Mr. Kevin Boyle

Consultant, KEVIN L BOYLE

GLG News by Mr. Kevin Boyle, Consultant

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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The Independent Petrochemical Producers Are Ready

January 21, 2009

Analysis of:LBO Burden May Force Ineos, Georgia Gulf Bankruptcy (Update2) | www.bloomberg.com

Production activity in petrochemicals appears to be restarting. Ineos, LyondellBasell, and Georgia Gulf have optimized their operations.

A Smart Move by Lyondell

January 16, 2009

Analysis of:Equistar to reopen La Porte olefins plant | houston.bizjournals.com

Lyondell is using the flexibility of their ethylene production system to optimize their costs.

Some Good News for Petrochemicals

January 15, 2009

Analysis of:CPC to Restart No. 4 Naphtha Cracker as Market Demand Improves | www.bloomberg.com

Restarting of this cracker in Taiwan is an indication of improved profitability in ethylene, and maybe improving demand.

“The worst I’ve ever seen!,” in the Petrochemical Market

December 20, 2008

Analysis of:Equistar to Temporarily Idle Second Olefins Unit | www.marketwatch.com

The shuttering of Lyondell's and Westlake's ethylene facilities brings operable capacity to about 70% of nameplate, and utilization rates below 65%. By closing Chocolate Bayou, Lyondell most likely, stands to improve their net cash flow.

Who Might Buy Sunoco Chemicals?

December 17, 2008

Analysis of:US Sunoco puts chemicals business up for sale | www.icis.com

Sunoco Chemicals is the largest US producer of phenol and a significant producer of polypropylene. These are very large businesses in the trough of a downturn. Which companies might have the foresight to entertain this kind of acquisition?

Plastic Price Weaknesses Due to Demand, Not Cheap Supply

October 8, 2008

Analysis of:Sharp drop in prices of imported Polyethylene into Europe (6-10-2008) | www.plastemart.com

Polymer prices are beginning to fall in Europe with supply on its way from the Middle East. However, it is the weak demand driving down prices, not the cheap supply from new Middle Eastern plants.

Investing in the Chemical Industry

September 10, 2008

Analysis of:As Buyout Bust Turns Bitter, A Major Deal Lands in Court | online.wsj.com

Private investment firms have supported dynamic growth in the chemical industry.

The Petrochemical Industry Returns to Profitability!!!

August 8, 2008

Analysis of:EVENING SNAPSHOT - Americas Markets Summary | www.icis.com

Ethylene producers have returned to profitability. While ethylene prices are dropping quickly, feedstock prices are dropping faster. While heavy feedstock cracking may still be negative, the overall industry (median margins) are back in positive territory. Derivative margins are quite strong.

High Costs Begin to Take Their Toll on Asian Ethylene Produce

July 2, 2008

Analysis of:Japan's Asahi Kasei to cut ethylene plant runs-Nikkei | beta.ph.news.yahoo.com

Japanese ethylene producers are beginning to reduce operating rates to adjust to market conditions. Because of their relative high costs in Asia, Japanese producers are the marginal suppliers. As they reduce production, we see the deepening of the trough hit Asia.

Housing Market Drags on PVC, Sends Caustic Soaring

June 11, 2008

Analysis of:Japan's Shin-Etsu: no sign of U.S. housing recovery | biz.yahoo.com

The hopeless housing market puts US PVC makers in a very poor position. Global PVC capacity is up, and prices and margins are falling. New capacity will toughen the market conditions on a global basis. In the meantime, falling chlorine consumption is sending caustic prices higher.

Dow Chemicals' Wake Up Call

June 2, 2008

Analysis of:Dow Chemical hikes prices 20 percent, citing energy | news.yahoo.com

Dow seeks to lead the industry to try to recover the increase in energy costs. An across the board increase makes sense if energy costs have equal effect on manufacturing costs. The move certainly gives them another opportunity to raise the awareness of energy prices on chemical producers.

Plastics Markets are Softening, But There is Hope for Plastics Economics

May 15, 2008

Analysis of:Graham Packaging net sales up 8 per cent | www.prw.com

First quarter results from converters confirm that demand for plastics packaging materials is down. The good news is that higher revenues are attributed to thier ability to increase prices. If converters have pricing power in the market, this should be good news for resin producers.

Power costs are THE key to chlor-alkali margins

April 30, 2008

Analysis of:Grangemouth firm in deal with British Energy | business.timesonline.co.uk

Energy costs are the most important input to chlor-alkali production costs. Companies who have advantaged energy contracts, like those with low cost hydroelectric power, have a significant cost advantage in the market. If Ineos can secure discounted electricity supplied to their operations in Runcorn, they pull closer to competing with hydroelectric power supplied firm, particularly in northern Europe.

Commodity chemicals won't see the same "break"

March 4, 2008

Analysis of:Fourth-Quarter Specialty Chemical Results Vary By Sector | www.chemweek.com

Specialty chemical are not as sensitive to underlying raw material costs as commodities. In addition, the structure of specialties softens the price volatility. Commodity chemicals will not enjoy these kinds of results as energy prices increase, a recession looms, and increasing global capacity dampens export prices.

Familiarity breeds contempt? No. Opportunity costs.

July 26, 2007

Analysis of:Economics 101: Oil Rises on Supply Questions | www.forbes.com

The price of oil has not yet impinged on the cost of not using it. It remain economically efficient. As inflation sets in, however, there will be less and less incremental budget to be spent on energy. This will likely fuel inflation and hurt demand.

Depends on the Price of Benzene -- at the moment

August 23, 2006

Analysis of: Mitsui Chemicals To Develop Benzene Catalyst In Singapore | www.easybourse.com

Technology is well-understood

Make/buy decision for benzene

How to view margins

August 23, 2006

Analysis of:CMAI Conference | www.cmaiglobal.com

Plastics margins

Integrated producers

Feedstock prices

Chlor-alkali and PVC margins

August 10, 2006