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Recession Over--depends on the math.

August 6, 2009

Analysis of:Ingersoll-Rand sees signs recession is almost over | www.marketwatch.com

The end of a recession will be one quarter of positive GDP. Looking at some of the more creative math in the last 24 months that positive quarter will most likely be the third quarter. However, this does not mean a return to robust growth in any industry. With today's computers and software GDP should be easier to figure, but it seems to have gotten more complicated or just easier to manipulate.

Retail Sales Overlooked as Important Economic Indicator

August 6, 2009

Analysis of:ATA index shows freight tonnage down again | www.todaystrucking.com

Year over year comparison of national retail sales ( consumer spending) shows a 7% decline. In the previous recessions of 1980-81 and 1990-1991 national retail sales declined 1%. For a economy that relies upon consumer spending this is very grim news for the freight business.

Mining: China, India and the Rest of the World

June 30, 2009

Analysis of:Mining industry: On a growth trail | economictimes.indiatimes.com

China and India still have positive GDP growth in what has been one of the deepest recessions of the last fifty years. Much of that growth is attibuted to internal consumption as China's exports have declined 25%. When you consider that China and India may have as many as 2 to 3 billion people that consumption potential is easy to comprehend.

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