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Navigant Economics, AT&T, Rural Broadband, And Phlogiston

July 26, 2011

In telecommunications Navigant Economics as well as other economists in academia and the consulting profession seem increasingly prepared to support arguments in favor of their clients' desires and goals regardless of whether they are reasonable or preposterous. Unfortunately this behavior tends to blur the distinction between (a) respectable advocacy with findings based on evidence and rational arguments and (b) indefensible nonsense, discrediting both academics and consultants.

Verizon and AT&T: Preparations For A Duopoly

July 21, 2011

Analysis of:verizon's mcadam: at | www.fiercewireless.com

AT&T argues that its merger with T-Mobile poses no risk of " coordinated interactions", ignoring the huge overlap between its preferred policies, behavior and positions with Verizon. There is no need for formal coordination for these two largest operators, in a context of gathering momentum towards a duopoly, to act in concert, drowning out dissenting opinions and frustrating competitive initiatives that displease them.

AT&T's "Deliberate Misrepresentations" About Its Merger With T-Mobile

July 20, 2011

One of the most outrageous among the many unsupported and unsupportable claims made by AT&T to justify its proposed merger with T-Mobile, is that  broadband coverage and capacity will be expanded post-merger, notably in rural areas. Unfortunately this myth has been accepted by multiple local elected officials and small business associations in expressing support for the merger, in the mistaken belief that it will uniquely benefit respectively their constituents and members.

Anti-Consumer, Anti-Innovation Legislation But It Pleases AT&T And Verizon

July 20, 2011

Analysis of:Congress goes after unlicensed wireless "free riders" (like Google and Microsoft) | arstechnica.com

This draft bill if implemented will further weaken the already fragile and underfunded ability of regulators to restrain powerful telecommunications and media organizations from acting however they want regardless of any other interests. They will be free from any countervailing pressure except that of "market forces" (accompanied no doubt by professions of "good behavior"), which even Alan Greenspan has belatedly recognized have their limits.

Why Approval of the AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Would Harm The US Economy

July 18, 2011

Approval of the AT&T/T-Mobile merger would lead inevitably to the establishment of unrestrained and unrestrainable gatekeepers and bottlenecks to innovation. Ironically some of its most vocal supporters have been the beneficiaries of the innovation-friendly, Internet-driven environment that would never have emerged without the divestiture of AT&T in the 1980s and the commercial exploitation of technology whose origins lie in R&D funded by Government agencies in the US and Europe.

Netflix And Broadband Pricing

July 17, 2011

Analysis of:Netflix's pricing backlash: Follow the money, churn rates | www.zdnet.com

Netflix's new pricing structure may have been driven by the costs of its content, but the other shoe that has to drop is the cost of online delivery. The double whammy of data caps on customers and of efforts by broadband access operators to make content owners pay them directly has yet to be felt.

Nokia - When It Rains It Pours

July 16, 2011

Recent news for Nokia seems universally depressing from the substantial decline in its handset business to the problematic future of its mobile network equipment joint venture Nokia Siemens Networks. No signs of rebirth or recovery are yet visible.

Opposition to AT&T/T-Mobile - Sprint's Shareholders Should Be Very Worried

July 12, 2011

The feebleness of Sprint's opposition to the AT&T/T-Mobile transaction is remarkable given that it is the largest organization that would suffer most directly and broadly from its damaging consequences. Other organizations have produced much more comprehensive  and convincing arguments and evidence against this merger with far fewer resources.

AT&T And "Informed And Unbiased" Academics

July 12, 2011

Analysis of:Assessing | papers.ssrn.com

This Report "ASSESSING COMPETITION IN U.S. WIRELESS MARKETS:REVIEW OF THE FCC'S COMPETITION REPORTS" is partly funded (other sources have not been disclosed) by AT&T. It is written by academics and the Managing Director of  Navigant. Unsurprisingly it concludes, unlike the FCC which does not take a position, that the wireless market in the US is fiercely competitive, which is one of AT&T's claims to justify its acquisition of T-Mobile.

Microsoft and AT&T - Birds Of A Feather

July 9, 2011

Analysis of:Microsoft Argues that Third-Party Peripherals are Illegal | www.publicknowledge.org

Microsoft's behavior is remarkably similar to AT&T's with respect to control over customers' terminals and attitudes towards third party innovators. No wonder Microsoft has come out in support of AT&T's takeover of T-Mobile USA.

Google: The Reprehensible Dog That Doesn't Bark Against AT&T

July 8, 2011

Google's silence in the face of the AT&T/T-Mobile USA transaction is a fundamental strategic mistake on its part. While it may feel that the regulatory scrutiny it is subject to makes speaking out too risky, the consequences for its future business if this deal is approved would be even more damaging. Its silence reveals that it lacks the courage of its convictions or is not yet ready to play a role commensurate with its size and success.

AT&T And Verizon: Isolationism In International Mobile Broadband Data Roaming

July 6, 2011

A possibly unintended but nevertheless significant consequence of the combination of an AT&T/T-Mobile merger with the fragmentation of the 700 MHz band in the US for LTE could be the creation of undesirable obstacles to the accessibility of international mobile broadband data roaming services for travelers to and from the U.S. This outcome provides another reason for rejection of this merger as well as grounds for intervention by foreign stakeholders.

Why Is Verizon Introducing Data Caps Now?

July 6, 2011

Analysis of:Deciphering Verizon's smartphone data caps - USATODAY.com | www.usatoday.com

Verizon's announcement of mobile data caps may indicate it has advance information on further declines in T-Mobile's business in Q2 and possibly even of declines in AT&T's. This anticipated move also shows both how Verizon is continuing to be able to exploit AT&T's failure to invest enough its network and how "coordinated interactions" between these two market leaders can work.

AT&T/T-Mobile Merger: Less Investment, Fewer Jobs, And Reduced Innovation

July 6, 2011

The financial consequences of the AT&T/T-Mobile transaction and AT&T's proven financial priorities will lead to exactly the opposite outcomes from the benefits AT&T claims it will generate. AT&T's well financed public relations and lobbying campaign is designed to obscure the lack of evidence to support its claims and divert attention from evidence that eviscerates them.

How Could The AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Affect The Value Of Zynga's IPO?

July 5, 2011

Analysis of:Zynga files for IPO, says its future is mobile » telecoms.com – telecoms industry news, analysis and opinion | www.telecoms.com

The future and fruits of Zynga's mobile strategy for its revenues and profits will be affected by the outcome of the AT&T/T-Mobile USA transaction. This factor should be taken into account in setting the pricing of its forthcoming IPO.

"Enforceable Conditions" For The AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Is An Oxymoron

July 1, 2011

Multiple submissions to the FCC on the matter of the AT&T/T-Mobile transaction have argued that it should only be approved if certain conditions are attached. But in reality no condition attached to this acquisition by AT&T, however strong it may look on paper, will be enforceable in the real world. The merger must either be approved or rejected, there is no middle ground.

If Google Thinks Like This, Google Is Very Naive

June 27, 2011

Analysis of:Why Google Has Been Silent on ATandT-T-Mobile Merger | www.eweek.com

Google may have several reasons not to weigh in on the AT&T/T-Mobile transaction including one not mentioned in this article. But it is being extremely naive if it thinks that the merger of AT&T and T-Mobile USA would not deal a severe strategic blow to its future business prospects.

Weaknesses In The Opposition To The AT&T/T-Mobile Transaction

June 23, 2011

The weaknesses in the opposition to the AT&T/T-Mobile USA deal may be even more helpful to AT&T’s cause than the advocacy from its supporters. Two obvious vulnerabilities are the lack of credibility of Sprint Nextel, its major opponent, and the absence of Google from the fray.

AT&T: Fool Me Once Shame On You, Fool Me Twice Shame On Me

June 23, 2011

Analysis of:AT | mobile.eweek.com

It has been remarked that AT&T's proposed acquisition of T-Mobile USA will probably be approved eventually because "the fix is in." This article describes one significant element of this fix.

MetroPCS Should Take Over from Sprint Nextel As A Tier 1 Carrier, Not T-Mobile

June 20, 2011

Analysis of:Could MetroPCS take over T-Mobile's slot in the Tier I carrier ranks? | connectedplanetonline.com

MetroPCS's filing against the proposed merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA was flawed. It needs to develop a longer term vision about the role it could play in mobile broadband whether or not this deal is approved.

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