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The Outcome of Syria's 2011 Revolt will be Different than that of 1982.

August 15, 2011

With Syrians demonstrating peacefully to gain freedom and democracy, the brutality meted out by their government to crush the revolt raised concerns of violence, similar to that of Hama in 1982.Today's technologies of Internet, Cable TV, cellphones and social networks exposed the systematic killings taking place and led to pressures from neighbors, regional, and world powers to address people's demands. The prospects for a peaceful outcome are slim.Two implications are highlighted for investors.

Will Saudi Arabia Escape the Transformation in the Middle East?

August 8, 2011

The short answer is NO and the more relevant questions are when will the transformation occur? and what will it lead to?On the surface the Kingdom appears stable with wealth, power, a loyal population, and support by the world sole superpower. Just below the surface, the kingdom shows considerable apprehension manifested by a proposed draconian counterterrorism law. This results from a hostile and radically changing neighborhood that the Kingdom's rulers are ill prepared to deal with.

So What is Exactly Happening in Egypt?

July 17, 2011

The situation with Egypt's revolution lacks transparency due to weakness by the Army leadership (SCAF).The revolution supporters are impatient with SCAF for its slow prosecution of those who ordered the shooting of demonstrators during the uprising. Mubarak threatened to uncover proof that implicates SCAF's 2 most senior members in illegally profiting from US Aid grants and rich Arab nations press Egypt not to try Mubarak. A serious confrontation is building up and investors are advised caution.

The Historic Transformations in the Middle East

July 5, 2011

The analysis is an attempt to predict the outcome of ME transformations. They will be messy, violent, and will last for at least 5 years. Each country will transform uniquely depending on its economic conditions and political suppression. The goals of the uprisings are to improve economic conditions and achieve political freedoms. A number of parties are attempting to highjack and influence the revolts.The price of oil will appreciate and investments will reward investors with a risk appetite.

In Addition To The Economic Downturn Cadbury Has To Compete With A Mightier Mars!

May 13, 2009

Analysis of:Cadbury comes unstuck | www.ft.com

Cadbury might be feeling the impact of the global economic downturn especially in its larger price-sensitive regions such as Latin America and Asia. For some consumers, chewing gums are perceived to be less of a personal leisure "reward" than chocolates and therefore are easier to rationalize in harder times. The new M&M Mars, now strengthened with Wrigley's chewing gum arsenal, is also possibly impacting Cadbury's sales in the less price sensitive markets of Europe and North America through its trade negotiating strength.

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