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Global forecasts updated in wake of credit crunch

November 16, 2007

Analysis of:Forecasts lose shine as credit crunch fuels doubt | www.reuters.com

This year is marked by higher than baseline levels of uncertainty, brought on by the downstream effects of the sub-prime meltdown, continuing weakness in the dollar, and the first whispers that the United States – by far the world’s largest economy, with 34% of world GDP – is in fact already in recession. Latin America continues to be relatively shielded from the global credit crunch, aided by more resilient macroeconomic policies, strong fundamentals heading into the event itself, and limited exposure to the affected institutions.

US sub-prime mortgage crisis has limited reverb on Latin markets

October 7, 2007

Analysis of:Then They All Fall Down | www.msnbc.msn.com

Fundamentals sound; strong growth projected throughout region. The recent crisis in US sub-prime mortgage instruments will have only a limited impact on Latin American financial services firms and their customers. The assets of banking and insurance related firms in Latin America are held mostly in local sovereign securities with some cross-border blue chip government, bank or corporate securities. Latin American and Caribbean governments are also insulated from the credit crunch. In recent years, sovereigns have become more resilient by deepening domestic capital markets, effectively reducing their exposure to external capital. Combined with sound fundamentals – low inflation, deep reserves, and exchange rate flexibility – this has worked to deflect volatility stemming from the recent sub-prime credit crunch.

Declining remittances, slowing growth no cause for long-term concerns - June 2007

October 7, 2007

Analysis of:Mexico remittance growth to slow in 2007 - cenbank | www.reuters.com

Remittances should continue to dip gradually through to the 4Q07, before they normalize in line with baseline expectations for US GDP overall. We are confident that there is more resilience and flexibility in Mexican consumer spending markets, particularly in the core food, beverage, and retail sectors, than formal metrics can capture.

Wal-Mart: to boldly go where no bank has gone before…?

October 7, 2007

Analysis of:Wal-Mart to Offer New Debit Card, More MoneyCenters | www.pbs.org

By leveraging its size and scale, Wal-Mart will be able to do in financial services what it does with retail items: undercut competitor pricing. The consensus is that Wal-Mart can easily afford to invest the time and money to educate the larger unbanked Latino community and can operate at a loss until the product is known and respected within the community. Big banks are well aware that the Latino community is quickly moving into the middle class within a generation of immigrating.

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