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How to fix the Economy (without it costing too much)

September 22, 2008

Analysis of:Will the Levee Break? An Ocean of Bad Debt Rises despite Fed Rescues | knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu

The recently proposed bailout was an inevitable solution to a ever-growing problem. The $800B will be the most costly endevour by the U.S. government since The New Deal proposal from the Great Depression. The key to the issue at-hand is two fold: first, the stabilization of the real estate prices. Second is the rising (and continuation of) delinquencies and foreclosures. The pain HAS to be shared by the U.S. taxpayer AND the investing community. Here's a solution.

There Will Be Blood(letting)

June 6, 2008

Analysis of:It Ain't Over Til It's Over: Financials, Credit Cards and Housing | seekingalpha.com

Citigroup has continued to show losses in global operations, some relating to subprime issues. However, while many of the financial institutions are showing losses, Citi's losses are different, which is a good thing for the investor.

Prometheus, please bring the credit unions fire!

March 7, 2008

Analysis of:Why Credit Unions Just Don't Get It. | credituniontimes.com

Considering the current fall-out in Commercial Lending with the big banks (most of which were deservingly so), such as Wachovia, Chase, and Bank of America, the Credit Union field has such great opportunities to grow their market-share if they just decided to move into the 19th Century, instead of living in the past, with forgotten lending practices and even more archaic management.

Driving with the rear-view mirror - Recession Fears Realized

March 3, 2008

Analysis of:Analysts give CIOs advice on weathering recession | www.infoworldmagazine.com

The Economist recently described specific events that would lead one to believe that the U.S. Economy is already in the throws of a recession, yet the nay-sayers (including our illustrious President) state that there is still some signs of life negating this apparent event. I feel that like the 90's, and later on, we will be looking back and saying, yes, we were in a recession, and why didn't we recognize the numbers that support this truth.    

Not Enough....Not Even Close

December 10, 2007

Analysis of:Llenders Agree to Freeze Rates on Some Loans | www.nytimes.com

The rate-freeze approved and being implemented by the government is not nearly the answer to the problems facing the Mortgage Industry, or the Financial District as a whole. The problem is systemic, and the solution is only one of a bitter pill to swallow.

The Greater Fool Theory?

October 16, 2007

Analysis of:Wilbur Ross Sees Mortgage Market Rising in Subprime Debt's Wake | www.bloomberg.com

Mr. Ross' acquisition of American Home Mortgage's servicing unit is a bold attempt to continue his legacy of "turnarounds" in the business arena. Like Merrill Lynch's purchase of First Franklin, Ross' move may disprove the adage "when there's blood in the streets, buy real estate", and prove the "Greater Fool Theory" by overpaying for an unproven asset.

Why the Fed's Help Won't Help

September 3, 2007

Analysis of:Inside the Countrywide Lending Spree | www.nytimes.com

It is wonderful that President Bush's plan to help the disenfranchised keep their homes, and in some (albeit, few) cases, this program will work. But like the cut in the commercial lending rates, this is more symbolic than helpful, and the true problems will persist after the assistance package is complete.

The Greater Fool Theory

August 29, 2007

Analysis of:FOCUS Credit ratings face credibility gap, inquiries in wake of sub-prime woes | www.forbes.com

For years now, the Mortgage and Commercial Lending arena has been the subject of great debate as to whether sound credit decisions were being made. Now, finally, the proof of careless lending practices are coming to light: the question at hand is how will we deal with the fallout?

Pride Go Before The Fall

July 30, 2007

Analysis of:Countrywide profits fall 33% | www.inman.com

Countrywide's heavy reliance on its underwriting programs and steady appetite for Pay-Option ARM's has created havoc for its portfolio management team. Countrywide's belief that it was smarter than the Mortgage Industry has led to this situation, and we have only begun to see the impact.

Is the sky falling?

June 22, 2007

Analysis of:Ills Deepen in Subprime-Bond Arena | online.wsj.com

The fallout from the subprime mortgage market has been continually underplayed by the Federal Reserve Chairman. However, as the hangover from the mortgage origination party begins to settle in, the long-term impact is being felt across the financial sectors, and not just exclusively within the Mortgage Industry.

A Toothless Dog Behind the Steel Gate?

May 25, 2006

Analysis of:Steel mills face another big rise in price of iron | business.timesonline.co.uk

The global Steel Industry will all be watching with baited breath, as CVRD, of Brazil, the world’s biggest iron ore producer, forces a much disputed 19% price increase with ThyssenKrupp, one of its biggest customers. The implications of this rise can be huge, as the world will watch either ThyssenKrupp try to pass these costs to their biggest client, Baosteel, China’s biggest steelmaker. Boasteel is fighting this increase fiercely, by negotiating a lower rate of increase.

Finding Diamonds in the Rough

May 2, 2006

Analysis of:Housing Strength Shifts to New Markets | online.wsj.com

Truly the rise of interest rates and the general economic stagnation in the Coastal areas has had a significant impact on their respective housing markets. However, this article indicates there are still several markets that may have initially missed the housing boom, but have 'caught-up-with-the-class'. Furthermore, the strength of these market may help the inevitable landing in the country's overall real estate market.

Showdown with the 'Slowdown'

April 28, 2006

Analysis of:Economist Sees 8% Home Sales Drop | www.mesirowfinancial.com

The U.S. Economy has been driven by the Housing market for well-over 4 years now: when all other business sectors have either failed or fallen behind, the Housing market has performed admirably by support the economy's growth. Now with several adverse factors in-play, that growth is seriously threatened.

Flips, Falsifications, and Fraud

April 12, 2006

Analysis of:Home is where the fraud is -- Mortgage scams cost lenders billions; borrowers hit, too | www.marketwatch.com

In this article, the business implications are self-evident, and pervasive throughout the Banking Industry, as both investors and the institutions who are involved with the securitization of the mortgage-backed investments have seen a significant rise in the amount of fraud being perpetrated in the Mortgage Industry. The losses incurred by these scurrilous individuals can lead to massive losses of capital in many banking entities.

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