Mr. Mike Riegel

Owner, Aviation IQ

GLG News by Mr. Mike Riegel, Owner

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Gulfstream & General Dynamics Miss A Golden Opportunity With Netjets

March 1, 2011

Bombardier Aerospace have stolen the march by landing a key order from fractional leader, Netjets. With an order for 50-120 Global business jets, Bombardier have finally realized the benefit of the technologies and risks they took, fifteen years ago, when they launched the Global Express business jet program. With a mature Global Express program, and a product family that still boasts state-of-the-art operating economics, Bombardier have put Gulfstream in a weak position in a key market segment

Forecasting Business Jet Demand By Aircraft Model & OEM. Easy, Right?

November 4, 2010

Forecasting in business aviation is popular: Honeywell, Rolls-Royce, Bombardier, PWC. Most forecasts have failed to predict the timing or magnitude of market shifts, making their predictions of limited use. They are even worse at predicting aircraft program volume or market share, the Holy Grail of bizjet forecasting. We have combined thirty years of consumer research, and the industry's leading analyst to create an index that can predict aircraft volume and market share.

Can Cessna win a war against Embraer?

October 19, 2010

Textron and Cessna have made some decidedly questionable decisions bout new aircraft programs. In recent years, they launched, and then canceled the Columbus. Today, we have heard news regarding an upgrade to the Citation X. During a week when Embraer took an order for 50-125 of their freshly-certificated Phenom 300 light jet, are Cessna diverting yet more resource they desperately need to refresh their light and super-light jets?

Bombardier's New Global Express 7000 & 8000

October 17, 2010

There is much excitement surrounding today's announcement from Bombardier Business Aircraft. In all of the excitement, however, very little thought has been given to market potential for the new Bombardier and Gulfstream products. New variants may well sell at the expense of existing programs, and neither player has presented a strong argument that new designs will enlarge the overall pie. These new designs might also force both companies to offer generous trade-ins for existing designs.

New Aircraft and New Players Coming To Business Aviation

September 30, 2010

Analysis of:Bombardier Launches It's New Global Express Family | www.streetinsider.com

Over the last forty years, Bombardier, General Dynamics Gulfstream division, Textron's Cessna and Hawker Beechcraft have dominated business aviation. North America has 20,000 of the worldwide fleet of 30,000 business aircraft in service, with many existing players assuming that life would remain the same. Embraer have helped change the game, with SOCATA, Piaggio and at least 2-3 new manufacturers close to committing. Now, legacy players are announcing new programs, hoping to retain their lead.

Recovery In Business Jet Demand - A Few Simple Truths

October 29, 2009

Analysis of:Business-Jet Demand Likely to Skid Before Regaining Lift | online.wsj.com

1) A brief historical review will show any casual observer that new jet deliveries lag wider economic recovery by some 12 months. 2) Demand heading into the current downturn was already dominated by international demand. 3) What most forecasts fail to highlight is who the winners will be as the business jet market recovers. Unlike prior cycles, some demand sources will be late to the party, and demand will not be evenly distributed across all OEMs and service providers.

Business Jet Recovery - The Road Ahead

October 28, 2009

Analysis of:Textron Barely Posts a Profit | online.wsj.com

The business jet cycle has certainly hit rock bottom, but will not show clear signs of recovery for at least six months. This recovery will be unique, in that there is significantly more competition, in virtually all major business aviation segments. As a result, understanding who will recover more quickly, and more sustainably, will require much more detailed analysis than before.

Business aviation market recovery will be unlike any prior cycle

March 27, 2009

Analysis of:business-jet market faces recession-based challenges | online.wsj.com

1) The current downturn was already evident in late 2007. Between rising used aircraft inventories, and tightness in the aircraft financing market, a significant downturn was inevitable. The major OEM's maintained record production rates, with scant regard for an imminent slowdown, much as they did in 2001/2002. 2) These same OEM's have also under-analyzed their backlog, boasting numbers they claimed would make them all-but invulnerable to any downturn. Backlog has meant less in recent years as speculators and international concept buyers, all of whom carry risk for OEM's, have come to represent an ever higher proportion of backlog. 3) Looking forward, we are set for a competitive battle unlike any we have seen previously. Segments are now crowded. More international OEM's are emerging, and demand will drift away from legacy OEM's, like Cessna, Hawker Beechcraft and Gulfstream.

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