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models versus pictures

October 8, 2009

Analysis of:Google urges Web adoption of vector graphics | news.cnet.com

The important difference is the nature of the information that is sent. Sending a model can allow more uses for the visual information than a bunch of pixels but when the model is described as an ASCII XML file it can be large and require effort to process.

the larger issue of graphics versus information

October 2, 2008

Analysis of:Metadata Working Group Introduces First Specification for Interoperability and Preservation of Metadata in Digital Photography | www.examiner.com

This metadata is nothing special and really no different from the "metadata" in any other data structure that has some complex target information along with various parameters. What is interesting is the interface between graphics and information ( text) that usually comes up in things like the MSFT/ linux debate. Standards can create various competitive benefits for some companies at the expense of others but this PR may be more suitable for general observations about data usage than specific company impact. The larger issue is getting data providers to recognize that the enabling information is often in the text("metadata") not a bunch of pixels ( image/graphics).

Some Thoughts on Immune Manipulation

September 1, 2008

Analysis of:Cell Genesys Ends Clinical Trials For Prostate Cancer Treatment | online.wsj.com

I would be hoping for an analysis to determine if the results are just a fluke or if in fact their "drug" in combination with Taxotere for this population is actually killing people.

Virulent oil and round-up ready kudzu.

March 31, 2008

Analysis of:Weed 'Yields' Rising Along With Corn Yields | americanagriculturist.com

I try to read only primary sources but some industry newletters or trade journals summarize anecdotes or observations from  populations within an industry. In this case, I thought this article had some credibility and may be worth reading for ideas on future ag developments. At least once questionable comment was easy to check and a second could be examined with less clarity.  These point to the impact of climatic conditions on more general changes in plant metabolism than may be commonly appreciated.

P-II prior efficacy hints may help

March 24, 2008

Analysis of:UPDATE: Arena Pharma: Diet Drug Shows No Heart Valve Damage | money.cnn.com

Since no one else has made a public response, let me offer some links and thoughts for discussion. It turns out there are efficacy hints from an earlier Phase II study as well a recent animal publication that outlines the other issues. While I am not familiar with the target application for this drug,  I recently did a literature review related to valvulopathies.  5HT-2B, the receptor that they try to avoid, does seem to be a good suspect for valve damage, possibly in concert with SERT or other transporters. It isn't clear from the PR alone exactly what floor they think they have set for the frequency of valve damage. I'd still be curious about drug interactions and idiosyncratic metabolites that could interact strongly with alternative pieces of the 5HT system including 5HT2B or SERT. And, of course, don't loose perspective for other side effects that measured along with weight loss or those unintended ones that are of concern for all drugs.

very ambiguous report, read the actual scientific paper

March 13, 2008

Analysis of:For the First Time, An RNAI Drug Works in People | blogs.wsj.com

I haven't been following siRNA closely but let me offer some specific areas of concern and some perspective that may help you find higher-confidence  conclusions. One concern with RNA approaches has been specificity. Cells can respond to unusual RNA with a non-specific interferon response under the assumption that this RNA reflects a viral infection. In this case, it wouldn't be possible to demonstrate a specific drug effect without an "inert" RNA placebo. And, you would have to question study parameters ( size for example) too but that is not an issue specific to this technology.  Also, I'm not sure "cure" would apply to chronic conditions.

one comment from their 10k,

March 11, 2008

Analysis of:Thornburg Can't Meet Margin Calls, Survival in Doubt | www.bloomberg.com

If you don't have their 10-K handy, I did find one reference to margin situation that may help ( and of course the rest of their financials are readily available). Maybe someone with insight into ARM pricing could elaborate on these comments from TMA managment.

usually the question is " will it work?"

March 10, 2008

Analysis of:GeoVax Vaccine Only 5th AIDS Vaccine Moving to Phase 2 Human Trials | www.pipelinereview.com

I don't have an answer yet but let me outline an approach that I have used in the past that may make prediction easier in the near future. The absolute number of related vaccines that have failed is not all that relevant but the theory and related science behind this product may have some predictive value. In the past, and even today, many would argue this is simply a waste of time but let's take a look and see if there is any predictive value in the literature. Unappreciated side-effects can not be entirely ignored but generally at this point efficacy is the larger issue. Obviously, you can get a better deal on an investment if you chose a position ahead of the release of compelling empirical data.

If you are starting with this PR, try the SEC filings

March 5, 2008

Analysis of:China Mobile sees roaming fees cutting into revs | www.reuters.com

I can't provide the insight of someone actually in China, but I will point out that the US SEC filings for the ADR's  can be quite helpful in sorting out these issues or at least finding more specific areas of concern. Government intervention is never really predictable but this doesn't seem to be a new issue and past management concerns, which may or may not be realistic, are often disclosed. In the past, I found that companies like Tom Online pointed to various business practices that had track records in the West and similar results in China so this approach can work.  While I am terribly out of date in the area, if you are looking at PR's for news, I will just suggest you look at these documents.

We need to get back to some basics

February 29, 2008

Analysis of:Existing Home Sales and Prices Fall in January | www.mortgagenewsdaily.com

There are a lot of popular press accounts explaining how this or that group is being impacted by housing. In order to fix any problem, we need to understand the causes and fundamental constraints that any solution must obey. Almost all industry insiders have an optimistic bias that should be checked by examination of independent data such as population information. If the mortgage obligations exceed the debt service capacity of people who want to buy the homes, someone is going to have to accept a dollar loss,possibly "taxpayers",  unless the fed wants to devalue the currency enough to make the dollar-denominated mortgage obligations servicable. I'm not sure that a lot of innovation is possible, but it may come from examining some of the components of the problem.  One other note of general caution, any comparisons to historical example need to be modified to account for important differences that exist today.

Good idea, but approach has had problems in the past

February 26, 2008

Analysis of:The call for a cure | www.indystar.com

If you are starting from popular press articles such as this, you can find a lot of additional details on pubmed. From what I can gather, this is a good idea as it is intended to correct a target specific immune problem without more general immunosuppression. However, AFAIK, this approach is not well understood and has been attempted in the past without success.

Good Step, but Still a lot of Details to Check

February 19, 2008

Analysis of:Dendreon Presents Data Correlating the Cumulative Potency of PROVENGE(R) to Overall Survival | www.pipelinereview.com

It appears they finally made an attempt to infer causality from a previous result and determine what, if any, treatment effect was implied. I'm quite happy to see this type of analysis but would want to look at all the details, including the raw data if possible, before drawing too many conclusions. This can't hurt the regulatory efforts as long as it represents a robust conclusion based on fair use of clinical and lab data, but I'm still wondering why they didn't do this earlier to support the controversial BLA.

You Would Want to Understand Already-Observed Side Effects if Nothing Else

July 9, 2007

Analysis of:Lexicon Develops Antibodies that Lower Triglycerides and Cholesterol as Potential New Therapy for Heart Disease | www.pipelinereview.com

LEXG designs drugs for targets they have helped to find so they have a situation with more unknowns than others that go after well studied targets. The literature on this target is quite limited- perhaps 50-60 papers- but it suggests a number of questionable effects. Often, effects attributed to "A Target" aren't observed under physiological conditions but it isn't clear from the literature how they expect to find a beneficial effect corridor-presumably the sponsors could provide a few more details.

DNDN- it seems there is a real misunderstanding on efficacy data.

July 6, 2007

Analysis of:FDA Delay In Cancer Therapy Is Attacked | www.washingtonpost.com

The vocal opposition to the FDA decision on Dendreon could be viewed as a group of irrelevant retail investors but it seems larger biotech buyers sometimes expect more favorable responses. The Dendreon BLA has become more of a political issue rather than scientific. However, I believe that the FDA position is quite sound  and an examination of the confusion may be helpful. In this repost, I highlight some of the reasons the FDA may be rather cautious accepting the existing efficacy data.

anything that overcomes limits of RF link or describes location is valuable.

July 5, 2007

Analysis of:TELECOM REPORT: Seeding The Future Of Communications | www.marketwatch.com

While the femto/picocell has some utility, I'd be looking at emerging technologies for inertial navigation assist for GPS as one example-location is central to mobile telecom.  Nearby communication concepts similar to bluetooth or the femtocell are also interesting areas that can integrate/converge with things like RFID. KVHI and ADI have gyro technologies in various stages of development, while uses of nearby comm have been patented by companies including EDS and companies like NVTL and SWIR service additional niches.

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