Mr. Rick Shea

GLG News by Mr. Rick Shea, President

GLG News is now G+ Insights

G+ is a community for professionals, academics and entrepreneurs to connect through online discussions and in-person meetings. You will continue to see G+ Insights (formerly GLG News) here as well as on the G+ website, where you can share and discuss the G+ Insights you read.

Kellogg's Leadership in the Cereal Market Under Attack

October 28, 2010

We are what you would call a heavy user household for the cereal category .With 4 teenage and junior high school kids what could be easier on those busy Monday through Friday mornings than a quick bowl of cereal. It’s convenient, nutritious and tastes good. The adult brands like Special K and Fiber One also work well for Mom and Dad.

Coffee Market Competition Remains Hot

October 20, 2010

Americans love their coffee and despite rising prices the love affair continues. Americans consume over $45 Billion dollars worth of coffee every year. Retail coffee shops like Starbucks drive most consumption but foodservice locations (offices, hotels, schools, restaurants) and the supermarket and grocery channel also drive strong sales. Despite a fickle and price sensitive consumer, coffee consumption continues to grow. As one would expect competition remains intense with ever growing crossover of retail brands (Starbucks, Dunkin Donuts, Caribou, Peets) into the home and foodservice channels.

Food Industry Mergers To Rise In 2011

September 7, 2010

Analysis of:Food Industry Mergers To Rise in 2011 | seekingalpha.com

Competitive activity remains intense,interest rates are ridiculously low and shoppers are more price sensitive than ever before. These factors will lead to further food industry consolidation in 2011. This is the first of a series of articles on potential merger or acquisition candidates for the supermarket industry. Think of it as fantasy football for the food industry. Some players go for a high value others are acquired on the cheap.In this part we will tackle the food retailers. Folks like Walmart ,Target and Kroger get the most news but many smaller retailers will need to continue to drive cost savings through mergers. The food retailing industry remains driven by actions of the consumer and the consumer is telling them they want better costs with great quality. This has led to food products being sold in all channels of trade. The food industry major retailers are classified into eight major types:Traditional Supermarkets: Kroger,Safeway,Super ValuMass Merchandisers: Walmart,Target,MeijerClub Stores :Costco,Sam's,BJ'sDollar : Dollar General, Dollar Tree,Family DollarDrug : CVS,WalgreensConvenience : 7-11,WawaNatural and Organic : Whole Foods,Trader JoesExtreme Value : Aldi,Save A-LotOne of the leaders in growth has been the dollar store industry with its ever expanding selection of food and consumer packaged goods. This has put pressure on traditional supermarkets like Kroger along with discounters like Walmart. Expect further consolidation in both traditional supermarkets and dollar stores.

Nestle Is The New 800 Pound Gorilla In Frozen Food

May 31, 2010

Nestle's recent acquisition of the Kraft frozen pizza division makes them the dominant player in frozen foods. With the acquisition, they add such well known brands as DIGiorno, Tombstone and California Pizza Kitchen to their already powerful frozen entrees and snacks brands (Stouffers,Lean Cuisine,Hot Pockets) With sales of more than $5.6 B in frozen foods they are more than triple their next major competitor Conagra with sales of $1.8B.

Private Label Performs in a Tough Market

February 11, 2010

Analysis of:Short Stop Battle of the Brands | finance.yahoo.com

Recent earnings results by Ralcorp (RAH) and AIPC (AIPC) have been met with a positive response from investors. Both companies delivered improved earnings growth with flat volume pulled lower by price deflation. Of course, it doesn't hurt that the stock market has gone negative and defensive stocks like food companies are by their nature more in favor during tough economic times.

Top Supermarket Trends For 2010

January 29, 2010

Analysis of:Top Super Market Trend for 2010 | www.seekingalpha.com

The Supermarket industry continues to provide a very tough competitive environment. Consumer pressure to drive value, quality, taste and nutrition in our food offerings requires strong companies with strong management teams to drive successful results. The consumer is calling the shots and voting with their grocery purchases. We have identified 6 major trends for 2010 that will drive the results of the major food manufacturers and retailers involved in the supermarket industry.

Kraft Continues Portfolio Shuffle

September 15, 2009

Analysis of:Kraft Under Pressure as Bid Value Slips | www.flex-news-food.com

Kraft Foods bid for Cadbury makes a lot of strategic sense and will allow them to increase their growth in international markets.The key to the deal is utilizing Cadbury's extensive distribution and sales network to further drive growth of existing Kraft products.Faced with the likelihood of having to increase the all cash portion of the bid Kraft will be looking at additional brands to divest and help pay for the acquisition.

World Class Packaging

April 2, 2009

Analysis of:FOOD PACKAGER OF THE YEAR: Packaging a big part of General success | www.foodandbeveragepackaging.com

The use and design of packaging is one of the most critical elements in a supermarket products success.Packaging provides multiple benefits and serves many key objectives for food manufacturers. ---Merchandising:Product must merchandise well and provide consumers with a quick,clean understanding of the product. ---Brand Positioning : Packaging conveys a feel and tone about every product including whether its value orientated or premium. ---Quality :Packaging must obviously protect the quality of any food product and contribute to shelf life in many cases. ---Preparation: Many packages need to provide a quick,cost effective way to prepare the product. ---Informational : All key labeling and nutrition info must be accurately and effectively communicated to the consumer ---Sustainable :Cost efficiency and environmentally friendly are very important to retailers and consumers.

Consumers Drive for Value in Their Food Purchases

March 25, 2009

Analysis of:What Sells in a Recession | www.time.com

The article provides a good descriptive assessment of how consumers supermarket shopping habits have changed in the last 3 months.Nervous, money challenged consumers are more price discriminating than ever before in their food purchases.Private Label sales are growing faster than the category and taking market share.Consumers are increasing their use of stores perceived as discounters. Walmart, Costco, BJ's and dollar stores continue to lead in same sales store growth.

Food Inflation Slows But Is Here To Stay

September 12, 2008

Analysis of:Food Inflation is likely to continue, experts say | www.venturacountystar.com

Commodity inflation appears to have peaked for the short term but long term commodities will continue to rise creating above average food inflation.How food and restaurant companies react will be the key to future price increases.

Food Companies Results Vary Based on Brand Strength

September 9, 2008

Analysis of:Amid turmoil,Big G still making dough | www.startribune.com

As commodity and energy costs continue to rise it has put more pressure on the botton lines of all food companies.Food companies have had to raise prices to offset these increases.However not all food companies are losing share to private label as a result of the price increases.

Organic and Natural Food Growth Stalls with Increased Commodity Costs

April 28, 2008

Analysis of:Naturally,Super Valu Customers Want More Options | www.forbes.com

Increasing commodity costs are having a negative impact to the growth of organic and natural foods.As commodities increase consumers are being more selective and price sensitive in their grocery shopping.This trend does not bode well for retailers like Whole Foods (WFMI) and the manufacturers that supply items to the leader in the organic and natural foods segment.

Apple's Superior Brand Strategy Leads to Strong Results

April 24, 2008

Analysis of:Apple's 2Q Results Beat Wall Street Views | biz.yahoo.com

Apple once again delivered very strong results in the face of hesitant consumers under recessionary pressures.Total revenue growth for the latest quarter was +36% led by the Mac brand in personal computers at +51%.The MP3 segment led by the I Pod brand delivered growth of +1% while the I-Phone sold 1.7 mm units.   So how is Apple able to deliver consistent sales and profit growth in tough recessionary times with premium pricing while many of its competitors deliver poor results.In a phrase --it's their superior branding strategy.  

Commodity Hedging-The Double Edged Sword

March 31, 2008

Analysis of:Against the Grain: Food Firms Hedge Costs | online.wsj.com

With ever rising commodity costs food companies that have hedged their key commodity purchases with forward buying have done quite well over the last year.Several key manufacturers have announced that they have hedged their raw materials by forward buying 60-70% of their 2008 needs.Lost in the discussion has been the potential for commodity prices to go down in the latter half of 2008.

Kraft and Sara Lee turnaround ? Real or wishful thinking ?

March 14, 2008

Analysis of:Kraft, Sara Lee say turnaround efforts are succeeding | www.chicagotribune.com

Kraft and Sara Lee executives recently spoke at analyst conference concerning their recent improvements to drive sales growth and improve operating margins.Both suggested the progress is real and sustainable.   Kraft highlighted new products and headcount reduction as keys to their progress.New products are clearly needed and our key to drive future sales growth.The job cuts they mentioned are real and should help them provide a lower cost basis to expand marketing and potentially improve margins at the same time.  Sara Lee also touted new product innovation and organizational restructuring as means to improve their growth and enhance profitability.Pricing is also key at both companies as they face strong headwinds in the face of commodity inflation.  Do we believe both CEO's assertions and are better days ahead for both companies ?

Who wins , who loses from rising food prices ? Part 2 --Retailers

January 11, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food Prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

As commodity prices increase, food manufacturers will be required to pass on higher raw material costs to their consumers.Over time these higher prices will put pressure on premium priced branded products and shift share to private label and value brands.Will this same pressure apply to retailers and hurt overall category sales ? Which retailers will benefit the most? Which retailers will be hurt on sales volume ?

Who wins , who loses with higher food prices ?

January 10, 2008

Analysis of:Higher Food prices Start to Pinch Consumers | online.wsj.com

Commodity prices continue to rise driving prices higher in the grocery aisle.Wheat ,corn,dairy and oil prices continue to climb creating a very challenging environment for food manufacturers and retailers.The rising prices begs the question of who will this benefit and who will this hurt over 2008 ? There are several distinct categories of companies that rising food costs will impact: --Branded Food Manufacturers (Kraft,General Mills,Kellogg's etc) --Value Food Manufacturers (Private Label producers,value priced branded companies) --Restaurants and Foodservice manufacturers --Grocery Retailers

Organic and Natural Foods Go Mainstream

December 5, 2007

Analysis of:Hot Cereal , Hey It's All Natural | www.nytimes.com

Large consumer packaged goods companies are finally waking up and embracing the volume opportunity in Organic and Natural Foods.For years ,most of the top selling products at Whole Foods and other Natural stores were made by small manufacturers.Large CPG companies were not quick to offer products because the volume was still small and there are greater difficulties in the manufacturing process to produce Natural and especially Organic products. Times are changing with many key retailers now starting to embrace Organic and Natural Foods.If their retail customers want these products its important that the large CPG companies offer them as part of their product portfolio.

Who Will Buy Wonder Bread ?

November 8, 2007

Analysis of:Twinkies Baker Opens Door To Bids | www.reuters.com

The recent article on Interstate Bakeries bankruptcy hearings now officially puts the company in play.IBC struggling from high plant and route costs and the unprecedented rise in flour costs has been attempting to emerge from bankruptcy.IBC Management has stated that their proposal values the company at  a value of at least $580mm.Yucaipa and Bimbo (Mexican bread retailer and owner of the Oroweat brand) have formed a group to propose an alternative deal.The result has been to effectively put IBC up for sale to all competing companies.

Ralcorp to Purchase Post cereals ?

November 5, 2007

Analysis of:Kraft Near Deal to Sell Post to Ralcorp | biz.yahoo.com

Ralcorp's potential pucrhase of Post cereals for $2.8 billion dollars will shake up the cereal category and provide another stronger competitor to General Mills and Kellogg's.The winner will be Ralcorp if they can successfully integrate Post and leverage their brands to strengthen their private label sales.The losers will be Malt-O-Meal and Quaker as both brands will be under further pressure in a consoildated category.  For Kraft Foods it means their divestiture strategy will speed up and provide them additional dollars to pursue acquisitions.Kraft's growth startegy is predicated on shifting their portfolio to focus on more international growth and focusing on the key snacks,beverages and possibly confections in markets outside the US.

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