Mr. Paul Hodges

GLG News by Mr. Paul Hodges, Chairman

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Boom, Gloom and the New Normal

August 13, 2011

Analysis of:This Time, Maybe the U.S. Is Japan | online.wsj.com

The USA and other Western nations are following the path of Japan's economy post-1990 and the ending of its housing/stock market boom. Our detailed new analysis, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal - how the Western BabyBoomers are Changing Global Demand Patterns, Again shows why. It argues, contrary to conventional economic opinion, that demand is falling in the West due to the ageing of the BabyBoomers. 29% of the Western population is now 55+, and older people spend less, and save more.

Q2 Chemicals Results raise Concerns about the Outlook

August 5, 2011

History shows that a sustained rise of oil prices to current levels has always led to a recession.Chemical company results for Q2 do nothing to suggest that 'this time is different'.

European Petchem Cracker Margins at 'Top of Cycle Levels' on Supply-Side Issues

July 27, 2011

European petchem cracker margins are at top of cycle levels. But they have been driven by a series of positive impacts on the supply side, not by strong European demand. This makes the outlook more unstable than most investors may realise.

Sinopec's Petrochemical Business 1998 - 2010

July 13, 2011

Chinese company Sinopec will be the world’s largest ethylene producer by 2014. Our new report (available via GLG Research), based on in-depth analysis of its historical performance, demonstrates that its key role is instead to maximise domestic employment by being a reliable supplier of raw materials to manufacturers down the value chain. It is essential reading for anyone wishing to understand how ‘the China factor’ will impact Asian and global petrochemical markets over the next few years.

Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again

June 29, 2011

Economists and demographers have failed to talk to each other over the past 20 years. If they had, we would all understand why global growth has recently been slowing. My new eBook, Boom, Gloom and the New Normal – How Western BabyBoomers are Changing Chemical Demand Patterns, Again will help investors make up for lost time.

Oil price volatility will challenge chemical company profits

May 8, 2011

Many analysts have taken Q1 chemical company results as an excuse to upgrade their full-year forecasts. This flies in the face of history, which shows that whilst companies do well initially as oil prices rise, they then pay a severe penalty in terms of future profits and volume. With oil prices now under pressure, the rest of 2011 could therefore prove a lot more difficult than expected.

Chemical companies need to warn on the outlook

April 15, 2011

Rising oil prices can lull investors into a dangerous sense of complacency.They appear to lead to a sustained period of robust chemical demand, as buyers rush to protect supplies. This creates a '13 month' year in terms of volumes and profits. But when oil prices stabilise, or fall, this trend reverses, and we have an '11 month year', as buyers destock again.

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals - An Update

March 28, 2011

2 weeks ago, i proposed 3 Scenarios to help investors evaluate the potential impact of the Japan disaster on the chemical industry. Sadly, it appears that the first, Short-term Recovery, now appears unlikely. This means we need to prepare for either a Medium-term Rebuilding Scenario or a Long-term Damage Scenario.

The Potential Impact of the Japan Disaster on Chemicals

March 16, 2011

Never in our working lives have we faced the combination of an earthquake, a tsunami and a potential nuclear meltdown - all taking place in the world's 3rd largest economy.Today, therefore, it seems sensible to simply try and record, as objectively as possible, some key facts as we know them. I will also suggest some possible Scenarios that investors might use to help navigate through these difficult times.

Chemical companies report strong Q4 results

March 2, 2011

Chemical companies had an unexpectedly good 2010. Stimulus measures in China drove an improvement in demand, whilst feedstock supply constraints supported pricing and margins. But today's high oil prices will hit discretionary spending in the West, just as China tightens its policies to combat inflation. 2011 therefore looks much more uncertain.

PetroChina offer $1bn for INEOS European refining JV

January 31, 2011

INEOS have closed their proposed JV refining deal with PetroChina. They have got an excellent price, plus the potential to expand their activities further as the strategic partnership develops.

INEOS plans refining/technology JVs with PetroChina

January 11, 2011

INEOS have announced a major deal with PetroChina. It involves Joint Ventures in refining and oil/oil product trading, with a separate agreement on refining/petrochemical technology exchange. From an INEOS viewpoint, this enables it to consolidate its geographic footprint outside W Europe/USA, and leverage its technology in China.

Chemical industry faces great uncertainty in 2011

January 4, 2011

2010 was a better year than many had expected in the chemical industry. But demand remained low in many key markets, and operating rates ended the year well below the normal levels of the past 20 years at just 86%. Current uncertainties over likely demand levels in China, Europe and even the USA, combined with the major demographic changes now underway, suggest that Scenario Planning is therefore likely to come back into favour with investors during 2011.

Chemical companies have mixed views on outlook

November 11, 2010

Chemical companies have mostly had an excellent year in terms of margins. It has been far better than they expected even 6 months ago. But whilst some expect this improvement to be maintained, others remain cautious. And in the important Asian region, Reliance report margin pressures in key business segments.

Chemical Company Outlook for 2011 -13

October 24, 2010

The chemical industry has had a good year, even though Operating Rates globally have remained sunk at 2003 levels. This may continue, but an additional element of uncertainty has been added by the recent outbreak of 'currency wars' between the West and the BRICs. A Scenario approach therefore seems sensible for investors, as they seek to forecast 2011 performance.

Chemical company margins benefit from feedstock shortages

September 27, 2010

2010 has seen major changes taking place in the relative price and availability of the main petrochemical ‘building block’ products. These changes are being driven by the wider changes taking place in the economy and society, as we move to a ‘New Normal’ world characterised by less debt, lower consumption, more recycling and slower growth.

Crude oil markets are in the grip of a speculative mania

August 11, 2010

Crude oil markets are in the grip of a speculative mania. Players are simply ignoring increasingly negative fundamentals, such as supply/demand balances. But before too long, this over-bullish sentiment will have to re-connect with fundamentals. At that point, users will be left to pick up the pieces, as the financial players panic and rush for the exits.

The chemical earnings cycle hits its peak

August 3, 2010

The best view is always from the top of the mountain. And that's how it feels today in the chemical industry, with the current earnings season showing a robust recovery versus H1 2009. The industry has benefited from the last of the stimulus spending around the world, whilst seasonal influences were also positive. But momentum seems to have been fading in recent weeks, and inventories have been building, whilst producers have increasingly struggled to pass through oil-related price increases..

Chemical companies may face diffiuclt Q3, after McBride's profit warning

June 27, 2010

Retail trends can tell us a lot about future profits and revenues in the chemical sector. McBride's profit warning on Thursday suggests Q3 is going to be a difficult period for both.

Dow Chemical's new Vision focuses on Performance and Market-Driven businesses

May 17, 2010

Analysis of:Dow Chemical to focus on performance businesses | www.icis.com

Dow Chemical became the world's second largest chemical company via a focus on Basic petrochemical and polymer products. Now, in a further sign of the changing strategic thinking that led to the Rohm & Haas acquisition, it is shifting its focus to the Performance and Market-Driven businesses. Its new Vision highlights its aim to be ‘science-driven’ in future.

Page : 123Next1 to 20 of 59