Mr. Jay Thompson

GLG News by Mr. Jay Thompson, President and General Manager

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Aftermarket Parts and Service Sector Really Growing - Can OEM's Take Share?

February 12, 2011

Sales of "part's" for vehicles / equipment in-service are the most profitable part of a durable goods business. Trucking is no different, but offers bigger growth potential today - and in the future. Those well-positioned in the after-warranty space will see more opportunity. With new truck pricing, tougher financing, etc. - older trucks are being put back into service and kept longer. Therein lies more opportunity.

Railroad Internal Numbers Give Some Interesting Insight Into The Economy

January 30, 2011

Analysis of:AAR: “Modest gains” in Week 3 traffic | www.railwayage.com

Union Pacific Corporation, Berkshire Hathaway owned BNSF, CSX and Norfolk Southern have reported their good 4th Quarter numbers revenue growth in the teens with profits up double of that and OR's around 70. Everything except for autos and building materials look good, so what does that mean? Our esteemed colleague Toby Kolstad addresses this sector very well, so we'll just add some comments on how us truckers look at it.

Truckload Truckers' Numbers Looking UP - With A Couple (Good) Surprises

January 28, 2011

Fiscal Fourth Quarter 2010 Truckload (TL) Carriers are reporting better results across the board. Swift Transportation and Knight Transportation are even adding notable capacity! Heres a quick look...

CSA 2010 Effect On Driver Shortage - Not So Much In The Near Term...

January 23, 2011

Nascent freight predictions have many fleets and investors turning their focus toward the impact of CSA 2010, the aging driver pool and other issues on "an impending acute" driver shortage. Our requests around what CSA 2010 really means - are up from shippers, logistics providers, smaller truckers and others watching the industry. We agree that the driver pool is changing, but we don't see it as the crisis and happening as quickly as some think. Here are some thoughts.

Navistar Class 8 Monthly Market Share In The Teens - Way Off Their Highs

January 17, 2011

Navistar Corporation Class 8 market share will most probably stay in the teems for a while. The November Wards Class 8 US share (customer deliveries) came at 16.3% for Navistar - off 10%+ from earlier in the year. Is it the 13 Liter versus 15 Liter question, Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) versus Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) or a little of both?

Redone Revisited HOS Revisions - Time Rules Will Cost Truckers

December 28, 2010

Analysis of:Trucking industry unhappy with proposed drive time rules | www.thecitywire.com

Improved trucking profits come mostly from improved productivity - as in most businesses. Other regulations have direct equipment capital, computer-related and training costs, but the Hours-of-Service (HOS) rules affect utilization - the real driver of trucking profits.

Navistar: Where Are The 2010 MaxxForce-powered Trucks - And How Are They Doin’?

December 16, 2010

2010-compliant Navistar Corporation MaxxForce 13 Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) Class 8 trucks are hitting the road in limited quantities. The most anyone seems to have are JB Hunt with 300+ on the ground, Con-way Truckload with a hundred and few others, but many are having to wait for theirs. We are involved with smaller users, some with several dozen - and offer the following...

Truck / Trailer “Requests For Financing” Offers Insights Into Higher Order Rates

December 9, 2010

Analysis of:Strong Class 8 orders bode well for trucking overall | fleetowner.com

The referenced article by Sean Kilcarr in Fleet Owner from earlier this week gives a good overview about the current increase in truck orders from the seasonal standpoint. We wrote a couple weeks ago (link) about financiers temporarily relaxing qualification standards to refill their portfolios with good credits - in order to help make their numbers look better. Here are some other issues to think about.

SWFT IPO Terms Released - With Even Better Potential Today Than Before

December 1, 2010

Analysis of:Swift Announces $942.6 Million IPO | www.truckinginfo.com

Swift Transportation’s IPO registration announced in July had the terms released yesterday. The 67.3MM shares at the expected $13-$15 will result in a $943MM raise - and a market value of $1.8B. Current revenue is estimated to be almost $2.2B with its 12,000+ company-owned trucks and almost 4,000 independent contractors. This looks good in spite of the reported loss last year…

Why Are New Trucks Sales Up? A Big Reason Is…

November 21, 2010

Financing availability is the key to ultimately swinging demand - and some think we are seeing a “clean-up the portfolio” bubble for better credits on the part of financiers. We agree and offer the following.

JBS Transportation EOBR Order Is An Indicator Of Several Issues

November 9, 2010

Analysis of:FMCSA Orders JBS Carriers to Install Electronic On-Board Recorders on its Entire Fleet of Commercial Trucks for Violating Hours-of-Service and Other Federal Safety Regulations | www.fmcsa.dot.gov

The U.S. Department of Transportation's Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA) ruling that JBS Transportation of Greeley, Colorado must install Electronic On-Board Recorders (EOBR’s) is one of the first with a larger carrier. It offers insight into some of the issues that need to be addressed in the supply chain.

Mexico Cross-Border Trucking - A Mexican Border Perspective

November 7, 2010

Analysis of:Mexican Officials Want U.S. Action on the Cross-border Trucking Dispute | www.truckinginfo.com

The Journal of Commerce recently quoted Luis Paz Vega who is in leadership of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) office at the DC Mexican embassy - that redoing the Mexican Truck in the US “demonstration program” won’t work. They instead want us to adhere to NAFTA and open the border up. Here’s some thoughts...

Technical Thoughts About SCR v. EGR - From A “Field Engineering” Perspective

October 24, 2010

Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) and Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) issues are both hot these days where buyers are now voting with their purchase decisions. Truckers have to become more technically proficient - and fleet / field engineers are dealing daily with this new stuff. OEM’s have their sales pitches, but users are discussing it their own way. Investors and financiers benefit from the current dialogue, as we all are betting on the future.

Navistar September 2010 Class 8 Market-Share Drops - Big-Time

October 18, 2010

Analysis of:Class 8 Truck Sales Up For Month, YTD; Class 6 Sees Continued Surge | www.truckinginfo.com

Navistar Corporation’s US Class 8 deliveries are showing about a 10-point share drop per Wards Communication numbers - both YOY and mid-YTD. This is with US Class 8 truck sales hanging in there month-to-month and sales notably better than 2009.

How Much Excess Capacity Is There Really In The LTL Sector? More Than You Think…

October 12, 2010

With Truckload (TL) carriers experiencing tightening capacity, we (and especially YRC Worldwide) are still hoping for the same in the Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector. There are several factors that limit the real decrease in LTL capacity - and real increases in LTL profitability. They include capacity in-service: trucks, trailers and terminals sitting idle; Information Technology (IT) and other firms with “hybrid” trucking models.

New Truck Sales Will Remain Slow With Used Doing Better - Here’s Some Why's

October 4, 2010

2010 is quickly passing with new truck sales falling short of most folks earlier predictions, but better than conservative estimates (like from us). Demand is being met by a strengthened used truck marketplace. There are several reasons including: freight demand, current fleet financials / utilization, regulations, higher new vehicle costs, tougher financing terms, available used trucks, newer truck engine product concerns, maintenance costs, truck drivers still available and other reasons.

SWA v. Majors’ Bags, Booze, Blankets, Braking & Bad Cheese / Attitude Issues

October 3, 2010

Analysis of:Southwest Airlines to buy AirTran for $1.4B | www.forbes.com

Success in a service business is largely about “service.” The Southwest Airlines purchase of AirTran brings all of the competitive fare / operational insight / supplier issues as noted by our colleagues Ernie and Addison, but less-frequent fliers will get something seemingly missing at the mega carriers - a good in-flight experience in coach! A recent American Airlines weekend trip reminds me of why a growing SWA / WN will be good for the traveling public.

In Addition To Diesel Engine SCR v. EGR Debate - There Are Still DPF Issues

September 23, 2010

While engine buyers are starting to see Navistars’ Advanced Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR) versus all others’ with Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) technologies, a “Hotter” issue in the field is the Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) problems, life and costs. With higher EGR rates with advanced EGR, does that mean higher DPF stress and costs? Probably!

Pilot-FlyingJ Making Money - But Costing Truckers More?

September 20, 2010

Analysis of:Pilot, Flying J merger appears to be home run, but some are crying foul | www.thetrucker.com

The merging of Flying J into Pilot Travel Centers LLC looks like a winner for Pilot, but with some concerns yet to be addressed. The referenced article by Jack Humphreville of TheTrucker publication lays out the pros for them, but also rightly notes the issues that truckers are seeing - plus concern by competitors and others. We offer the following from our trucking side of things.

Half Of Truckers Report Problems With Newer Engines - It’s Only Part Of Story

September 13, 2010

Analysis of:J.D. Power and Associates Reports: More than One-Half of Heavy-Duty Truck Owners Report Engine Problems in 2010, A Considerable Increase from 2002 | businesscenter.jdpower.com

J.D. Power and Associates has done a U.S. Heavy-Duty Truck Engine / Transmission Study survey for 14 consecutive years. It looks like problems are coming in much worse (double) as compared to before the EPA2004 & EPA2007 emissions rules were implemented. They result in costs that are seen in warranty claims, operators’ costs and sentiment. While these numbers are about pre-2010 engines, we are expecting higher problem numbers yet for 2010 - but at least with better fuel economy.

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