Mr. Michael Lynch

GLG News by Mr. Michael Lynch, Consultant

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Expert networks require rebranding

May 13, 2011

Analysis of:Next Up:A Crackdown on Outside-Expert Firms | www.nytimes.com

Federal prosecutors are shifting focus from insider trading to expert networks. Prosecutors say money managers seek impending information on large technology companies. The insider trading investigation has had a chilling effect on the expert network industry. Large financial firms are reducing their use of expert networks. Last year revenue at expert network firms dropped 20 to 30 %. The Gerson Lehrman Group, industry's largest, employs a full-time compliance staff of 20 people.

Predictably, France stalls on shale gas

May 12, 2011

Analysis of:French Lean Toward Ban of a Controversial Gas Extraction Technique | www.nytimes.com

Hess Oil, Toreador Energy, Vermilion Energy, Total and Schuepbach Energy have run into a serious stumbling block in France. French lawmakers opened debate Tuesday on proposals to ban the use of hydraulic fracturing in the completion of shale gas well. Even before the final study is complete in June, deputies in the National Assembly are expected to pass a ban on Wednesday. The legislation will then go to the Senate. In Poland, with a worry about Russian gas, the search for shale gas goes on.

Verdi's Nabucco in 1843, a success. European Union's Nabucco falters in 2011.

May 10, 2011

Analysis of:Europe's Nabucco Pipeline Delayed Again | www.nytimes.com

The European Union's plans to start construction of the Nabucco pipeline has been delayed for another year. The object of this line is to reduce dependence on Russia for natural gas. The reason for the delay is that the consortium has failed to line up supply contracts. This latest delay may further undermine confidence in the viability of Nabucco; already facing soaring costs beyond the €7.9 billion estimate. Potential investors fret because of competing pipelines and no supply contracts.

Plenty of $8.00/million natural gas in Alaska National Petroleum Reserve

May 8, 2011

Analysis of:USGS sees 18-32 tcf recoverable in NPR-Alaska | ogj.com

The U.S. Geological Survey published an economic analysis that indicates 18 trillion feet of undiscovered natural gas can be economically produced from the National Petroleum Reserve at $8/ thousand cubic feet (MCF). At $10/MCF, 32 trillion cubic feet could be economical. This does not include the cost of a pipeline to move it from Alaska to the lower 48. The same analysis found that 273 million barrels of undiscovered crude can be recovered at a price of $72/bbl. At $90/bbl, that goes to 500.

Improved world economies and Japan's ills cause natural gas glut to diminish

May 7, 2011

Analysis of:Natural Gas Glut Begins to Shrink | www.rigzone.com

The global natural gas glut is disappearing faster than expected as a result of good Asian economies and nuclear reactor shut downs in Japan. In late 2008 the world fell into recession at the same time that huge shale gas resources were coming on line in the U.S. Some of the imbalance vanished in 2010 but the pace is picking up now. China, India and Brazil are major contributors to the improved economies. War in Libya and the earthquake in Japan has cut into marginal LNG supply to Europe.

Saudi Aramco joins the switch to natural gas as oil wanes

May 6, 2011

Analysis of:y of heavy crude from multiple reservoirs, none famous. It is an expensive onnected to 41 kilometers of causeway. | www.ogj.com

Saudi Aramco will attain a production rate of 15.5 billion standard cubic feet of raw natural gas by 2015. Focus has shifted from crude oil to natural gas following the addition of 2 million bbl/day of capacity in the 2004-2009 period. While the focus of exploration and development will be directed toward conventional resources, the company is studying the potential of unconventional resources. Saudi Arabia's gas consumption has risen by 7%/year. Most goes to electric power and petrochemical.

Petrobras lowers break even cost for pre-salt Santos basin wells

May 4, 2011

Petrobras has increased productivity of its pre-salt wells resulting in reduced capital cost of 45%. The new estimated break even cost is $35-40/bbl down from a previous estimate of $40-45/bbl. Petrobras plans to create offshore hubs for drilling fluids which will further reduce transportation costs and improve efficiency. The pre-salt fields are located between 186 and 217 miles offshore Brazil. Petrobras hopes to disclose its new strategic plan for 2011-2015 later this month.

Petrobras revises capital cost for Santos basin development

May 3, 2011

The Petrobras annual review of the Master Plan for Santos basin that was presented on Monday revealed the reduction of estimated investments. It now appears that outlays will be reduced by 45% from the original 2008 Master Plan. Through 2015, Petrobras expects to spend $73 billion. The reasons for the reduction is attributed to higher well productivity and a better understanding of the region's production potential. Petrobras expects to increase production by 613,000 bbl/day in 2015.

More light on Arctic hydrocarbon potential

May 2, 2011

Within the Arctic Circle that covers 20 million square kilometers, an estimated 400 billion barrels of oil equivalent exists. The main basins with mostly untapped reserves are in Russia: the Barents Sea, the Kara Sea and the Yamal Peninsula and in Alaska: the North Slope. Other important basins are Timan-Pechora, the MacKenzie Delta and the Sverdrup basin, both in Canada. Crude oil source rocks exist. The region appears to be mainly a natural gas province. Explorationists ask why this is so.

Shale gas economics?. Now you see them. Now you don't. What is the reality?

May 1, 2011

For the first time in nearly 16 years, more rigs were drilling for oil than for gas in the U.S. Exploration and production companies still leading the shale gas charge will be happy to see higher gas prices. While continuing to claim that shale gas is profitable at prices in the range $4.50-5.00/million btu, their financial results suggest something else. The truth is, as demonstrated by Art Berman in a recent AAPG presentation that excluding new well production, the annual decline rate is 44%.

Inpex and Itochu study LNG plant with Gazprom for Vladivostok

April 29, 2011

Japan Far East Gas (Inpex), ITOCHU, Japan Petroleum Exploration company (JAPEX)and Marubeni have signed an agreement with Gazprom to to conduct a front end engineering development plan for construction of a liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant pilot and a gas-chemical complex project. The projects will be built near Vladivostok. On March 19, in Eastern Siberia, Prime Minister Putin revealed his intentions to increase LNG supply to Japan. A compressed natural gas project is included in the plan.

Persian Gulf attracts new drilling rigs with higher day rates

April 27, 2011

The Middle East is the destination for many newbuild rigs according to Ibraham Al-Alawi, CEO of AlMansoori Petroleum Services. Rigs are coming in at the rate of two per month on long term contracts. There will be a 30% increase in land rig activity in the UAE. Saudi Aramco is currently operating 100 rigs with plans to bring in 25 to 30 more this year. There is great interest in extended-reach well which can achieve maximum reservoir contact. Drilling is 2/3 for oil and 1/3 for natural gas.

Gazprom to explore Barents and Kara seas in Arctic Province

April 26, 2011

Gazprom has approved a program to develop hydrocarbon resources on the Russian continental shelf through 2030. The company says that over 80% of the resources are located in in the Barents, Pechora and Kara seas. A priority is development of Shtokman gas/gas condensate field. The program will use advanced engineering and technology. The program should allow Gazprom to produce over 200 billion cubic meters of gas per year and 10 million tons of oil by the year 2030. Progress report due in 2012.

Chevron's CEO John Watson rattles the sword on UK tax hike

April 23, 2011

The oil and gas industry airs its views on taxation with regularity. Chevron's CEO John Watson said it was disappointing to see the new United Kingdom tax hike from 32% from 20%. He added that the UK has become an unstable place to operate from an investment point of view. Could the UK become a banana republic? Watson said his concern was not only the level of taxation but the unpredictability of it. "We choose venues that have the right geologic and fiscal terms", he said. Was it a threat?

Long term success of small independents in Gulf of Mexico still uncertain

April 22, 2011

With staggering potential liability as a result of the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, investors feared that small independents would be forced to leave the area. So far, few companies have abandoned their offshore positions. Some small producers vow to remain in the deep water game. Small investors have historically played a large role in development of the Gulf of Mexico oil and gas fields. While still present in the Gulf, key questions as to their survival remain unanswered.

Will China's capital surplus fund more oil and gas development in the future

April 20, 2011

China's crude oil self sufficiency is declining rapidly. This may accelerate Chinese oil acquisitions. China is also turning to downstream joint ventures to get access to additional refined products. China's oil dependency will soon equal that of the United States. The U.S. currently imports 61% of domestic requirements while China imports 58%. With greater foreign oil dependence, China has begun to employ innovative approaches. Buying into downstream projects gets products at a faster rate.

Expected UK North Sea crude oil declines increase oil price uncertainty

April 18, 2011

Exploration activity declined in the UK North Sea oil province during Q-1 of 2011. Recently enacted government tax increases have had a negative impact on industry optimism reflected by reduced capital and exploratory spending. Weakness in oil output is expected to continue in 2011. For 2010, the decline was 111,000 bbl/day. In Norway, an additional 200,000 bbl/day are needed to maintain the current production rate. Norway oil output is declining faster than that of the UK.

U.S. Interior Department seeks to export MC-252 hysteria

April 16, 2011

Drilling regulators from a dozen countries on Thursday agreed to form a "working group" that could someday develop into a set of global offshore drilling standards.Secretary Ken Salazar suggested the idea at the conclusion of a summit on offshore drilling safety. The focus was on learning lessons from last year's Deepwater Horizon disaster. Currently a patchwork of standards vary from ocean to ocean. Salazar strapped the task of development onto his offshore drilling chief Michael Bromwich.

LNG demand increases even as winter ebbs

April 15, 2011

As the northern hemisphere winter draws to a close, LNG demand continues to grow. United Kingdom imports were at their highest levels in March. Argentina and Japan will require more LNG in the coming months. The earthquake in Japan had almost no impact on demand because the Sendai terminal is small. Japan will need more LNG as a result of problems with nuclear plants. Exports are down in Algeria as a result of an outage at the Skikda liquefaction facility. Kuwait has resumed its summer imports.

Regulatory nightmare in offshore drilling moving ahead against rising antagonism

April 13, 2011

The administration is exploring the possibility of expanding federal oversight of offshore drilling beyond oil and gas companies. Rig suppliers, oil fields service providers and various offshore contractors could fall into the grasp of BOEMRE. The move would require congressional action and could be held up in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives. Also the government is reviewing how to consider an oil company's safety record when deciding whether or not to issue a drilling permit.

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