Jay Thompson

Mr. Jay Thompson

President and General Manager, Transportation Business Associates


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GLG News by Mr. Jay Thompson, President and General Manager

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Dallas Truck Show & Commercial Vehicle Outlook 2010 Summary - It’s Still Cloudy

September 6, 2010

Economy's Course Puzzling, But Changes in Equipment, Driver Pay Coming, Say Speakers at CV Outlook 2010 | www.truckinginfo.com

Transport experts gave us a good overview of HOT trucking topics a couple weeks ago at a meeting held along with the Dallas Truck Show. Issues included freight predictions, higher gross vehicle weights, smaller truck cabs, the “pending” truck driver shortage, the revised hours-of-service (HOS) rules coming, truck pricing increases and truck-maker vertical integration (meaning mostly engines). Here are some thoughts.

Record Used Commercial Truck Registrations Indicates Continued Slow New Sales

August 31, 2010

Polk: Used commercial vehicle registrations hit record levels | www.ccjdigital.com

Backing up reasons for Paccar Inc, Daimler, Cummins Inc., Navistar Corporation and others' strong parts sales numbers, the first half of 2010 registration data is confirming that truck operators are buying (and running) used versus new commercial vehicles. We expect to see that trend continue into late 2011.

PeopleNet Trucking Comm Devices Replacing Qualcomm’s At Heartland Express

August 15, 2010

Heartland Express chooses PeopleNet for onboard computing | www.ccjdigital.com

Heartland Express is switching their vehicle management / communication system from that from Qualcomm Incorporated to PeopleNet. PeopleNet is owned by Norwest Equity Partners whose limited partner is Wells Fargo & Co. It sends a message to the industry that less-expensive more “open communication” systems are not-only good for small and mid-sized fleets, but they can take business from an industry leader.

97K Lbs. US Gross Vehicle Weight Is Smart & Good For Some Industry Suppliers

August 7, 2010

Senate bill would allow heavier trucks on interstates | www.ccjdigital.com

Senate Bill S. 3705 was just introduced raising allowable Gross Vehicle Weight (GVW) on Interstate Highways from 80,000 to 97,000 pounds. It mirrors House Bill H.R. 1799, but the issue has failed in the past. If passed, States can opt in. Some Western US States already allow higher GVW’s, but it puts us on par with Europe at 97K and NAFTA partners Canada / Mexico at over 100K. While such legislation comes up almost every congress, it has many good outcomes and the best chance of passing yet.

2010 Emissions-Compliant Truck Orders & The SCR v. EGR Engine Debate

August 4, 2010

With the dust settling somewhat from the California Air Resources Board, EPA, Navistar Corporation, Daimler, Cummins Inc, Volvo et al meeting a couple weeks ago, we found some of the feedback comments - especially from potential buyers - interesting. In addition, numbers always tell the rest of story, so it’s also interesting to look at what the 2010 compliant engine orders look like.

American Trucking Association Freight Tonnage Index Signals A Slowdown?

July 27, 2010

ATA Truck Tonnage Index Fell 1.4 Percent in June | www.prnewswire.com

The American Trucking Association (ATA) seasonally adjusted truck freight tonnage index shows a negative trend for the last two consecutive months (May and June). It’s not viewed as a positive for freight planners - and the rest of us.

Better Trucking Productivity + Few New Trucks Added = Improved Profits, But…

July 26, 2010

The second quarter is coming in as some had expected => softening US economic activity. With inventories somewhat filled back up and the trucks running today still being able to pick up the marginally increasing demand, expect to see trucking profitability to stay relatively good and new truck sales to moderate. Used trucks continue to sell well for several reasons.

Better Trucking Productivity + Few New Trucks Added = Improved Profits, But…

July 26, 2010

The second quarter is coming in as some had expected => softening economic activity. With inventories somewhat filled back up and the trucks running today still being able to pick up the marginally increasing freight demand, expect to see trucking profitability to stay relatively good and new truck sales to moderate. Used trucks continue to sell well for several reasons.

Expect Truckers Profit’s To Look Good For 2010 - JB Hunt Offers Insight Why

July 19, 2010

J. B. Hunt's Earnings Jump on Increased Demand | www.truckinginfo.com

JB Hunt Transport Services profit jump for the second quarter 2010 is great news after the now several year trough we have been running in. As written here before, I am a fan of JB Hunt for a variety of reasons, but a quick look at their numbers shows us what is going on in the different segments. History tells us to put it all in perspective - and always be cautious with what we are seeing - AND utilization is where the real $$$ is!

Flying J & Pilot Truck Stops Cleaning Up Loose Ends - Creates Mega-Player

July 12, 2010

Pilot, Flying J complete merger | www.ccjdigital.com

The lining up of business models of Pilot Corporation and Flying J is nearing completion, so we can take a snapshot of the new model moving ahead. It’s smart for Pilot to keep Flying J as a brand for the huge “renegade” smaller fleet / owner-operator market, then try to win them over. There are numerous other positives, but truckers are still wondering about fuel pricing.

Problems Continue With YRCW Profit Model - Especially Compared To Competition

July 7, 2010

Saving Teamster Pensions | www.tdu.org

Excess capacity in Less-Than-Truckload (LTL) sector continues to be troublesome - more so than with truckload (TL). The basic profit a model within LTL also presents problems for some, as does utilization and the sales-revenue picture. Our colleague John Schultz has well-outlined the Teamster cost issues at YRC Worldwide, so we’ll summarize those with other issues to keep in mind.

Stevens Transport Orders New Paccar KW Model - Plus A Pick-Up For Cummins SCR

June 25, 2010

Stevens Transport orders 500 Kenworth T700s | www.ccjdigital.com

Paccar, Inc. gets a significant commitment for their new Kenworth T-700 aerodynamic from Stevens Transport of Dallas. Stevens ordered 500 trucks, and stuck to their 15-Liter engine approach replacing Caterpillar, Inc. C-15 with Cummins, Inc. ISX at 400 horsepower. While it’s not a huge order per some peoples’ metrics, it’s a big one in the premium truck and refrigerated sectors - and one to follow.

Arrow Asset Auctions - The Stuff Is Now Gone, So Now It’s About Courts & Numbers

June 17, 2010

Second day of Arrow Trucking auction brings higher bids | www.tulsaworld.com

The Arrow Trucking shutdown and ultimate bankruptcy has been written about before and offers many lessons. The auctions of this past week pretty much closes out the hard asset issues and is a reminder of what balance sheets turn into in liquidation. If nothing else, some people thought they got some deals.

Economic, Freight & Truck Sales Uncertainties

June 14, 2010

Economic Indicators Mixed On Continued Uncertainty | www.truckinginfo.com

We all know consumer spending drives freight demand, which affects new truck sales. Auto sales and home building accelerate the swings in the logistics world. Financing affects each of these issues, but all have something in common still today and as we look into the future - uncertainty!

Transport Outlook: Flat Growth Due To Slowing Freight Levels & More Regulations

June 3, 2010

Top Transport Concerns: Sluggish Economy, Unwise Legislation | www.worldtrademag.com

There have been numerous rosy pictures being painted about the US economy and the trucking rebounding robustly. We are realists - and also somewhat contrarians as compared to others. While things are definitely off the bottom, we fail to see from our ground level vantage point what will power the freight sector growth ahead. The referenced article gets it right when truckers’ planners assess the freight market and the regulatory environment.

Walmart Asking Their Suppliers For Shipping & Backhaul Opportunity - It's Smart!

May 23, 2010

Wal-Mart Asks Suppliers to Cede Control of Deliveries | www.bloomberg.com

The buzz in the logistics circles around Walmart is what the decision to take on inbound freight with their own trucks means. While there are thousands of analyses about every aspect of Walmart business by almost everyone from academia to consultants plus those doing the work, we offer the following from ground level regarding just a couple of the aspects of it.

IdleAire - Is 3rd Time Charm Or 3-Strikes You're Out? Idle Options….

May 18, 2010

IdleAire to Reopen at 23 Locations | www.ttnews.com

The changing issues within trucking plus on-the-road experience with idle reduction systems are leading many users to look at newer, simpler and more integrated offerings. With the increasing number of idle restrictions being implemented, the on-board solutions are coming on fast. We offer the following update from our perspective.

JB Hunt Big Navistar Prostar Order Not A Big Surprise

May 14, 2010

Navistar to Supply 5,000 ProStar+ to J.B. Hunt | www.truckinginfo.com

JB Hunt Transport Services announced their 5-year commitment to buy 5,000 Navistar Prostar+ trucks with the 13-Liter MaxxForce engine. This is great news for Navistar and a vote of confidence for Navistar’s Exhaust Gas Recirculation engine approach, but not unexpected when one thinks through each of their histories.Truck buyers look at a mix of brand / dealer relationships, how products performed, at fairness in the deal and then the deal ($$)! It’s similar to most car buyers process....

Trailer Sales To Be Fed By Major Fleets Planning For CA “SmartWay-type” Mandate

May 7, 2010

Wabash Widens Net Loss in First Quarter | www.truckinginfo.com

Operational and equipment-related regulations have historically had separate implementation processes. Operational ones like with compliance (hours-of-service, CSA 2010, recorders, etc.) or even State / local rules (idling, parking, etc.) take place on set dates for everyone. Equipment regulations are generally implemented more through normal “wear-out” of the equipment. When we mandate equipment issues, it causes all kinds of behavior out of the norm. We expect to see such with trailers now.

TransAm Trucking Replacing Almost All Trucks - Powered by 2010 Paccar MX Engines

April 26, 2010

TransAm Trucking Orders New Kenworths With MX Engines | www.truckinginfo.com

For us who see the marketplace as moving slowly from 15 to 13 Liter engines, some folks prove us wrong. There is always “the rest of the story” adding fuel to the fire, which here has to do with service.

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