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Chrysler's Fatal Flaw - model lineup

September 3, 2009

Analysis of:Chrysler Said to Set Board Review of Models, Fiat Integration | www.bloomberg.com

Chrysler will not be able to make the tough decisions necessary to revamp their model lineup due to their "debt" to the Unions.

SERIOUS ISSUES

May 1, 2009

Analysis of:Chrysler aims for Fiat but readies bankruptcy plan | www.reuters.com

There are some serious issues that will prevent the Chrysler bankruptcy proceeding from being as quick, clean and surgical as many have stated. there are a lot of issues that haven't even been discussed - first and foremost is the dealer's rights. Franchise agreements differ from state to state and many dealers will not go "quietly into the night". This issue alone has the ability to tie the proceeding up for months and months.

That's a Spicy Meatball!

April 1, 2009

Analysis of:Chrysler Plan Trims Fiat's Stake, Cuts Out Cerberus | online.wsj.com

This partnership is doomed from the outset with Cerberus having nothing to loose and Fiat left without anything to gain - replay Renault/AMC venture.

Berkshire and Buffett have a taste for HOG

February 16, 2009

Analysis of:Buffett’s Berkshire Refuels Harley With $300 Million in Debt | www.bloomberg.com

I believe that Berkshire's interest in HOG is much greater than a $300M government subsidized deal. It is my opinion that Berkshire is looking to "pig out" on HOG possible swallowing it whole. HOG seems to fit many of the criteria that we have seen in Buffett's previous acquisitions and the price is right - think of it as a "fast,fun, shinny and loud" Dairy Queen.

Franchise Fire Sales For Real

February 16, 2009

Analysis of:G.M. To Cut 10,000 Salaried Workers | www.nytimes.com

Dealers will no longer be able to hide behind each state's franchise laws to insulate themselves from the factory's desire to consolidate. Forced sales and closures are coming and dealers need to get out while they can.

Nothing New

September 15, 2008

Analysis of:Sales Slump In Luxury Car Segment And Auto Makers Offer Deals | online.wsj.com

Subvented financing, subsidized residual values and factory-to-dealer money is nothing new in the Import Highline Group Market. These factors coupled with an overall slowing of the economy is one reason why the captive lease portfolios of BMW, Acura, Mercedes, Audi, Infinity, Volvo, Saab and Jaguar should be examined very carefully with respect to actual cash value versus balance sheet value. Residual Insurance does not seem to be adequate to insulate these captives from potentially huge losses. Interestingly, Lexus seems relatively unaffected as they lease a lower percentage of their overall sales. Luxury SUV values, as expected, have been hit hard and have not rebounded - especially BMW, Audi and Mercedes.

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