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BNP Paribas vs Fortis: Time is now for Reason and Statemanship to dominate Greed, Sentimentalism and Political Shorttermism.

February 9, 2009

Analysis of:Will a renegotiated deal seal BNP’s messy purchase of a Belgian bank? | www.economist.com

In September the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands and Luxembourg all injected capital to stabilise Fortis Bank . The Dutch then nationalised their bits of Fortis (including ABN Amro) and the Belgians agreed to sell to BNP Paribas the "Belgian" businesses of Fortis. BNP Paribas still awaits confirmation of the transaction., which was suspended by the Court of Appeals. Even a vote by Fortis shareholders on February 11th may not end the saga, despite that BNP Paribas and the new Belgian government have tried to sweeten the deal. Ping An, a Chinese insurer that is Fortis’s biggest investor, is reportedly planning to say “no” to the deal. In an extreme scenario the Belgian government could let Fortis holding company go bankrupt, leaving the shareholders without anything and finalize the sale of Fortis Bank to BNP Paribas, even though the political and legal fallout would be very considerable, for the Fortis saga touches about 2/3 of all Belgian households.

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