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Not All Alternatives Are Equal

December 10, 2008

Analysis of:Alternative energy ideas power down | www.delawareonline.com

It's wrong to make blanket statements about all alternative energy technologies or suggest they will come out of the recession at the same time. Wind power, which is the only thing that can economically compete with new coal does not generally receive venture funding, hence while it is economical and makes sense now and for the future it will be affected by the credit markets. Solar is still expensive power and is still garnering the lion's share of VC money. Sales of biofuels are generally governed by the RFS mandates. All of these have different risk profiles. The price of oil and derived fuels remains an unknown risk likely to increase over time. What is least sexy, has the lowest risk and yields the greatest and unequivocal savings are energy efficiency and conservation efforts... the proverbial "negabarrels" i.e. the cheapest fuel is the fuel you don't have to buy.

Blend Pumps Will Help Retailers Capture Greater Share of Ethanol Tax Credits

November 24, 2008

Analysis of:U.S. raises ethanol fuel standard for 2009 | www.upi.com

The RFS as mandated by the EISA (2007) called for 11.1 billion gallons of Ethanol (Etoh) to be blended in 2009. This and the yearly mandated escalations of biofuels volumes until 2022 hasn't changed. What does change is yearly gasoline consumption and therefore the resulting % of the whole that the blended Etoh is projected to represent. The number, in this case 10.21%, is required to be entered into the Federal Register at the end of each year. The state of Texas petitioned the EPA to reduce the RFS earlier this year and was rebuffed. The corn and ethanol lobby have sought increases in the RFS to keep the industry growing. When the price of etoh is less than gasoline blenders use more as they arbitrage higher margins. At times this has led to etoh blending above the RFS dictates.

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