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Solvency is the Issue, not liquidity

August 17, 2011

I have always believed Gold was undervalued. We are finally hitting realistic prices in these markets. Crude oil will be trading above $130-150 per barrel in two-three years and will stay above those prices (like gold and silver have).But what about the fundamentals also , they turned down sharply – and was led by the declining trade and shipping figures as shown by the Baltic and volatile credit markets, led by potential interest rate hikes after the ratings cut ; hence the fall !!

Wealth Protection under Hyperinflation Watch !

August 17, 2011

Over the 1944 to 1971 period of Bretton Woods, gold coverage for dollars printed by the Federal Reserve had fallen progressively from 55% to 22%. The US was in difficulty and on August 15th 1971 (the so-called Nixon Shock) President Nixon unilaterally decided without consultation with Congress to impose a wage freeze, a 10% duty on imports and 'closed the gold window' ending convertibility. The Nixon Shock succeeded in liberating global economies and markets flourished - for a while.

Zen & the Art of Trading Silver

May 30, 2011

Silver has gone up by nearly 132% in the last 8 months. Silver has burnt many an investor between 1980 and now………… When priced in silver gold is plunging….We're getting close to recent lows in the gold :silver ratio, and days like today, when gold is up but lesser % and silver jumps strongly %, only bring us closer to the most extreme levels. Point to ponder is the convergence of silver and gold and crude moving along side a static dollar index...........historically this was a divergence trade and they moved inversely – but now they are moving in tandem...and then moving inverse again. Thus no diversifications of portfolio or mitigation :- risk on – risk off

Crude oil, Congress coalition & Currency markets

March 7, 2011

This morning Nymex WTI Crude is marching ahead crossing the $105 resistance—it is currently trading at 105.70, ICE Brent is trading at 116.87. The middle-east crisis is refusing to die down and price of oil shoots upward.The UPA alliance in power in India at the Federal govt.. requires to clear the halfway mark at 272 seats to stay in power at the center. With more than half of the term yet to expire, and the largest party in the coalition will be struggling to convert those who have provided outside support to join the coalition, a sword always hanging on its head.Euro continued to benefit from interest rate differentials with 2-year interest spreads widening to over 100 bps for the first time since 30 Dec 2008

Subject: how high can gold go- 1450$ - 1600$ -1700$ this year

February 24, 2011

Gold might look frothy – but it's not a bubble yet Gold is set to continue its record run this year after finishing 2010 at its highest level in nearly three decades. Can prices double in the next 12-36 months ie. go to 2700$ or thereabouts and where shall Silver go to ??A gold silver ratio of 30-40 suggests a silver price of 43$ - 50$ - 65$ --90$if gold goes to a 1700-2700$ range

Gold & Silver -- it's not a bubble yet

February 15, 2011

Now I feel gold is taking a rest and dollar has swung up ; thus a stronger dollar index is leading to severe corrections in many asset class especially commodities – We are currently seeing a flashback up within the down corrective phase – I expect consolidation / range trade here before the next trend is clear.............Short term volatile and down (if dollar is strong ) – longer term I expect to see much higher prices late later this year !!!But I warn you now – caveat emptor. Silver is an extremely frustrating and volatile metal. I keep a position in silver at all times, because you never know when it is going to soar. And one day it will, just as it did in 1980 when it went to $50, beyond the wildest dreams of almost everyone.I

The Link Between Commodity prices and ultimate Social unrest

February 15, 2011

Could Commodities strat triggering next banking crisis -- Banks seen chasing yield in emerging markets -- Will suffer when commodities bust amid over-supply and Chinese slowdown -- Sovereign defaults to follow Meanwhile, highly leveraged Anglo-Saxon economies, especially the U.S. and the U.K., have had to raise interest rates to counter the inflationarypressures brought on by rising commodity prices. Barely solvent firms and individuals that had been muddling along since the 2008 crisis are forced into bankruptcy. This, in combination with the renewed distress in the financial sector caused by the commodity-price meltdown triggers a wave of sovereigncrises. Central banks once again slash rates, but it's too late; investors have panicked.

The Consequences will be Profound

February 15, 2011

Please find enclosed a report I wrote last week on the sovereign debt crisis emerging as rating agencies increase the possibility of higher rates in Japan, EU and finally USA as the high ratings are cut due to high public sector debt to GDP ratio. India’s problems though not magnified yet are also moving up in the market’s radar, inverted yield curve emerging in India due to inflation, high borrowings and slower interest rate increase from RBI..........The consequences of higher inflation and higher borrowing costs meeting lower credit ratings and market’s emerging fear of too much debt & leverage can be profound..........leading to re-rating of all assets vis-à-vis major changes and volatility in the currencies they are denominated in.

The Historical Contrarian of Financial Hypotheisis -

June 30, 2010

Hi , this is another (mangled version)of the cobweb theory ; For your reading pleasure.............. below is my comments made about an year back ; more in relation to Greenspan and Hank Paulson rather than Warren Buffet. Being an admirer of Michael Lewis i forwarded his article from The New Republic to several people and chat sites. You can imagine the horrific reactions my preamble remarks and the article solicited, everybodies missus and madam was furious with me. How dare one criticises Mr.Buffet, Huck Finn meets 35 billion dollars,The Sage of Omaha !! I retreated,keeping me company was an Indian analyst in the US, deeply cynical , and an ex Calcuttan who wrote a study shorting Bekshire stock. Having seen our youth flushed away by marxist liberal shitheads like Jyoti Basu(now celebrated as the late great Indianleader of the people and the last of the gentleman commie )we were sceptical of popular figures. Only in Calcutta will you still find such contrarians, history had made us sceptical of Greenspan,Buffet, Jyoti basu and Obama. Hope you'll will like my blogs and the articles below and attached. Hope you'll bought gold after reading what i have been saying for the past 3 years............

Energy Market Reviews

October 27, 2009

Analysis of:October Crude Oil Report | www.commoditylive.in

The gold report that I had sent earlier called Gold As Money is throwing up some interesting convergence and seems to have a compelling underlying theme on monetary debasement ; thus gold finding value amongst investors as the buying power of fiat paper money erodes = and that leads as always to hyperinflation eventually< as inflation expectations soar making it a self fulfilling prophecy> What makes hyper inflation even more of an impending problem is the possibility that Crude oil – Petroleum Products prices may now increase supported by a combination of Geopolitical issues + Decline of Dollar or even more importantly the perception that dollar shall decline even more.

Shamik Bhose article presenting Gold investments Viewed as Monetary Asset

October 12, 2009

Analysis of:Gold as Money | www.4shared.com

Gold is set to continue its record run this year ; Can prices double in the next 12-36 months ie. go to 1240$ -1620$- 2450$ ?? We begin Gold and the Dollar with a look at Gold SeasonalitySince the beginning of its long-term bull market gold has ALWAYS risen between mid August and the final trading day of the year. The gain over this period has ranged from 1.1% to 24.7%, with an average of 11.4%. Year: Net Change in Spot Gold Price Between 15th Aug and 31st Dec:2001 +1.1%2002 +10.5%2003 +14.4%2004 +9.6%2005 +17.0%2006 +2.1%2007 +24.7%2008 +12.0%2009 + 8.25% 17 August to 22 Sept

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