Mr. Jeff Moser

President, West Branch LLC


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GLG News by Mr. Jeff Moser, President

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Dow's Hand is Forced Even Without Paulson

February 9, 2009

Paulson urges Dow to close Rohm and Haas deal | money.cnn.com

Dow must pursue all available avenues to address its cash shortfall - Paulson's 'advice' is taken with a healthy grain of salt but hits close to home.

Dow in cash flow crisis mode

February 5, 2009

Dow board would consider dividend cut: CEO | www.reuters.com

With major debt loads hovering over Dow's balance sheet and no buyer in sight for the basics portfolio Dow must explore every possible avenue for cash flow improvement.  Investors can no longer look to the dividend yield as a prop for the stock price as Dow's investment ratings remain in jeopardy.

Dow Facing Doomsday over ROH?

February 5, 2009

Dow says Rohm agreement not binding at this point | www.reuters.com

Dow has already conceded that they may face default on key lending terms if they are forced to close the ROH deal as signed.  Other draconian implications loom in the background as CEO Liveris struggles to renegotiate two huge deals.

Flush with cash, Oil and Gas producers may drive petrochem M&A

February 4, 2009

Hard times mean hard-nosed M&A for those with cash | www.reuters.com

With petrochemical producers suffering through the worst demand slump in a quarter century their stock prices reflect a long term value play.  Add in synergies from lower cost feedstocks and vertical integration with major oil and gas producers may drive M&A in this sector.

Green and Mean - Obama turns Climate dogs loose on Automakers

January 26, 2009

Obama to let states set auto emission rules | www.cnn.com

The Clean Air Act of 1970 and its 1990 amendments have always given California authority to set tighter tailpipe emission standards than the rest of the country, but not to mandate better fuel economy.  Now, under the guise of CO2 emissions, Obama's administration is set to allow just that.

Dow scrambling to pull of ROH deal

January 23, 2009

Dow-Rohm & Haas deal nears FTC approval | uk.reuters.com

The aborted Kuwaiti JV leaves Dow over $7 Billion short in cash needed to finance ROH takeover.  CEO Liveris must now quickly find a partner or buyer for the basics businesses.

Cummins De-Integrating to Focus on Value Core

January 23, 2009

Cummins Emissions to Partner with Emcon, Close Wisconsin Plant | www.truckinginfo.com

Cummins' announcement to close their WI emissions plant is reflects an ill-advised entry into non-core supply chain segments.

Rohm and Haas weathering the storm

January 21, 2009

UPDATE 1-Rohm and Haas plans to cut 900 jobs | www.reuters.com

While ROH waits for Dow to close the deal they must conduct business as usual and maintain ongoing operations as a separate entity.

Food or Fuel - Are Biodiesel Incentives Sustainable?

January 21, 2009

IRS Proposes Biodiesel Tax Incentive | www.irs.gov

Increased demand for biofuel feedstocks will keep prices higher for food crops and may price these fuels out of the market.

The 'D-Word' - Will Dioxin Scare Disrupt Trucking's 2010 SCR Plans?

January 16, 2009

Cummins has full confidence in its SCR | fleetowner.com

Many engine OEMs plan to use SCR catalysts for EPA 2010 NOx compliance.  Copper bearing SCR formulations are popular but Copper is known to promote Dioxin formation under certain conditions.  The industry and EPA must come to agreement on approval of these SCR formulations.

Control Freaks - Can Dow let go?

January 9, 2009

Kuwait to Counter any Dow Legal Action | www.reuters.com

Dow Chemical's aborted JV with Kuwait would have raised over $7 Billion for a 50% stake of existing basics portfolio.  Now that Dow scrambles to fill that hole it may have to cede control of any JV or sell the businesses outright.

How Now, Dow?

January 6, 2009

Dow to pursue legal options against Kuwait | money.cnn.com

Dow Chemical must bridge a $7 Billion gap to pay for Rohm & Haas now that the Kuwaitis have bailed out of the proposed JV.  With business valuations sharply lower today Dow may have to assume significant additional debt in order to close the R&H acquisition. 

Dow M&A: Sound Strategy or CEO Hubris?

December 18, 2008

Dow Chemical: Cutting Jobs Instead of the Merger Price | blogs.wsj.com

Dow CEO Andrew Liveris bet the future of the entire company on his 2-stage M&A based transformation:  Sell commodity businesses into a Kuwaiti JV and use the proceeds to buy Rohm & Haas.  Priced at obsolete valuations both of these deals now seem questionable.  Any fallout could cost Dow and Liveris dearly. 

Will the Sun Set on New Polysilicon Investments?

December 17, 2008

Dow Corning, Hemlock To Invest Up To $3 Billion In Polysilicon Growth | money.cnn.com

Obama's call for significant new renewable energy generation may drive the need for more solar / PV capacity.   Dow Corning and Hemlock may be relying on this prospect to pay back their $3 Billion polysilicon investment.

Gulf to Gulf - US Petrochemical industry taking flight?

December 11, 2008

Dow Chemical to cut 5000 jobs | money.cnn.com

Cheaper feedstocks and new ethylene capacity in the Middle East have threatened the critical mass of US petrochemical infrastructure.  Redundant plants may be permanently closed as new production grows offshore.

Green Energy needs subsidies to compete

December 10, 2008

Alternative energy ideas power down | www.delawareonline.com

Wind and solar power are effective options for satisfying marginal generating demand during peak consumption periods.  If conventional generating capacity is sufficient then the 'Green' alternatives become economically disadvantaged.

Will Green Government Suffocate Trucking?

November 26, 2008

Incentivise the transport industry to cut emissions | www.publicservice.co.uk

European nations have used taxes and tolls to 'optimize' truck freight tonnage and reduce pollution and greenhouse gas emissions.  With an aggressive environmental agenda the new US government may seek to harmonize domestic standards with the Europeans. 

Petrochem Giants in Crisis Mode

November 20, 2008

BASF Cuts Profit Goal, to Idle Plants as Orders Drop | www.bloomberg.com

Capacity shutdowns by Dow and BASF will pressure smaller players to rationalize their own operations.  If liquidity is insufficient to weather an extended downturn consolidation of global capacity is likely; voluntary or not. 

Consumers pinched as petrochem prices hold firm

November 13, 2008

Oil falls but not prices of petro-based consumer goods | www.detnews.com

Falling oil prices have not led to price relief from major chemical and plastics producers.  Consumers will continue to see higher prices on everyday goods from diapers to toothpaste and toilet paper.

Navistar walking the EGR tightrope for 2010

November 11, 2008

Making EGR-only work for 2010 | fleetowner.com

Heavy Duty diesel truck engines must meet stringent EPA NOx emissions standards in 2010.  Solutions include SCR catalysts and/or high EGR rates.  The tradeoffs in performance and fuel economy may define market share among the major engine makers.

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