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GLG News by this Author
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...If This Isn't A Shoe, Is It A Boot?
October 22, 2009
Commercial Real Estate Debt Won't Be the Next Shoe to Drop, Economists Say | retailtrafficmag.com
The only good news is that most of the loans in question were not securitized and spread through the financial system as cash-equivalent.The bad news is multi-faceted.To expect REITs to be able to stop the fall, is to rely on a frayed shoe lace.
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Land, Although They're Not Making More Of It...
October 15, 2009
Builders Grounded By Land Prices | online.wsj.com
The problem is less a question of land, and more of valuation.Not all firms are equally affected.
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September 25, 2009
Landmark Decision: Massive Relief for Homeowners and Trouble for the Banks | bit.ly
The Kansas Supreme Court has made it much harder to foreclose on a securitized mortgage.If upheld on the inevitable appeal this could have a disastrous effect on bank capital.The only slightly better news is that without mortgage payments, some people will consume more.The magnitude of this decision, if it is upheld, if it becomes law anywhere beside Kansas, is hard to overstate.
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Globalization - Europe's CMBS Problem Echoes the USA
September 22, 2009
European commercial property owners face debt time-bomb | www.ft.com
This situation is a testament to the power of globalization.It will get worse before it gets better.But all real estate, finally, is local.The utility of overall averages is in assessing the vulnerability of the financial sector.
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Small May Not Be Beautiful, But Big Is Usually Ugly
September 19, 2009
Govt Working on Real Estate Regulator for Housing Sector | www.indianrealtynews.com
The easiest way to smother property rights and destroy wealth is to over-regulate it.The proper role of government regulation is not to supplant private market activity, but rather to provide, in this case, such things as a registry of ownership, and a venue to resolve disputes.So, if government wants to establish a "land agency", it can either facilitate ownership, transfer, and (incidentally) taxation, or it can try to supplant existing private contractual avenues.
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...So This Makes REITs Great Investments?
August 18, 2009
Maguire Discloses Impending Defaults | www.globest.com
Maguire Properties announces defaults, what are the implications?
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From The Folks Who Brought You AAA Rated Mortgage CDOs
July 18, 2009
Gray Clouds Persist for Equity REITs Despite Rays of Sunshine | www.pr-inside.com
The credit rating agencies have not distinguished themselves in this bust. The problem might have something to do with the fact that credit is only part of the question when it comes to real estate. This, in turn, may have something to do with the prior success of asset valuation in mortgage risk management. If Fitch has a negative outlook at this point, there are two likelihoods: much more extreme risk, and possibly some selective opportunities.
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May 14, 2009
Home prices slide 14% | money.cnn.com
I'll be surprised. Again. We're presently, with this announcement, approximately at what I recently predicted for a bottom in national median home price.
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April 20, 2009
US Foreclosure Filings Jump as Moratoriums End | www.cnbc.com
Moratoriums don't affect fundamentals. The fundamental of foreclosure is jobs, which creates demand. Value is real, but secondary.
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April 13, 2009
Signs of life in California real estate | money.cnn.com
There are a number of statistics in the CNN article which are worthy of attention.
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It's All A Matter Of Perspective
April 7, 2009
$500K homes now selling for $200,000 | www.cnn.com
Comparison is difficult.
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March 29, 2009
Challenge to Landmark Law Worries Preservationists | www.nytimes.com
Preservation is a wonderful word. Adding "ism" to it does not, however, enhance its attraction. The tide of police power ebbs and floods, mostly flooding. Developers can get along just fine with NIMBY dominated planning, but what about the rest of us?
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March 24, 2009
Building in a bear market | money.cnn.com
This article is worth reading for quite a few small points. The small points tend to support the conclusion, that we may have found a bottom.
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I'm shocked, shocked to find that...
March 19, 2009
Rise in foreclosures 'a shock' | money.cnn.com
...foreclosures go up when employment goes down. The politics of foreclosure will certainly be explored this year. This will cease to be news with the return of economic growth.
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General Questions And General Answers
March 16, 2009
Are REITs worth it? | money.cnn.com
General questions and general answers are the substance of astrology. There is such a wide variety of REITs that a generality has little meaning. The one general thing about REITs is that each company has a strategy and execution.
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March 5, 2009
Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com
Sales rates are low. Inventories are high. Clearing the glut in the market isn't happening soon.
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Do You Think You've Hit Bottom?
March 2, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
First is an outline of where we presently are. Secondly, about how long will it take to finish the process? And where are residential price levels likely to be at that time?
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Fannie And Freddie Can't Fund Anything
February 27, 2009
Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com
Fannie and Freddie are broke. What's happening is that they are now conduits for Federal Reserve Funds. In other words, financial engineering and off-balance sheet entities still live.
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Brought To You By The Folks Who Created Subprime
January 16, 2009
Taming inflated home appraisals | money.cnn.com
The proposed HVCC is unlikely to change pressure on appraisers. The pressure will simply come from the Appraisal Management Company. If anybody really wanted independent loan appraisals, there are different mechanisms that would have a better chance.
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November 4, 2008
Nevada Has Highest Percentage of 'Under Water' Households | online.wsj.com
CoreLogic found a successful formula for publicity. The publicity may not be based on a valid number.
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