GLG News by Mr. Jim Belfiore, President
GLG News is now G+ Insights
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G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.
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The Reset, the FHA's Role, and Our Neighbors
August 23, 2007
How FHA Could Help Borrowers | online.wsj.com
The FHA plan discussed in this article puts the burden of poor individual and lender decisions on the government and taxpayers, perhaps not a burden many of us believe we should be required to bear. However, considering the magnitude and the possible effect on the markets if the 2.2 million resets are remotely similar to my neighbor’s resetting rate, we might be thankful if the program is adopted in coming weeks.
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The Mortgage Saga and What to Expect
August 7, 2007
American Home Mortgage Corp. files for bankruptcy protection | www.courierpress.com
Tightening lending requirements of remaining players and higher home loan rates will push the housing demand lower, adding further downward pressure to home prices and increasing the likelihood of Fed intervention.
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July 26, 2007
Housing Market to Weaken Even Further as Mortgage Industry Takes Cure | online.wsj.com
Horton's drop in net new home orders is alarming, given that the builder is the low price leader. How will they alter their strategy to counter current conditions?
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June 6, 2007
Housing Market to Weaken Even Further as Mortgage Industry Takes Cure | online.wsj.com
Lennar is taking a "build through it" approach in the Phoenix metro area. Depending on your angle, you may or may not think the approach is a good one.
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May 8, 2007
Lenders pull back, buyers lose dream of home | www.azcentral.com
To date, lender tightening news has primarily been directed to the business world- not the consumer. This article, front page news written for Joe Consumer, is different. It talks of buyer dreams being shattered and one builder’s potential loss in sales being 10% in 2007.
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The Direction of the Housing Tide and Tightening Credit
March 28, 2007
New-Home Sale Drop Fuels Housing Jitters | online.wsj.com
Subprime lending may be putting the breaks on recent positive trends in the Phoenix housing market.
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What is the Value of Your Reading Material
March 7, 2007
Valley's housing market shows more of a pulse | www.azcentral.com
The most recent article on speculative homes published in The Arizona Republic reports 12,000 to 15,000 units are sitting on the market - a drastic change from the 25,000 units reported by the same source just 3 months ago. Do you trust the source of your information?
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March 6, 2007
Mortgage Defaults Start to Spread | online.wsj.com
Mortgage defaults and tightening lending standards should be on the minds of those active in the home building industry. Not only are subprime lenders struggling, Alt-A mortgage providers are experiencing higher than expected default rates.
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Mr. Toll's Optimism turns Pessimistic: But is he Right?
February 28, 2007
Toll Brothers Net Falls 67%; Outlook is Cut | online.wsj.com
Last week, Toll Brothers reported a drop in quarterly profit from the same period last year. Perhaps more startling than the drop were comments from highly respected CEO Robert Toll. Wall Street’s housing analysts eagerly anticipate Mr. Toll’s regular comments, which are usually on target. Surprisingly, his comments turned from clearly optimistic (earlier in the month) to somewhat pessimistic last week. Which way is the market headed?
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Horton's Early 2007 Phoenix Strategy: Volume?
February 20, 2007
D.R. Horton Orders Tumble 23% | online.wsj.com
Horton has primarily catered to entry-level homebuilders in the Phoenix metro area. The builder has responded to current market conditions with even lower pricing than it previously had offered.
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An Emerging Risk in Emerging Markets
February 16, 2007
Home Lenders Pare Risky Loans | online.wsj.com
Subprime loans have become popular on the fringe areas of Phoenix. Tightening subprime standards poses a threat to the market recovery.
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January 31, 2007
New Homes Sales: Back from the Dead? | www.cnnmoney.com
Belfiore Real Estate Consulting data suggests the optmism created with the release of today's government data is not warranted. The data is not refelctive of conditions in the Phoenix metro area.
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January 29, 2007
Existing-Home Sales Plunge But Pace Is Expected to Ease | online.wsj.com
The "plunge" in resale home sales should not come as a surprise to anyone. Resales are simply overpriced.
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January 26, 2007
New homes in the Valley | arizonarepublic.com
The article suggests new home building has "hit bottom" in metro Phoenix. Regardless of what is meant by "hit bottom", the new home market is at least a few months from hitting bottom.
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Is the Phoenix Metro Area Market Making a Turn?
January 26, 2007
Housing Glut Gives Buyers Upper Hand | online.wsj.com
Recent survey data suggests the market may have turned a corner. Speculative supply appears to be retreating and pricing should soon stabilize.
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Long-Term Population Growth will Support Housing Market
December 28, 2006
Arizona growth Fastest in U.S. | www.arizonarepublic.com
Arizona has now surpassed Nevada as the fastest growing state in the country. This growth will continue and eventually turn current residential market conditions around.
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Mortgage Rate Changes are Good News for Phoenix
December 11, 2006
Home-Mortgage Rates Decline | online.wsj.com
Lower mortgage rates support Belfiore Real Estate Consulting forecasts that inventory and prices will stabilize in mid- 2007.
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Data and Methodology are Off; Spec Inventory at Less than 10,000 Units
December 7, 2006
With 25,000 spec homes, now may be the time to buy | arizonarepublic.com
The figures reported in the publication are far from accurate. Our research puts the spec figure closer to 10,000 units.
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A Forecast to Take to the Bank
November 27, 2006
Why the Housing Forecast is Mixed | online.wsj.com
Everyone has an opinion on when the housing market will hit bottom and rebound. We at Belfiore Real Estate Consulting believe you only need to understand one concept and follow one stat to predict the bottom of the residential market today.
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The Upside in Today's Cancellations
November 14, 2006
The New Word in Home Sales: 'Cancelled' | online.wsj.com
Home builders are struggling with high cancellation rates and will likely continue to in the near-future. There is an upside to the cancellations, though. Many buyers are cancelling due to fear- fear that will dissipate at some point.
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