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Commodity Prices Rising or Falling?

July 31, 2008

Analysis of:Gold futures drop $36 in three days | www.marketwatch.com

Commodities such as base metals, oil and agricultural products have enjoyed unprecedented increases inthe last 3 years can it continue? What will the effect of continuing price increases be or a potential drop? Can consumers sustain the increases?    

Chinese Subsidies Continue for Exporters

July 28, 2008

Analysis of:China to Help Guangzhou Factories | industryweek.com

- Chinese manufacturers continue to be unfairly subsidized - North American Manufacturers will be negatively affected - Will Canadian and US governments do anything

Would Gary Bettmen like a do over on ownership of the Nashville Predators

July 15, 2008

Analysis of:Del Biaggio investors want answers | www.mercurynews.com

The NHL has another ownership black eye that probably could have been avoided. How was this allowed to happen?

Railroads in for Long Term Prosperity?

July 15, 2008

Analysis of:Railroads: The Calm After the Storm | investerms.com

Will railroads return to the importance level they were in 1900 when the big railroad stocks dominated the NY Stock index? If not to that level how far? Will the boom in railroad usage last? Will the convenience of truck usage overcome the cost advantage of rail freight? What will environmental rules do to increase or decrease the advantages of railroads?

Ontario Investment In Nuclear Needed to Keep Lights On

June 23, 2008

Analysis of:$45 trillion 'revolution' against warming urged | www.msnbc.msn.com

Ontario has become a net importer of electricity and power which used to be a cost advantage has now become a cost disadvantage Will a new nuclear building program add to the huge debt being paid down by electricity consumers in Ontario Would Ontario be better off if a private company like Bruce Nuclear was building the new reactors instead of Ontario Power Generation a crown corporation.     

Oil Price Spike or Permanent State of Affairs?

June 11, 2008

Analysis of:Why oil prices will tank | money.cnn.com

High oil prices are spurring increased spending on oil sands, shale oil, oil from coal and increased exploration. What will happen if the price falls dramatically? The reduction in oil use particualrly for transportation should eventually affect price unless third world increased demand makes up for North American drop inusage. How will governments in places like India and China continue to provide price support for fuel usage? Is there not a finite amount of oil or carbon substances available at reasonable prices and would that not imply oil prices will stay higher?    

Government Handouts to create jobs

June 3, 2008

Analysis of:Next Generation of Jobs Fund | www.ontariocanada.com

Proper use of government money Is it right to use this money from the government What are the tax implications    

Steel Prices are Too High to be Sustained

May 27, 2008

Analysis of:High steel prices hit engineering industry | www.thenews.com.pk

The rapid rise in steel and all metal prices can not be sustained without pricing some users out of the market. How long will the rise in steel pricing be sustained before the reduction in purchased volume or an increase in capacity results in a reduction in pricing How many companies particulaly in North America will be badly hurt and even suffer bankruptcy becauser of the rapid rise in steel pricing.

Bidding war for Enodis

May 22, 2008

Analysis of:Manitowac Returns with $2.11 billion Bid for Enodis | www.marketwatch.com

The consolidation of the food equipment industry is happening at a breakneck pace despite the slow down in the economy that has to be affecting the customers. The price that whoever wins Enodis among ITW and Manitowac pays will be too high given the historical earnings of Enodis. What consolidation will be required to gainthe synergies required. Manitowac has few obvious ones while ITW's synergy potential is fraught with anti trust implications.     

ITW buys Enodis Good or bad?

May 12, 2008

Analysis of:Illinois Tool Works buys Enodis Plc for $2.1 billion cash $210 million debt | money.cnn.com

What will the effect of this further major consolidation of the food equipment industry be on restaurants and other buyers of commercial food equipment. Will there be an anti trust implication Will Manitowac counter bid Does this mean there will be more consolidation in the food equipment industry and is that good or bad

Steel and Metal Scrap Pricing Not Going to Go Lower Soon

May 1, 2008

Analysis of:Global steel prices - brace for a correction? | www.reuters.com

- Raw material prices for steel makers are escalating at a very high rate - Metal scrap pricing continues to rise rapidly and it always falls before metal pricing falls at least for steel - We can expect to see continuing steel price increases in North America and Europe but what will happen in China and Korea?         

Fuel Costs and the Effect on Imports/Exports

April 29, 2008

Analysis of:Diesel Prices Hurting Truckers | www.fox6.com

Fuel costs will drive costs to transport goods up When the cost to move goods rises then the cost to import/export must rise When will that effect the globalization of the economy?     

Consolidation in the Commercial Food Equipment Industry

April 21, 2008

Analysis of:Enodis accepts £950m Manitowoc offer | www.ft.com

The commercial food equipment industry has been consolidating for some time. Enodis and ITW Food Equipment (Hobart) have been the biggest players. They are the only two companies that have full products lines for both the Food Service (restaurants, cafeterias, schools etc.) and Food Retail (grocery stores) segments. Other companies like Manitowoc had dominant market shares in particular segments like drink dispenser and ice machines in the case of Manitowoc. The history has been for market consolidation to take place in times of downturns for the industry like now exists. With this consolidation the combined Enodis Maitowoc combination will be the clearly dominant player. ITW has a corporate philosophy to be the dominant player in their chosen markets like in strapping with Signode or laminates like Wilsonart. This will probably push ITW to look at acquiring some of the remaining indepenant or semi independant players in the commercial food equipment market.

Chinese subsidization of Commodity Materials

November 27, 2007

Analysis of:Japan urges China to ease rare metals supply | www.alertnet.org

Chinese manufacturers are paying less than world commodity prices for metals and other materials which has the effect of driving out of business North American competitors. In the short term North American buyers of these parts and retail consumers may benefit from this pricing but like the rare earth example companies may soon find themselves in an impossible position. If you can not get the product or a quality product then you are out of business. The best example of this may be the contaminated protein supplements provided to pet food manufacturers in North America this year. Only one small supplier of melamin exists in North American and to my understading it is not viable due to predatory pricing from China. How much longer before this same situation could exist in the metal fabricating and injection molded plastics industries.  

Stelco Takeover a good move

September 4, 2007

Analysis of:Stelco agrees to $1.1bn US Steel takeover | www.ft.com

Canada no longer has a domestically owned primary steel manufacturer USWA locals at Stelco lose leverage US Steel improves its position

It is Not Just Fuel Surcharges That are at Issue

August 28, 2007

Analysis of:Trucking firms face price-fixing lawsuit | www.emailthis.clickability.com

The volatility of commodity prices for energy, oil, steel and other metals has left manufacturing companies in a position where they could be squeezed out of business unless they can recoup raw material price increases

Recycling, not only necessary but also economic.

July 6, 2007

Analysis of:The Truth About Recycling | www.economist.com

All the analysis of recycling seems to focus on the economics of recycling based on spot prices and immediate returns. As we now know the environment and commodity markets are in fact subject to very long term forces. All of the items that we recycle are going to some day not be available unless we recover them now or in the future. Recycling must be looked on as a long term accounting exercise not the short term economic analysis we are doing today. Current accounting techniques just do not justify recycling but is it recycling that is uneconomic or the accounting techniques that are wrong?

Implications of higher gasoline prices

May 10, 2007

Analysis of:Watch out: Here comes $4 gasoline | money.cnn.com

1. Higher gasoline pricing will not affect the overall economy but it will change the distribution of business
2. Automobile manufacturers and their suppliers will be most effected and as a result the most agile of them will survive and prosper
3. Higher gasoline pricing will reflect in higher transportation costs and as a result make importing less competitive to domestic manufacturing. i.e. this is an opportunity for domestic manufacturers to exploit

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