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FCC's Discovery Requests To AT&T and Deutsche Telekom

May 31, 2011

Analysis of:fcc demands explanation from at | www.telegeography.com

The FCC has sent Discovery Requests to AT&T and Deutsche Telekom to submit documents and other evidence to support their assertions about the needs and benefits that justify the former's acquisition of T-Mobile USA. The voluminous nature and content of these requests may indicate a degree of skepticism within the FCC about the validity of these assertions that does not bode well for the approval of this transaction.

Mobile Network Architectures: Size Matters – And Small Is Exciting

May 16, 2011

The advent of small cell architectures for mobile networks will be driven by the demand for more capacity that cannot be met simply by deploying more equipment operating at additional frequencies in existing macrocell networks. Small cells are critical for enabling the substantial offload of mobile data traffic onto broadband fixed facilities as close as possible to its point of origin and destination, to avoid congestion in radio access networks (RAN).

Deutsche Telekom To AT&T - Heads I Win, Tails You Lose

May 13, 2011

Analysis of:UPDATED: Collapse of T-Mobile deal would cost AT | www.fiercewireless.com

The historically high break up fee AT&T would have to pay to Deutsche Telekom (DT) if its transaction to acquire T-Mobile USA is rejected seems to set up a can't lose situation for the Germans, with a high risk for AT&T.

AT&T and T-Mobile: A Uniquely Rapid Rush To Judgement

May 9, 2011

Analysis of:DA-11-799A1.pdf (application/pdf Object) | www.fcc.gov

The timetable of the FCC's pleading cycle for this transaction is extraordinarily compressed given its sweeping and far reaching implications. There are two possible interpretations of this schedule that have contradictory implications for the chances for its approval.

AT&T: The Gang That Can't Shoot Straight

April 27, 2011

Analysis of:AT | www.dslreports.com

Despite or perhaps because of the armies of lobbyists, lawyers, and economists it is hiring AT&T cannot seem to deliver a coherent set of messages to justify its proposed acquisition of T-Mobile. Unless money alone will be sufficient, regardless of the quality and credibility of the information and arguments that are presented, AT&T will have to do a lot better to win approval of this deal in Washington.

A Tale Of Two Studies And AT&T's Claim Of Spectrum-Related Capacity Constraints

April 26, 2011

Two just released studies from the NAB and 4G Americas about the need for more spectrum for wireless broadband present very different conclusions based on the same technological considerations. Since the sponsors of these studies represent competing interests in this arena, the need for a truly objective assessment is evident.

AT&T and America Movil (AM) - Will The Dots Be Connected?

April 18, 2011

Analysis of:ALFA to Acquire AT&T Equity | www.att.com

AT&T is selling its investment in Mexican telecommunications. The effective liberalization of this market has long been frustrated by the tactics and political influence of AM, which is now facing a $1 billion fine from Cofeco. Coincidentally AM's MVNO subsidiary in the US Tracfone now has over 17 million subscribers, a substantial proportion of which are on AT&T's network, whose relationships with MVNOs will come up in the review of its deal with T-Mobile.

RUS Broadband Study from the NCTA - Misleading Omissions

April 15, 2011

Analysis of:Evaluating the Cost-Effectiveness of RUS Broadban... - NCTA.com | www.ncta.com

The Navigant Study on the Cost Effectiveness of RUS Broadband Subsidies is flawed and misleading. Its definition of broadband is sadly unambitious and outdated. It ignores fundamental differences in the relative capabilities and roles of mobile broadband as compared to fixed access networks.

Sprint, Clearwire, LightSquared - Do Two Negatives And An Unknown Make A Plus?

April 9, 2011

Analysis of:Sprint to Sign Network Sharing Deals with LightSquared, Clearwire: Analyst - International Business Times | www.ibtimes.com

Network sharing is a grand and potentially valuable idea. But like a marriage it takes a lot of hard work and good will to make it work. The omens for this rumored deal are not propitious.

Vodafone Is More Important Than AT&T

April 4, 2011

Analysis of:RPT-UPDATE 1-Vodafone tidies up with $11 bln SFR sale to Vivendi | Reuters | www.reuters.com

Vodafone has embarked upon a rationalization of its global  mobile holdings. The consequences of this strategy and of initiatives by other multinational operators will have a more profound effect upon the global mobile sector and telecommunications overall than the outcome of the AT&T/T-Mobile deal, especially if the latter is not as open to exploiting multiple US-based sources of innovation as some foreign operators.

The LightSquared Lobbying And Marketing Machine - Caveat Emptor

March 25, 2011

The LightSquared venture is still a bad idea even if sustained by a worthy principle, despite recent announcements about its partnerships and the FCC’s waiver of limits on the so-called ancillary terrestrial component (ATC) for mobile satellite services.

Where There's No Will There's A Way - AT&T And T-Mobile

March 24, 2011

Analysis of:T-Mobile Deal Faces Antitrust Barriers . | online.wsj.com

The Democratic Administration may unexpectedly develop a determination not to accede trustingly to the requests of large corporations. Absent this unlikely event the proposed acquisition of T-Mobile by AT&T will probably be approved. The conditions for its approval will include minor concessions regarding divestment of some assets, accompanied by promises of fair and constructive behavior with respect to competitors, customers, including  broadband-poor Americans, and entrepreneurial innovators.

AT&T and T-Mobile - Multiple Consequences and Devilish Details

March 21, 2011

Analysis of:T-Mobile USA Sold to AT | www.cellular-news.com

On paper this acquisition makes much more sense than a Sprint-T-Mobile deal. It has consequences for European players as well as the US.

Whistling In The WIND (Canada)

March 18, 2011

Analysis of:WIND Mobile | New Telecom Merger – What It Means for WIND Mobile Customers | www.windmobile.ca

The claim that VimpelCom acquisition's of WIND Telecom, whose assets include Orascom Telecom, a significant shareholder in WIND Canada, is great news for the latter is not credible. Canada will be close to if not at the bottom of the likely and sensible investment priorities of this group which will start life with a very large debt.

Clearwire - Unclear And Down To The Wire

March 17, 2011

The failure of Clearwire as a business  is evident and inevitable. The question is what will happen to its valuable spectrum assets

Nokia and Microsoft: A Marriage Born From and Destined For Failure

February 11, 2011

Analysis of:Nokia and Microsoft form partnership | www.bbc.co.uk

The closer partnership between Nokia and Microsoft in the mobile sector is unlikely to prove fruitful for either of them.

Is Nokia Missing The Point?

February 9, 2011

Analysis of:Report: Nokia CEO planning high-level reshuffle | www.mobilebusinessbriefing.com

Speculation about which mobile operating system(s) Nokia may adopt instead of Symbian misses the principal challenges this company is actually facing to establish a strong foundation for its future in the world of mobile broadband and applications and services. Its decline will be inexorable unless it changes its apparent direction.

New Mobile Entrants In Canada: An Uphill Struggle Against Inconsistent Policies

February 4, 2011

Stated policy in Canada is to allow new mobile entrants into the market to address concerns about alleged relatively high prices, low penetration and inadequate competition compared to the US. But not only do Canada's demographics and geography make it hard for new entrants to build a viable business, but inconsistent policies, some of which favor powerful incumbents, put further obstacles in their path.

Al-Jazeera And Net Neutrality

February 1, 2011

The respective and very different qualities of coverage of ongoing events in Egypt by al-Jazeera and other news media from Fox News, PBS, and BBC World News to ABC, CBS and NBC raises the obvious question as to why - and with what consequences - the first of these channels of news and reporting is only available to the vast majority of US residents via an online connection.

Taking The Sales Out Of the WIND - Telenor, Vimpelcom, and Orascom

January 31, 2011

Analysis of:Telenor Starts Arbitration Against VimpelCom, Altimo | online.wsj.com

The ongoing saga of the 3-way dispute between the Norwegian incumbent Telenor, the Russian Alfa Group, and Wind Telecom continues. It will have an impact among other consequences upon the ability of Wind Canada to invest further in its new AWS network or other opportunities in that country.

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