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LANDMARK MALL ARTICLE MISSES THE POINT

July 16, 2009

Analysis of:As Owner Struggles, Landmark Mall Languishes | www.washingtonpost.com

The article talks about the issues with Landmark Mall as though it is somehow unique or simply brought on by the current horrific economy. The truth is the fundamental concept of the enclosed regional center has been dying for at least 30 years or more. General Growth and the other enclosed mall developers in the United States have many more challenges than they care to admit.  

MALL FEARS WELL FOUNDED

October 21, 2008

Analysis of:Mall Owners' Shares Slide on Retail Fears | online.wsj.com

Unlike the single family home industry that reflects its problems almost immediately, mall owners tend not to feel the effects of a bad economy until sales slow dramatically and stores start to close in large numbers. Most mall owners are not sensitive to the retail merchandise industry and see their centers as more of a commodity. Malls have been slowly losing market share for decades. While consumers had less leisure time to spend shopping in inefficient malls, developers ignored the socio-economic changes, such as; women working outside the home climbed from 25% in the 60's to about 60% today. Due to this and other pressures, the average american families leisure time fell from 40 hours per week to less than 15 hours in the last 30 years and internet sales are climbing. The bigger question is what developers will still own substantial mall portfolios 24 months from now and who will own the ones that fail.

SUNSHINE STATE REPORT FROM THE TRENCHES

September 1, 2008

Analysis of:Market Report: Sunshine State? | www.multihousingnews.com

I not sure what Sunshine State this article is talking about. However, the one I live in is a real estate trainwreck. I am an commercail real estate agent and shopping center development consultant and there is no good news coming from Florida. The article refers to people still moving to Florida. The facts are that more people are leaving than coming. Palm Beach County Schools actually lost students beginning last year, for the first time in many years. This is an area that couldn't build classroom trailers fast enough to handle the increases in attendance two years ago.

FINANCIALS SHOT IN THE FOOT

August 26, 2008

Analysis of:Some Fear Commercial Property Loans Will Be Next Stage in Downturn | www.nytimes.com

Financial markets wring their hands over whether commercial real estate is going to be as hard hit as homes, when they are the ones that are insuring a tragic outcome through their own histerical policies. Financial executives have said that they are not about to make "risky" loans in these times. That is the approach we would have all appreciated over the last 10 years or so. The problem is they will not make loans for high quality projects either and thousands of projects, all over the country, are sitting while Americans loose their jobs.

GETTING BLOOD FROM A STONE

August 4, 2008

Analysis of:Simon Says: Beware Mall Operators | biz.yahoo.com

No matter what the story, Simon and all other shopping center developers fortunes are directly tied to retail rents and rents are directly tied to sales. Depending on the region, retail and food sales are down 10% to 30% and an unprecidented number of independent retailers and restarantuers are simply closing their doors. "You can't get blood from a stone," my Mom used to say, and you can't get rent from a tenant with poor sales.

HIGH GAS PRICES EASY, NO TIME,THE REAL PROBLEM!

July 31, 2008

Analysis of:Panel: Gas Woes Changing Retail | www.globest.com

The recent spike in gas prices has been followed by a reduction in crude oil and the promise of cheaper gas in the future. But no one believes it will cease to be a problem for retailing and every other facet of our daily lives. But is this our biggest problem in the retail and shopping center business? I contend that we will adapt to the energy problems, electric and hydrogen cars will give Detroit new life and the condition will be mitigated. More pervasive that energy is the dramatic reduction of leisure time in the United States for the average American family.

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