Dr. Michael Kowalski Ph.D.

Consultant, Michael Kowalski


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GLG News by Dr. Michael Kowalski Ph.D., Consultant

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Will the Honda Future Power train plan succeed?

January 19, 2007

Honda's Diesel-Powered Dreams | www.businessweek.com

Honda has announced a plans to introduce Diesel powered vehicles into its smaller vehicles starting in 2010. They are of the opinion that hybrids are better suited to larger vehicles and have consequently chosen to pursue diesel technology. This is about 180 degrees from the plans and actions of other automotive manufacturers. Given Hondas well-deserved reputation for power train engineering and manufacturing, it is to be expected that they will create a product with outstanding technical performance. The question to be answered is will they be able to market it to a consumer that has shown great reluctance to purchase diesel powered automobiles.

Do more Alliances represent the future of the Automotive industry?

January 8, 2007

Further consolidation expected in auto industry | www.ft.com

It seems to be a popular opinion that forming alliances will solve the problems of troubled automotive companies. Even the industry executives who were asked in a soon to be released survey expect more alliances to develop in the next five years. Many automotive alliances have been tried over the years and most failed to live up to the expectations that were used to initially justify them. I think that alliances between particularly large automotive manufacturers make little sense and I don't expect many to occur in the next five years.

General Motors is creating a Flexible Power Train Architecture for Future Hybrid Vehicles

January 8, 2007

All the Technology Needed for 100 M.P.G. (Batteries Not Included) | www.nytimes.com

The new Chevrolet Volt to be shown at the North American International Auto Show illustrates an important strategic move on the part of General Motors Corporation. It signals their intention to embrace new environmentally friendly technologies with important consumer benefits. The power train architecture, demonstrated in the Chevy Volt show vehicle, has the potential to reduce fuel consumption (and airborne pollution) and is flexible enough to accommodate whatever direction future development of power train technology takes. A very smart move on GM’s part!

 

Partnership, Partnership, Partnership

January 3, 2007

Ford shares rise on hope Toyota could help on costs | news.yahoo.com

The Automotive industry alliance rumors continue. In this article a meeting between executives of Ford and Toyota, for reasons not made public, is raising the prospect of some form of joint activities between the two manufacturers. While in its current troubled state, Ford could receive major benefits from an alliance with Toyota, the reverse is not true. Without mutual benefits an alliance is very unlikely.

 

New Technology is always welcome, If it is better!

December 27, 2006

New Type of Battery Pushed for Hybrid Cars | www.freep.com

New technology that offers performance, size, weight, reliability or cost benefits are the engine that drives product improvements in the automotive industry. If the new battery described in this article truly lives up to its claims, it will be a welcome development for application on hybrid and electric vehicles. It may, perhaps have an important advantage for application on conventional vehicles as well.

Has Detroit lost another market segment?

December 26, 2006

Adjusting The Lines | www.forbes.com

The competition in the automotive market is brutal and has hit the domestic manufacturers hard. Their initial response has been to reduce costs by reductions in employee and retiree benefits, headcount reductions and plant closings. Now the focus is on the product offerings. Decisions are being made on retreating from market segments that are not doing well and to focus on the "core" market segment needed for survival. This may be a necessary strategy given the huge financial losses of these companies, but it is also an approach which has its own risks.

The Next Battle of the Automotive Wars

December 21, 2006

America's Line In The Sand | www.forbes.com

Toyota will soon introduce a new full sized pickup truck aimed squarely at the remaining sweet spot in the automotive market still dominated by Detroit automakers. They are actively trying to emphasize the "built in America" image for their new vehicle to appeal to the loyal customers of Detroit’s offerings. This marks the beginning of a new battle between Detroit and Japan and the outcome will determine if Detroit companies will continue to be major players in the automotive business.

The Future of Automotive Powertrain Design is in a major state of Flux.

December 15, 2006

Survey Predicts Higher Fuel Costs, Gradual Technology Shifts | wardsauto.com

Automotive power train technology is going through a period of very rapid development. Similar to the struggle at the beginning of the last century, the outcome is uncertain and will take perhaps several decades to sort out all of the technical and business issues. About one hundred power train experts were surveyed on their thoughts on this evolving technology and the results are reported in this article published by Wards Automotive. The implications are that these developments will tax the capabilities of all of the automotive manufacturers and perhaps result in significant changes in their business models.

 

How will the Chinese Automotive market develop?

November 29, 2006

Too Many Chinese Cars, Too Few Chinese Buyers. So Far. | www.nytimes.com

The Chinese automotive market is dynamic and growing rapidly. It is being driven by the plans of its Communist government for a major Chinese vehicle export business, the growth of domestic automotive manufactures not controlled by the state, and by the ambitions of global automotive companies to participate in this huge market. This is a complex mix of economic pressures. If the Communist government can permit a stable and open market, the desires of all three factions may be met.

Excess Automotive production Capacity-More Stress for Detroit

November 24, 2006

North American Automotive Production Capacity to Peak in 2008 | wardsauto.com

If the assembly plant forecasts of Wards AutoWorld magazine analysts are accurate than even with the announced plant closings, there will still be substantial excess capacity in 2008. This foreshadows increased stress for Detroit automakers. The impact on each of the big three is different, but all suffer from a lack of "hot" product in the passenger car market. Thus in addition to the restructuring efforts on the businesses, Detroit automakers also need to be"restructuring" their product offerings.

 

There is one Detroit Automaker who may benefit from an "Alliance"

November 20, 2006

Time Ripe for DC to Consider Third Partner | wardsauto.com

Thus far "alliance" discussion with Detroit automakers have been a bust, probably for good reasons. However I think the both Daimler Chrysler and Nissan Renault are under pressure on a number of fronts. These pressures could drive them to consider a partnership for reasons discussed in my commentary.

Managing Unsold Vehcile Inventory

November 13, 2006

Chrysler's inventory casts long shadow on Detroit | news.yahoo.com

Unsold dealer vehicle inventory is a recurring problem for automotive manufactures. The problem appears when customer demands change rapidly, in sometimes unexpected ways. The traditional remedies, cutting back on production and offering special customer incentives are expensive and sometimes they just prolong the problem. A new business model in needed to eliminate the problem.

What is the market for "small" cars?

November 8, 2006

The Plot Against Small Cars | www.forbes.com

Detroit automakers have had a problem producing and marketing small vehicles. As Mr. Flint points out in his article, the big three have assumed that small cars have small profits. They also assume that UAW staffed assemble plants can not produce small vehicles in a cost-effective manner. He also notes that Americans have shown a preference for larger vehicles, perhaps as a result of the limited and weak offerings coming out of Detroit. The big question is why have the Japanese and now Korean (and perhaps soon to be Chinese) automakers been so successful in this market segment.

China should not be Ford's First Priority!

November 2, 2006

Bill Ford Jr.: For Auto Makers, China is the New Frontier | online.wsj.com

The Chinese automotive market is growing and is attracting many major automotive manufacturers. I am sure that Ford would very much like to participate in this market to keep up with its competitors. However it is not an easy place to start up major operations, given the tight controls exerted by the Chinese Communist government. Given the time and capital necessary to become a significant player in China, I think Ford would be better served by focusing its resources on its home market and returning the company to profitability.

Managing unsold vehicle inventory is the next competitive arena for Auto-makers

October 27, 2006

Flush Inventories At Auto Dealers Might Vex Detroit | online.wsj.com

Ideal automotive retail inventories requires a delicate balance between meeting changing customer desires and minimizing the cost associated with these unsold vehicles. The important point is not how the inventory is counted, but rather how it is managed. The big three auto-makers are trying to reduce their costs to return to profitability. There are limits to what can be achieved by this strategy. I think another strategy that can be pursued is to build to retail customer orders. The manufacturer who is capable of that feat and can deliver a vehicle in a time that is acceptable to the retail customer will have a strong competitive advantage and will see significant cost saving as well.

GM should continue to benefit from the growing Chinese market!

October 23, 2006

GM sales accelerate in China | www.freep.com

The Chinese automotive market is hot and rapidly growing (at least compared with other global market areas). General Motors is benefiting from this growth and while the same rate of increasing sales becomes more difficult as the volume increases, I expect GM to continue to do well. The long term status of this market hinges on future plans and actions of the Chinese Communist government. They are ensuring the creation of a strong domestic capability to design, engineer, and produce automobiles. Their goals clearly involve exportation of large numbers of Chinese produced vehicles. The long term future of non-Chinese automotive manufacturers in China is a great unknown.

The Police vehicle Market is becoming competitive again!

October 19, 2006

Automakers in Hot Pursuit of Police Cars | yahoo.businessweek.com

Police vehicles represent a small-specialized vehicle market that for the past decade has been served primarily by Ford. With other manufacturers now again producing RWD vehicles (strongly preferred by law enforcement activities) this market is again becoming very competitive. Ford is likely to become the loser as a result.

Joint Efforts in Auto Industry

October 16, 2006

Toyota Official Predicts More Partnerships In the Auto Industry | online.wsj.com

There has been a long history of "partnerships" in the automotive industry on a project by project basis.  These have been used to reduce engineering development and production costs.  These arrangements make sound business sense and are necessary in the increasingly competitive automotive marketplace.

Nasty, perhaps not!

October 16, 2006

GM: Things Are About to Get Nasty | www.businessweek.com

Mr. Kerkorian’s objective throughout the unfolding of events at GM has been to obtain a large return on his major investment. There are a number of possible strategies he could take now that the proposed alliance with Nissan/Renault has collapsed, but one approach that may result in achieving his goal is to support CEO Rick Wagoner in his efforts to return General Motors to sustained profitability.

General Motors is not feeble participant in the alliance negotiations

October 3, 2006

Feeble? GM wants its share of big alliance savings | www.freep.com

The investigations of the possibilities of an Alliance between General Motors and Nissan/Renault have apparently identified substantial cost saving potentials by combined high volume purchasing. However the increasingly revitalized GM is hanging tough on how these savings are shared between alliance partners. Given these issues, my opinion is that an alliance will not occur, but some form of joint purchasing ventures is possible. This could benefit both companies without all of the issues associated with a full alliance. Other areas of cooperation may also emerge in component and powertrain development.

 

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