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We know the Irish bail out is coming, but what is it going to be used for?

November 18, 2010

The Central Bank Governor has today told us what we all already knew: Ireland is taking a monster loan from the EU. But we're also told by the Prime Minister and Finance Minister that we do not need a bail out. So who is right?

Deutsche Bank's "Trillion Dollar Mean Reversion"

January 26, 2010

Analysis of:The bank problem in a single chart | ftalphaville.ft.com

Many thanks to Jim Reid of Deutsche Bank for updating and reissuing his graphical illustration of bank profits over the last 40 years. As well as putting the bank bust/boom of 2008-9 into context, it also helps to explain the political challenges bank reform poses within democratic societies.

A "Thank You" to President Obama from the European Banking Industry

January 26, 2010

Analysis of:Wall Strasse Beats Wall Street on Obama Bank Bill | www.bloomberg.com

Matthew Lynn's ("ML's") article on Bloomberg today offers a vision of global leadership by Europe's banks thanks to President Obama's proposals to restructure US banks. I agree with ML that the proposals do more to punish banks (read: "Goldman Sachs") for excess remuneration, than provide a logical response to systemic financial risk. Yesterday's article on FT alphaville (http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2010/01/25/133431/the-background-to-the-volcker-rule/) provides useful context to ML's piece.

Obama's bank reforms: the Ryder Cup of banking?

January 25, 2010

Analysis of:Bankers to lobby for softer reforms | www.ft.com

President Obama's proposed reform of US banks has not received universal acclaim. In particular, the UK government's response has been rather lukewarm. What I think we are seeing are different responses to the same short term political challenge, ie bank bonuses that laugh in the face of suffering tax payers who have made the continued payment thereof possible. US and European (well, British) responses to this challenge are very different. They risk damaging consensus on global banking reform.

Will Darling regret his Bankers' Bonus Levy?

January 13, 2010

Analysis of:U.K. Bankers Give Up on Bonus Levy as Tax Rise Looms | www.bloomberg.com

At the time of the Pre-Budget Report ("PBR"), the UK Treasury estimated it would raise £550m net in additional tax. This implied an expected significant scaling back of bonus payments to staff to avoid the levy. Now it is expected to raise £2 billion, suggesting no such scaling back. Is this good or bad for Alastair Darling, the UK's Finance Minister?

UK government actively encouraging offshoring of all financial services

December 9, 2009

Analysis of:Darling unveils super-tax plans for bankers' bonuses | news.bbc.co.uk

Plans announced in the UK Pre-Budget Report ("PBR") provide encouragement to offshore financial services not provided to UK clients. The "super-levy" follows earlier discouragements to financial services firms: taxation of non-UK domiciled individuals, increases in income tax rates generally etc.There is a risk that this proposal will, when considered with the other recent tax changes, provide a tipping point that causes banks to restructure operations so as to take them outside UK taxation.

Will the last Hedge Fund manager to leave London please turn out the lights

November 16, 2009

Analysis of:BlueCrest to relocate 50 staff to Geneva | www.ft.com

There is growing evidence that London is losing its allure as the location of choice for alternatives investment managers. There is no one factor driving this, but a combination of an increased focus on the taxation of expatriates; higher taxation generally; perceived over-regulation of alternative investments; and intrusion into the remuneration structures of investment managers.

It's not just UK banks the EC is after

November 16, 2009

Analysis of:The Euopean Commission flexes its muscles over British Banks | business.timesonline.co.uk

The European Commission's requirements for continued state aid to RBS and Lloyds may look like unwarranted interference in the UK's domestic banking market. They are, however, consistent with the approach taken towards other dominant banking groups in other EU states. They are very likely to be of long-term benefit to UK consumers.

Can we be in recovery if we are still in intensive care?

November 16, 2009

Analysis of:Is the Recovery Real? | www.margolisadvisory.com

There is undoubtedly a technical recovery in progress. Economic indicators globally say so. However, is this really a recovery, or just the impact of the heady cocktail of fiscal and monetary "drugs" that governments and central banks continue to hand out? This analysis looks at the recovery from a UK perspective.

Hedge Funds' response to proposed EU regulation

June 26, 2009

Analysis of:Hedge funds to take on Europe | business.timesonline.co.uk

The proposed EU Alternative Investments ("AI") Directive is wide ranging.  Market participants need to consider what the EU is seeking to achieve.  There is also a need to reflect on the part played by certain types of AI in the financial crisis.  AI providers also need to think on the possible commercial benefits of EU regulation.  Previous versions of this in mainstream mutual funds, ie the UCITS Directives, have been of massive benefit to fund promoters in distributing products globally, not just within the EU.

Are "bookies" a gamble in The Great Recession?

May 18, 2009

Analysis of:Ladbrokes profits hit by Cheltenham | uk.reuters.com

Ladbrokes' trading statement today really blames recent profit falls on "bad luck".  We, the punters, are meant to reel off the hard luck stories when we lose to them.  However, bookies also can get hit in a pretty uncontrollable way when hot favourites deliver, as they did in this year's Cheltenham Festival.  The real question, though, is whether The Great Recession will see more, or less, money staked generally.  Is betting seen as a luxury to be curtailed as disposable income comes under pressure, or a potential source of additional income?

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