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Collapse of euro not unthinkable but improbable

March 30, 2011

Analysis of:Warren Buffett says collapse of euro not unthinkable: TV | www.reuters.com

The euro has entered a decisive phase in its history, one that will likely see its governing structures changed dramatically. Warren Buffet is right to say that the survival of the currency should not be taken for granted but for both political and economic reasons, it will survive. It is a different question as to what form its governance will take, who will continue to be members and what value it retains.

Italy Risks Isolation in EU

September 17, 2009

Analysis of:Berlusconi threatens to block EU over migrant row. | www.euractiv.com

The report that Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi threatened to block EU business if Commission officials did not stop commenting on his government was the latest in a series of clashes between the current Italian government and EU institutions. While the threats were mostly bluster, the underlying point is that Italy is risking isolation within the EU. More importantly, this government does not seem concerned about distancing itself from its European partners.

More than a bilateral problem.

January 9, 2009

Analysis of:EU presidency says gas dispute "bilateral problem | www.reuters.com

Clearly, given events of the last week, this is more than a bilateral issue as the EU and the Czech presidency have become directly involved. The issue has highlighted some of the challenges the EU and many of its member states face with respect to energy security.

The clock is ticking on Alitalia

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Air France-KLM withdraws Alitalia bid | www.ft.com

The withdrawal of AirFrance-KLM from negotiations on the sale of Alitalia means that the airline is living on borrowed time. The government has extended a €300 million emergency loan to keep the company afloat for a few more months. The question of what happens to one of the few flagship airlines remaining is Europe is sure to be one that will occupy the incoming government in its first few months. The AF-KLM withdrawal means that there is a renewed hope in an Italian-led consortium of investors to take over the company, which could also re-open the question of the future of Malpensa airport. 

Boardroom battles at Telecom Italia

April 9, 2007

Analysis of:Italy Won’t Block Spanish Bid for a Stake in Telecom Italia | www.nytimes.com

 
1) Telecom Italia is now being sought by American/Mexican bod that could have implications not only for European but also Latin American markets.

2) Telecom Italia could be a good indicator of the extent to which the Italian centre-left government is serious about reversing Italy's poor record on attracting FDI.

3) Could be an indicator of how Italian government will handle other ownership questions such as Alitalia.

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