Mr. Jim Belfiore

GLG News by Mr. Jim Belfiore, President

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

The Heat Should be Hotter

November 6, 2006

Analysis of:Some Builders Feel Heat From Holders, Lenders | online.wsj.com

Some builders seem to be feeding the downward trend in the residential real estate market.  You should demand the builder lay out a well-thought plan for turning around its business.

Inventory of New Homes is Indeed Driving Prices Down

November 2, 2006

Analysis of:Rising Inventory of Unsold Homes May Put More Pressure on Prices | online.wsj.com

Like most major U.S. metropolitan areas, the Phoenix area is indeed struggling with high levels of inventory, and thus declining prices. Current market conditions reflect a trend of rising inventories, increasing incentives, and high cancelation rates, which are likely to continue through the next several months.  Analysts shouldn't expect conditions to change soon.
 

A More Complete Analysis of Current Market Conditions

November 2, 2006

Analysis of:Prices of Houses Slip Again | www.azcentral.com

While the Arizona Republic quotes an economist from a respected local consulting firm and a housing analyst from Arizona State University, its Tuesday, September 13th "Prices of houses slip again" article misses the mark. As is the case all too often with newspaper and magazine articles, the data presented is limited, and the conclusions drawn from the data are incorrect.

Pressure will push Housing Prices Further South

November 1, 2006

Analysis of:Housing Decline Sparks Slowdown in Construction | online.wsj.com

As speculative new housing supply continues to increase and many builders face the pressure of year-end reporting, prices will be forced further downward.

Phoenix: Today's Market and Tomorrow

October 31, 2006

Analysis of:Home Prices Keep Sliding; Buyers Sit Tight | online.wsj.com

This review is a republication of Belfiore Real Estate Consulting's October 2, 2006 - KnowledgeBase Current and Future Market Conditions Insight Publication.  The article is lengthy with information on the metro area and one of four metro area regions.

Option Financing the most Interesting Story to Follow

October 27, 2006

Analysis of:Cooldown Catching up with Builders | www.azcentral.com

Those following home builders and the effect of option contract defaults should watch closely during the next few weeks.  Default notices are eminent for some of the big builders.

Phoenix Division Will Not Help Centex

October 16, 2006

Analysis of:Earnings Estimate Is Slashed As Home Orders Drop 28% | online.wsj.com

Centex Corporation's Phoenix division has struggled for years and will likely continue to struggle.  Don't depend on the builder's Phoenix division to boost overall earnings for the company. 

Option Disclosures are Forthcoming

October 9, 2006

Analysis of:Housing's Hidden Headache | online.barrons.com

Ms. Doherty has written an article that highlights a little understood type of financing that has great implications for those that own, are considering purchasing, or follow home builder stocks.

Sales / Price Decline Trend will Continue

October 9, 2006

Analysis of:Existing-Home Sales Decline As Prices Fall, Inventories Rise | online.wsj.com

Existing home sales, as the data reflects, continue to drop, and future release will show further drops. Price decreases will become more apparent and significant during the next 3 months.  Inventory changes will vary by region, based on selling seasons.

Data isn't Needed to Follow Housing Starts in Coming Months

October 6, 2006

Analysis of:Producer Prices, Housing Starts Fall, Suggesting Fed Will Keep Rates Flat | online.wsj.com

The Commerce Department's housing start figures are not necessary for those wondering which direction starts were headed in August, or even where they have been headed in September.  Sales continued to cool and builders continued to slow starts.

Lennar's Flawed Strategy

September 28, 2006

Analysis of:Lennar Cuts Earnings Forecasts On Pullback in Housing Market | online.wsj.com

Lennar's cost cutting is selling homes but its overall market strategy is dragging the entire market down.  The highly touted even-flow process Lennar is employing works when market conditions are stable or strengthening, but benefits are limited during periods of declining conditions.

Anticipate Continued Trend

September 27, 2006

Analysis of:Existing-Home Sales Keep Falling | online.wsj.com

Existing home sales, as the data reflects, continue to drop, and future release will show further drops.  Price decreases will become more apparent and significant during the next 3 months.

DMB's Presence as Much about Condo Sales as Retailer Sign-Ons

September 15, 2006

Analysis of:High-End Property Takes Stage at Fashion Week | online.wsj.com

While the condo craze hit the Phoenix metro area a couple of years ago as it did other largely suburban markets, the current housing slowdown must have DMB, and others planning large, upscale, mixed-use projects in the area, secretly wondering whether their bet on the condo market was wise.

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