Reflect Oil Prices by: Riccardo Fiorito, University of Siena

April 2, 2009

Analysis of:U.N. panel says world should ditch dollar | www.reuters.com

A UN panel recently suggested that a basket of currencies should replace the dollar as the world reserve currency. This proposal is not new and shows up again because of i) changing composition of the world trade and ii) large imbalances between China and the US. Yet, another reason is also important in my view: oil prices account for actual or predicted dollar depreciations. This evidence dates back since the first 1973 oil shock which was basically originated by the OPEC reaction to the US dollar fall. Once current recession will be happily won, there is a risk of  rising oil and commodity prices if the US monetary policy will continue to promp dollar devaluation. While Europe does not make enough for winning current recession from the fiscal side, a prolonged lax monetary policy by the Fed will help US exports but will also accelerate the time for replacing the dollar with a currency basket. This is not a premature concern if we really believe in a better 2010.

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