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China's internal Iron Ore supply pressures make deals like Aquila inevitable

September 10, 2009

Analysis of:Baosteel to buy 15% of Aquila | www.ft.com

Beyond the headlines of more natural resources tie ups by China, additional pressure is coming on their own internal iron ore production due to declining grades, high stripping ratios, higher average and marginal costs across many fragmented less efficient mining operations and a greater percentage of mine expansions going underground. More deals with external suppliers are expected in order to feed steel growth and particularly to make up for the future erosion of their own ore output.

Precision Castparts - A Class Act in Acquisition-Driven Growth

September 5, 2009

Analysis of:Precision Castparts Up on Carlton Forge Deal | www.washingtonpost.com

Precision Castparts by just completing another of its many strategic deals is outpacing its competitors' growth and reach by its acquisition drive and is filling remaining capability gaps upstream and downstream, while increasing its operating margins from an average 14.5% in 2005 to 26.8% in the latest June 2009 quarter. We may expect more of the same with future bolt-on acquisitions in alloys (possibly something in titanium), investment castings, forgings and fasteners.

Inventories' effect on Aluminum prices may be less than expected

August 18, 2009

Analysis of:Inventories May Temper Aluminum Rally | online.wsj.com

The hypothesis being discussed lately in the aluminum market is that the still large inventories will temper the price rally underway. While LME inventories are large by historical standards, most of these inventories are tied up in financial deals which will be slowly unwound over time. In addition, inventory levels in days of supply are coming down as demand is rising around the world and recent major market events will reduce the supply-demand imbalance going forward.

Aluminum - Is There Light at the End of this Tunnel?

August 6, 2009

Analysis of:Shares of Metals Makers Jump | finance.yahoo.com

Aluminum price moves have lagged the other metals like copper and zinc both on the upside since 2002 and now during the period of global recovery, but have risen sharply during July. Positive recent market events - restocking, rising scrap prices, regional shortages of available metal - have analysts forecasting the market moving from oversupply this year to a moderate deficit in 2010 setting the stage for a return to more normal market conditions and prices north of $1.00 per pound in 2010.

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