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Texas Champ of Case/Shiller, if not BCS Poll

January 25, 2010

Analysis of:October Home Prices in 20 U.S. Metro Areas Fall 18% | www.bloomberg.com

Texas - The Case/Shiller index, like the BCS poll, is flawed from it's precept in that it uses an incomplete data sample to derive it's conclusions. The method is akin to eating soup with a fork. With C/S, the "problem" properties that get sold again and again are overstated. The house that backs to the train track is easy to sell in a "hot" market, try selling it when no one can qualify for financing. The house in the flight path of the airport is "urban hip" when the market bubble is expanding, it's noisy and loud when there are more homes than buyers. The point is that the very best homes don't sell that often. They are bought, held, improved, bequeathed... you get the picture. These homes never make it into the revered index. While there might be no better method for looking at valuation of the housing market nationwide, it just one more reminder that in real estate, location location location can often be just as, if not more important than any macro economic condition.

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