GLG News by Mr. Jay Thompson, President and General Manager
GLG News is now G+ Insights
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G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.
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Leading Indicator - Truck Registration Numbers “Falling” In Line With Recent “Lower” Predictions
November 21, 2008
Polk: Truck Registrations for September Lowest Since February 2003 | www.truckinginfo.com
Truck registrations are important to contrast against freight predictions for planning purposes by shippers, transport companies, industry suppliers, investors and other interested parties. These numbers tell how the trucking companies are planning for the near future. Last month, we authored an article looking at vastly lowered truck build forecasts. This is a look at reality…
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November 19, 2008
New Global Trucking and Logistics Company Index | seekingalpha.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 are down about 40% from a year ago. The Dow Transports are down 25%. In spite of this, there are some transport companies doing OK as noted in the source article - and deserve some comments as to why - and cautions….
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Mexico Cross-Border Operations Save Costs & Are Safe - But Don’t Let Facts Get Into The Way
November 18, 2008
Independent Panel Finds Border Project Safe But Statistically Inadequate | www.truckinginfo.com
The Mexican cross-border pilot program is slipping into nowhere land - and it will continue to cost us money. Nobody says much about the program with our number one trading partner - Canada. They certainly do about our number two partner - Mexico. But it is not about business - it’s politics!
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Auxiliary Power Units Not Providing Energy Savings Or Emissions Reductions As Sold
November 6, 2008
Idle Reduction Technology Research Sheds Light on APU Decisions | www.truckinginfo.com
Truck idling versus Auxiliary Power Unit (APU) Return-On-Investment (ROI) got some real and negative feedback in a recently completed North Carolina State University / Volvo Truck EPA-funded study. Bottom-line is that the ROI is tough at best and from the study: “Previous avoided fuel use rates and emissions benefits from APUs may be optimistic.”
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Food Versus Fuel Issue Turning Grain Farmers’ Numbers Ugly, Too
October 31, 2008
Reviewing biofuel policies and subsidies | www.fao.org
The food, energy and Biofuels industries all heavily depend on feedstock. I agree with colleagues Mr. Moser and Mr. Timpano regarding food versus fuel, future feedstock’s, food security and sugar cane use for ethanol. After recently attending a Purdue (my alma mater) meeting wearing my Zenergy Bio Fuel - switchgrass, miscanthus & Jatropha plantations - and old farmers hat, the numbers that were shared paint a sobering picture looking ahead. Government representatives and politician’s who drive the policies are definately not business people.
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'08-'09-'10 Truck Build Numbers Being Adjusted Way Down
October 24, 2008
FTR Conference Call: Bad News Bears | www.truckinginfo.com
The forecast models used by the industry to predict equipment sales needs a readjustment. The forecasting models included diesel prices, metal prices, industrial production, manufacturer orders and personal income / spending, but they had not used at least one major factor - financing availability - until now. While it is not an active parameter in most models, look for it to be added (and played with) - ASAP!
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GreatWide Logistics Using Chapter 11 To Shed Debt
October 22, 2008
Greatwide Logistics, Texas Trucker, Files Bankruptcy | www.bloomberg.com
How quick can one get in and out of a Chapter 11 filing? Pretty quickly if one has their ducks lined up. It does say something about trying to roll up a bunch of companies, carrying a lot of debt - and then being faced with a trying marketplace.
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Sterling Trucks Will Be No More - What Does It Mean?
October 22, 2008
Daimler slams door on saving Sterling | lfpress.ca
Daimler Trucks North America (DTNA) has made decision to eliminate their Sterling brand. This has some interesting implications, but it means little - in the big scheme of things.
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Trucking Is Becoming Greener - But It’s More Than Just About Emissions Mandates
October 13, 2008
Are emissions-reducing strategies working? | fleetowner.com
The “Green” movement in the trucking industry should be an evolution, following normal equipment life-cycles. Mandates for new equipment have ended up being expensive with retrofits even moreso. The way to think about trucking companies wanting to become more green - is to think about it in terms of how we do it on a personal level with our cars, pickups, etc. We all want to do our part, but also want it to be cost effective, fair and make sense.
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Some Shippers / Planners / Carriers Are Making Changes In Supply-Chain To Economize
October 10, 2008
Slimmer Packages Mean Slimmer Profits for Truckers | www.businessweek.com
New logistics, load planning and other supply-chain approaches are being taken to lower cost. Those doing it the same old way are being squeezed. As our colleague Mr. Schultz notes, freight has slowed and trucking company failures continue. Load makeup is changing and some are actively addressing it. Then there is all of the supply-chain safety and security issues on the table - and being green, too.
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Was There A Truck Sales Bubble? It’s Been Interesting Since Deregulation - So What’s Next?
October 6, 2008
Drop in orders stuns truckmakers | us.ft.com
As per the referenced article, new truck orders worldwide (not just in the US) are falling - signaling a global slowdown. The forecasting models are being updated because the financing wildcard was not traditionally seen as a big factor - but with what? Freight, Fuel and Financing are the intertwined issues that have contributed to the past swings - along with EU / US Government regulations. Are we heading into a new (old) era? Probably for some.
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LA / Long Beach Port Program Report From The Real World - No Issues, But Concern...
October 3, 2008
Ports ready to enforce clean-trucks plan | www.joc.com
The contentious LA / Long Beach Emissions programs have started without disruption. My colleague Mr. Schultz gives a good overview of the program, litigation, etc, so I’ll offer some numbers and a few comments and about what is happening on the ground today.
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August Big Truck Sales Down 23% Over Last Year - Major Supplier Accuride Takes Drastic Action
September 29, 2008
Accuride plans 392 job cuts after CEO resigns | www.wthr.com
A major industry supplier is back in trouble - and is an indicator of things to come. Accuride CEO John Murphy has resigned after 11 months at the helm. It shows how one plans for swings and also shows the importance of parts and service sales in smoothing them out.
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September 22, 2008
EDITORIAL: Too little, too late | www.nola.com
The Federal Government intervening in the investment world makes the monumental work done in New Orleans before and after Katrina look like small potatoes. Successful people and businesses focus on what they are good at. The devil is in the details on how it gets done, but government in action can be seen in both New Orleans’ evacuations. After the recent Gustav SNAFU compared to Texas’ Rita and now Ike, the issues within an asset-light model come to light. Too many Bosses in the chain - again.
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Wall St. Problems Already Creating Real Issues For Trucking Companies & Industry Suppliers
September 19, 2008
ATA economist: circumstances of current crisis make impact on trucking hard to predict | www.thetrucker.com
American Trucking Associations (ATA) economist Bob Costello says in the referenced article that the financial turmoil in the marketplace is not a variable in their model today - making it difficult to make predictions for the trucking marketplace. While much of their information is data driven, ours is more from addressing requests and problems - and then making predictions from surveys of small trucking companies. Our leading indicators include shipper credit / payables, trucking company financing, dealer sales outlook and input from traditional banks.
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New Truck Sales & Credit Markets Follow Same Trends - It’s Tough!
September 12, 2008
Through the Turmoil | fleetowner.com
Trucking equipment financing is following that of auto-financiers - again. It has been disappearing! As predicted in the referenced article (and by this writer) from a year ago, it’s here! Without readily available financing for trucks and trailers, what does that mean for new sales for the next few years? Turmoil…
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Where Do Diesel Fuel Prices Need To Be To Stabilize Trucking Company Failure Rates?
September 10, 2008
Diesel prices: industry experts comment on impact of high oil prices on logistics | www.logisticsmgmt.com
With falling diesel fuel prices, what does that mean for trucking failure rates? Additionally, at what fuel price should we see the numbers settle down?
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IdleAire Getting A Fresh Breath Of Air - But What Has Changed? The Environment….
September 4, 2008
IdleAire Purchased | fleetowner.com
IdleAire and its “ATE designation” has been purchased by a group including Airlie Group, Kenmont Investments Management, SV Special Situations Fund, Whitebox Advisors, Wayzata Investment Partners and Wilfrid Aubrey, LLC. Their transition to a new management team is being handled by CGR Partners. The basic premise of the business, investment required and competition will make for a rougher road ahead.
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September 2, 2008
DEF infrastructure in good shape | fleetowner.com
One of the often-cited risks in implementation of Selective Catalyst Reduction (SCR) technology has been Diesel Engine Fluid (DEF) - a.k.a. Urea - availability. That has been covered in past GLG articles - and continues to move along better than expected. The next major issues include whether truck-buyers will “pre-buy” current technology in 2009, wait until SCR engines are available, take the Navistar EGR new engine model approach or a mix thereof. However, the real elephant in the room for the majority of the marketplace is financing.
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August 29, 2008
Two Major Fleets to Work Drayage at LA Port | www.truckinginfo.com
The keys to success in the logistics chain are relationships, information technology, operational productivity and managing costs. The dray cost structure is being pressured with not only the 25%+ ($35 container plus $15 infrastructure) surcharge to fund those programs, but also with security (TWIC) mandates, productivity technology, fuel cost, driver costs and more expensive trucks to do it. There are three areas of opportunity worth discussing that major fleets can address - freight, flow and equipment. The pending ATA legal action will slow all this, but that is a separate missive. This posting was developed with GLG Leader Stan McWilliams - looking at the multiple opportunities for fleets.
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