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What influences market valuation - economic data, psychology or both
October 23, 2008
Market Valuation & Psychology | maxkapital.blogspot.com
The post looks on the market as a forward looking economic indicator with valuations impacted by both future economic expectations and psychology of people.
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Derivative Market Risk - Bad But Not End Of World Scenario
October 23, 2008
The $1,300 Trillion Derivative Market | maxkapital.blogspot.com
This post looks at the size of the derivative market and seeks to understand the economic exposure to the financial system from risks embedded in this market.
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Buy Now or Wait for Lows to be Tested
October 17, 2008
Why is Now Important | maxkapital.blogspot.com
The article looks at the potential hazards of market timing.
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October 17, 2008
Is the Energy Bull Dead? | maxkapital.blogspot.com
The article looks at the prices of oil in light of the recent collapse from $147 to under $70.
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India DJ BRIC, Titans & Others
October 14, 2008
DJ India BRIC Picks & More | maxkapital.blogspot.com
During a major bear market, people tend to lose vision of the big picture and focus on todays reality which is extrapolated in perpetuity. This creates value buying opportunities. Buying value can be painful, as the period of irrational pessimism can almost never be predicted.
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Furture Long Term Market Direction
October 13, 2008
Long Term Return to Long Term Normalcy | maxkapital.blogspot.com
As the Dow dropped below 8750, valuations reflect the average 15 Year Normalized PE's that have been in existence between 1935 to 2005. This article looks at whether we might trade at a discount to the average 15 Year Normalized PE's for the next several years. The average 15 Year Normalized PE reflects an investor return of 6% per annum in addition to returns from dividends.
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Capital Markets - Is Turbulence an Opportunity
October 7, 2008
Investing in Turbulent Times | maxkapital.blogspot.com
I view the present turmoil as a multi decade investment opportunity.
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The Return of the Monkeys Uncle
October 3, 2008
ABA Levels New Blast at Fair Value | www.cfo.com
Mark to market rules make no sense when the market values are established within a market in dis order.
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October 3, 2008
Politicians rail against fair value accounting | www.ft.com
What is wrong with the mark to market rule?
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October 1, 2008
Magical Pairs | maxkapital.wordpress.com
This article looks at identifying when basic materials as a sector might outperform.
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September 30, 2008
Whats Changed | maxkapital.wordpress.com
The article looks at how the failure of the passage of the bailout bill might impact the entry of the economy into the late stage of the economic cycle.
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September 30, 2008
Are We Ready to Rally? | maxkapital.blogspot.com
The article seeks to identify the phase of the economic cycle we are in today by looking at a range of key economic indicators. We are close to a rally followed by a protracted recovery period before the next expansion starts. It then seeks to identify cyclical themes which will determine sectors which will lead and lag in the next economic cycle. The significant risk to whether we will see an entry into the late contraction stage of the economic cycle remains the $700 billion package. Today, 29 September has been a remarkable day. Asian & European markets are down significantly. This could be a simple case of global capitulation, which is an excellent contrarian indicator.
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September 29, 2008
A Magic Multiplier | maxkapital.wordpress.com
Given a GDP of $13.7 trillion at end of 2007, we have to wonder whether $700 billion is enough; it is 4.6X the "Economic Stimulus Act of 2008" injection.
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September 24, 2008
An Admirable Response to the Crisis | maxkapital.wordpress.com
The article looks at the government response to the crisis as it unfolds.
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September 23, 2008
The Death of the $ | maxkapital.wordpress.com
A penny for your thoughts is an age old saying. We wonder whether it should soon cost a $.
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A Bullish View for Basic Materials
September 23, 2008
India Sectors; & a Secular Trend for the Globe | maxkapital.wordpress.com
This article examines powerful secular trends are evolving and how they might impact the global capital markets.
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A Life Beyond Proven, Probable & Possible Reserves
September 22, 2008
Peak Oil - Are We There Yet? | seekingalpha.com
The problem with predicting peak oil is that proven, probable & possible reserves are used as a basis for the estimation. The swing factor which can defer peak oil for many, many years is the unknown.
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Dress Up Gentlemen - No Naked Shorts
September 22, 2008
SEC Halts Short Selling of Financial Stocks to Protect Investors and Markets | www.sec.gov
The potential impact is a sharp rally. Is it good or bad? The SEC says it all: "Under normal market conditions, short selling contributes to price efficiency and adds liquidity to the markets. At present, it appears that unbridled short selling is contributing to the recent, sudden price declines in the securities of financial institutions unrelated to true price valuation. Financial institutions are particularly vulnerable to this crisis of confidence and panic selling because they depend on the confidence of their trading counterparties in the conduct of their core business." And I agree whole heartedly.
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Are Financials & IT ready to out-perform
September 22, 2008
Secular & Cyclical Positioning | maxkapital.wordpress.com
What are the cyclical opportunities for out-performance? When will the out-performance from secular growth sectors re-commence?
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September 22, 2008
The Next Secular Bull | maxkapital.wordpress.com
This article looks at energy as being a sector in secular ascendancy. It searched for the next secular growth opportunity.
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