Mr. John Burns

GLG News by Mr. John Burns, President

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Shadow Lot Supply

January 26, 2011

Analysis of:Myriad Licenses Rights to Pancreatic Cancer Gene Patents | councils.glgroup.com

Many of the public builders don’t need to buy lots in 2011, and we think it will be a relatively quiet year for land acquisition.

Shadow Inventory Stepping into the Light

September 17, 2010

Analysis of:Shadow Inventory Stepping into the Light | realestateconsulting.com

The Loan Modification programs were certainly successful in delaying the inevitable – foreclosure. There are now approximately 2.5 million foreclosures in process, and another 2.5 million mortgages that are 90+ days delinquent. These numbers will trend down, while REO (currently 562,000 bank-owned homes) and short sales will trend up.

62% Homeownership on the Horizon

August 31, 2010

Analysis of:62% Homeownership on the Horizon | realestateconsulting.com

Our recent experiences in D.C. confirm that homeownership is clearly a value that is promoted by most politicians. They are in for a rude awakening, however, and a legacy that they will not be proud of. 8 million homeowners are currently not paying their mortgage, and we believe 6 million of them will lose their home to the bank in the next 2 years. This will reduce the homeownership rate to 62%.

GSEs to Lose Tens of Millions Tomorrow

August 25, 2010

Analysis of:GSEs to Lose Tens of Millions Tomorrow | realestateconsulting.com

While officials are gearing up for tomorrow's (8/17/10) meeting on GSE reform, the GSEs are losing millions of dollars every hour. Why? Because home prices are falling again. Our solution is the following:1) Create an Apartment REIT2) Loans to Landlords3) Keep Mortgage Liquidity Flowing

The Beginning of the Recovery

July 14, 2010

Analysis of:The Beginning of the Recovery | www.realestateconsulting.com

In March 2008, we rolled out an educational video on housing cycles that ended with, “Remember that every down cycle is the beginning of the next up cycle.” We believe we are currently at "The Bottom" heading into "The Beginning" of the next housing cycle.

Home Price Data is Very Misleading

June 30, 2010

Analysis of:Home Price Data is Very Misleading | www.realestateconsulting.com

June 28, 2010There are great home price tools today to help you with the decision you are making. However, Case Shiller (CS) and median prices are not the right ones.Executive decision makers want to know whether prices are trending up or down, and that question has never been harder to answer. When forced to answer the question, we say that most home prices are reverting to 2003 prices – some areas have overcorrected and some have not fully corrected.

Short Sales Are About to Increase

October 5, 2009

Analysis of:Short Sales: A Fraying Lifeline for Homeowners | www.businessweek.com

Treasury is announcing new terms that they hope will encourage more short-sales. These transactions have not been very effective in the past, and while this is probably not going to be a game changer, it’s wise to expect the incentives could spur some level of increase in short sales.

Thank You, Uncle Sam

September 2, 2009

Analysis of:Hope can fuel bulls' charge as stocks rally despite worries | www.usatoday.com

We believe that the recovery will be W-shaped and that April was only a false bottom. Our estimate is that there will be a slowing beginning in December, and that we will hit the true bottom in summer of 2010.

Policy Makers, CEOs and Investors Beware

August 26, 2009

Analysis of:1. Mortgage Rates to Benefit from Stabilized Home Prices, Jumbo Mortgage Rates in Particular | www.examiner.com

The emergence of home price stabilization is spotty and should not be over-simplified. It’s important to look at the underlying indicators to see where stabilization is actually taking place.

Has Housing Construction Really Bottomed?

August 26, 2009

Analysis of:U.S. Economy: Housing Starts Gain to Seven-Month High (Update1) | www.bloomberg.com

The recent good news in housing starts is based on seasonally adjusted data, which can fluctuate and affect solid conclusions. Non-seasonally adjusted data across a 12-month period is a more stable reflection of construction activity.

Are Consumers Paying Down Debt?

October 17, 2008

Analysis of:Consumers Pay Down Debt For First Time In 10 Years | www.marketwatch.com

Consumer borrowing has decreased for the first time in over 10 years as outstanding revolving and non-revolving credit fell in August.  This may be an indication that Americans are pulling back on spending as the financial and housing markets continue to deteriorate. 

Price Corrections Are Not As Bad As Reported

June 25, 2008

Analysis of:Home Prices Continue Sharp Descent | money.cnn.com

Home prices have indeed experienced significant corrections.  However, some reports of price reductions may be exaggerated due to innacurate methodology. 

Economic Fundamentals Slipping Away

April 9, 2008

Analysis of:Are we or aren't we in a recession? | www.boston.com

Several national housing market indicators have been deteriorating at historically high rates in the last several months.  The downward trend of these indicators points to a national recession.

LOCAL MARKET KNOWLEDGE FOR BUILDERS

August 7, 2007

Analysis of:No Housing Turnaround for Two Years? | www.businessweek.com

1. Favorite First-to-Turn-Around Markets 2. Favorite Long-Term Markets 3. Favorite Market After Housing Bottoms 4. Favorite Fairly Priced, Highly Competitive Markets

Our Favorite Markets

July 30, 2007

Analysis of:No Housing Turnaround for Two Years? | www.businessweek.com

Favorite First-to-Turn-Around Markets Favorite Long-Term Markets Favorite Market After Housing Bottoms Favorite Fairly Priced, Highly Competitive Markets

Resale Home Prices Are Likely to Fall in Many Markets

June 28, 2007

Analysis of:New-home sales continue decline | www.chicagotribune.com

Why so many markets? Why so much in some markets? Why so little in other markets?

Message to Fed: Housing is Falling Much Faster than Reported

May 11, 2007

Analysis of:Home sales: Worst drop in 18 years | money.cnn.com

Housing is Falling Much Faster than Reported

Builder Confidence

March 27, 2007

Analysis of:Builder Confidence Remains Low, Especially in the Midwest | www.marketwatch.com

 

The NAHB's monthly survey of home building communities trended down again this month, after increasing over the last several months. The beleaguered Midwest showed some improvement, but remained that worst region in the country. The West also improved slightly this month.

Nationally, the Housing Market Index – a measure of builder confidence through new home sales and traffic in comparison to expectations – reversed recent trends by falling in March. The national index had been making a steady comeback in recent months since reaching a 15-year low in September of last year.

On a regional basis, builder confidence in the Midwest, which had declined to the lowest level of all regions, is making the strongest comeback. The West region has only started to turn around this year. The South and the Northeast are now the highest among the four regions, but declined in March, dragging down the national average.

Vacancy Glut Will Prolong the Recovery

March 26, 2007

Analysis of:Vacancy Glut Will Prolong the Recovery | www.realestatejournal.com

A glut of 800,000 excess vacant homes will prolong the recovery for approximately one year. The recent surge in resale listings and completed new homes offered for sale includes a record level of unoccupied homes. The surge is both the result of investor activity earlier this decade as well as the result of new home sales cancellations. Approximately 2.1 million of the homes offered for sale today are vacant. The average over the last 10 years has been 1.3 million vacant homes for sale. We expect more vacant homes to be put up for sale in 2007 because all categories of vacancy have risen significantly in the last few years. With only 6 - 7 million new and resale homes expected to be sold this year, we believe it will take about one year for the excess vacancy to return to normal. In certain tertiary markets, the excess supply will probably linger for years.

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