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Sorry Jeff, You May Be Wrong

June 30, 2009

Analysis of:GE’S Immelt Says Crisis Period Over, Sees 2010 Growth | www.bloomberg.com

As someone who works in and studies the transportation sector, which many people consider to be a leading economic incidator, I have some bad news for Jeff: You're probably wrong about 2010.  I realize that Mr Immelt is part of the Obama ecopnomic team of advisors, and I realize that the Administration is doing everything possible to talk uyp this economy, but every objective indicator points to a continued economic malaise for an extended period of time.  The numbers are very very weak, and other indicators such as containerboard (packaging) data is also in the tank. And today, the U of Michigan Consumer Confidence came in below 50. Not good.   Finally, amongst my fellow Presidents and CEO's they all agree. We have no idea what we will have to deal with in 2010. With Cap and Trade, Card Check, Health Insurance and changes in the tax laws, there is too much uncertainty that will adversely affect businesses. 

More Cuts To Come

December 15, 2008

Analysis of:Con-way Pares 2008 Earnings Forecast, Cuts 1,450 Jobs (Update2) | www.bloomberg.com

Most people fail to grasp just how soft the freight market really is. The Cass Index for November 2008, shows freight at 2.8% higher than it was in January 1990 (the baseline year). The implications of this are huge for every freight carrier. Conway is simply getting ahead of the curve with their move. While the move is driven by the overall market, some are speculating that with card check legislation on the way under an Obama Administration,  Conway, as a non union carrier, is sending a message to their work force about the condition of the company. You can expect other carriers to be making similar moves.

15% is no done deal

November 28, 2008

Analysis of:YRC to Get Concessions? | tdu.org

Having recently interviewed the Chairman and CEO of YRCW (Bill Zollars), there is no indication that this is their strategy. The link for this interview will be up next week at www.Tranzact.com. They have restrucutred their balance sheet, repurchased debt at a deep discount and are hunkering down (as are all carriers) to survive 2009

This Is Just The Beginning ....

November 26, 2008

Analysis of:Weekly US rail shipments tumble 9.1 percent | biz.yahoo.com

One of the few bright spots in this economy has been the performance of the railroads, but even they are not immune to the forces of this economy. You can expect weak shipment activity for the next several months. 

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