Dr. John Kilpatrick

GLG News by Dr. John Kilpatrick, Chief Executive Officer

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Better organizations actually stand to benefit

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:World respected property organisation falls victim to the economic downturn | www.propertywire.com

RICS and other similar organizations are actually in a position to benefit from the current restructuring, if they use this opportunity wisely.

Landmark Preservation has been good business in other cities

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Challenge to Landmark Law Worries Preservationists | www.nytimes.com

1.  The "devils in the details" -- many cities have excellent landmark preservation ordinances which are win-win for developers and property owners. 2.  Academic and appraisal studies consistently show well-written preservation ordinances actually enhance value in protected neighborhoods.

Partial ownership is not a cure-all

March 30, 2009

Analysis of:Developers reconsider partial ownership model | www.iht.com

Vacation or second-home partial ownership makes great sense in very high amenity locations, such as ski-slopes or high-demand beaches.  However, the model certainly doesn't work well in other situations.

Not your mother and father's homebuilder

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Toll Bros. 1Q Loss Narrows, Outlook Unclear | www.smartmoney.com

1)  Nation's largest homebuilders are very different entities from two decades ago. 2)  The real question is what they will look like in the years after this recession.

Why this housing recession is a bit different

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Pending home sales hit record low | money.cnn.com

1.  Prior post-war recessions were not accompanied by nominal housing price declines 2.  This leads to fewer homes on the market -- in many cases due to "paper" holding losses on homes that otherwise would transact. 2.  There is a massive liquidity preference at work, with households paying down debt and retaining cash.

The Devil's in the Details

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Citi: Mortgage break to unemployed | money.cnn.com

1.  Is this a real interest rate reduction -- either temporary or permanent -- or a big negative amortization? 2.  How will this affect homeowners credit reports and ratings? 3.  Does this apply only to CITI-owned mortgages, or also to mortgages serviced by CITI but owned by institutions and other investors?

Shades of the S&L Crisis

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Property investors returning to second homes market as prices fall | www.propertywire.com

1.  During the S&L Crisis, 2nd home sales were hit hard, particularly in the time-share market.  2.  A contributing factor was lack of permanent financing. 3.  Following the crisis, when mortgage markets rebounded, 2nd home sales rebounded as well.

Mark-to-Market Rules Confuse the Issues

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Fannie, Freddie to fund part of plan | money.cnn.com

Fannie and Freddie hold mortgages, which in turn are financed by bond issuances.  With these subsidies, Fan/Fred will actually save a lot of dead-weight foreclosure costs. Unfortunately, Mark-to-Market Rules put Fan/Fred in a strange accounting trade-off.

Fixing the market = Flying an airplane

March 9, 2009

Analysis of:Who won't be helped by housing fix | money.cnn.com

This article looks at the recovery plan from the homeowner perspective.  Unfortunately, that's the wrong way to look at it.

Demand versus Supply

October 30, 2008

Analysis of:Commercial-real-estate bust is coming, report warns | www.investmentnews.com

The current commercial real estate cycle is in some ways similar to what followed the 1986 Tax Reform Act, when the death of accelerated write-offs put many deals under water.  This down-cycle is similarly driven by the death of easy credit.  The difference today is in property fundamentals.  Some sectors -- primarily retail and hotel -- may be hurt harder than others.  However, there is little evidence that the office sector, industrial/warehouse, or apartments are overbuilt.  As a result, the commercial market should stay fundamentally sound.  While many private investors and even some funds are dumping real estate to satisfy financing problems, most of the institutional real estate is in healthy hands (pension plans, etc.).  The one black hole is raw land bought for development.  Often this has been heavily financed with relatively short-term money.  Developers and builders are dumping, usually at attractive prices.

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