Mr. Sam Timpano

GLG News by Mr. Sam Timpano, President

GLG News is now G+ Insights

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Looking in the rearview mirror will guarantee a crash, but, poor vision and steering to the front will as well

October 27, 2008

Analysis of:Bracing for a Storm | www.washingtonpost.com

Most of the world has missed a major paradigm shift that is still not clear enough to most "drivers" to avoid major collisions in the future. The historical economic models have not been properly updated to account for this new paradigm and the factors of the new model are going to permanently change how the world is viewed. Alan Greenspans' admission that his 40 plus year model and view of the world was flawed should make everyone perform a serious rethink on their world view as well.

Deeper issues determine Russian participation with OPEC

October 24, 2008

Analysis of:OPEC tests prospect of a cut in Russian oil production | www.iht.com

Russia has several issues of significance that keep them from becoming a major participant in OPEC price support efforts. This article does not take into account these macor-economic and geopolitical issues.

Time is ripe for a new paradigm in crude pricing policy

October 20, 2008

Analysis of:OPEC calls emergency meeting as oil prices plummet | www.iht.com

The current slide in crude prices, casualty of the global financial and credit crisis, should serve as a harbinger to producers that there is a need for a shift in how they manage production and pricing. The current pricing mechanisms used based upon existing markets in the US and Europe exposes these producers to a level of risk due to outside, non-aligned interests and speculators that should be the centerpiece of their upcoming meetings. Production cuts and investment into new production will certainly be cut back, but, if the producer nations can accept the lessons of the past, they will not rely on this lever to be what brings stability to pricing.

Demand is only a small part of this current price drop in crude

October 13, 2008

Analysis of:Oil price drops below $78 a barrel | www.iht.com

While it is logical to expect that the demand for crude has and will continue to fall as the worldwide economic slowdown continues, the current levels of decline are not related to that fundamental part of the equation. Massive hedge fund and speculator margin calls are more responsible for the forced selling that has deepened and accelerate the price declines we have seen these past 10 trading sessions.

Oil prices did not "soar over doubts about bailout plan" as this author states.

September 29, 2008

Analysis of:Oil prices soar over doubts about rescue plan | www.iht.com

The spike in oil prices on Monday was as far removed from the doubt on the Treasury's Plan as this author happens to be from a true understanding of crude trading. The only reason for the spike is what every novice trader who has ever stepped onto a trading floor knows--- a short squeeze on an expiring contract in the futures market. 

The first issue is to characterize the Treasury Plan as a bailout. It is not that at all.

September 29, 2008

Analysis of:Everybody Calm Down. A Government Hand In the Economy Is as Old as the Republic. | www.washingtonpost.com

With all due respect to the author, Washington is not the appropriate President to site as the authority that foresaw the current financial and economic issues we are facing today. Nor would many other Presidents be good examples. Not, Kennedy, nor Carter, nor Regan or even Clinton. In point of fact, each of these Presidents had no idea of where our financial system was moving, nor the implications of what "innovative financial engineering" was producing in the 20th and 21st century in which America lead the world. While Secretary Paulson has done a great job in creating a program that would address the needs of the global markets facing this potential meltdown of the US financial system, he is perhaps the worst "dog and pony show" man ever to have had to make a presentation to a not so intelligent audience.

There is no problem here for AIG nor risk to Airbus, Boeing or others

September 24, 2008

Analysis of:AIG draws up list of assets for sale in attempt to prevent nationalisation | business.timesonline.co.uk

AIG has sufficient assets to manage all of it's businesses effectively and efficiently. They also have more than adequate capability to buy itself back, if you like, from the US Treasury in short order. All of this is dependent upon the current stabilization plan presented by Treasury and the Fed to Congress is approved and implemented in a timely fashion.

Federal and Exchange regulators are at fault as are the "Short Sell Raiders"

September 18, 2008

Analysis of:Stocks volatile amid uncertainty | news.bbc.co.uk

There are two primary failures that have produced these "death spirals" of the financial institutions in the US and affecting others across the globe.   On top of the lax oversight at the institutions themselves and the ever aggressive creation of instruments and derivatives, the following regulation lapses are key to the problem and to resolving the problem.   The mark to market rules put in place following the Enron debacle and the removal of the rules governing short sellers on the Exchanges

This plan will help but no single plan or alternative can produce "Energy Independence"

July 31, 2008

Analysis of:IT'S TIME TO STOP AMERICA'S ADDICTION TO FOREIGN OIL | www.pickensplan.com

Wind power is an alternative that can help in the augmentation of reducing transport fuels from crude, however, it cannot produce energy independence. Every alternative should be developed and Pickens is making a very big business bet on wind.  He is in it for profit and the overriding factor for this major effort is to take advantage of the current climate in the public's mind to create awareness as well as garner support that will eventually be chaneled to congress for the support and continued subsidy this particular power source needs for economic viability. Also, one should also remember a major part of his solution involves the replacement of gasoline powered vehicles with natural gas, also a depleting commodity and another part of the energy complex where he has a major investment.

Where is America headed?

July 22, 2008

Analysis of:The Breakfast Wars: Starbucks Learns to Cook | www.nytimes.com

The continuing decline of American influence in the world is a significant shift in geopolitics and represents an increasing danger to national and international security. The political catharsis and lack of leadership in the US is damaging our economic future but more worriesome is the lessening influence on international policies on major issues.

A peak-oil and a post-oil plan is long overdue

July 21, 2008

Analysis of:Running On Empty | www.thenation.com

Paradigm shifts do not immediately show themselves. They move at glacial speeds and eventually catch and create great upheavals for the unprepared. US policy planners have failed for the past 30 odd years to look far enough into the future to avoid this first sign of a shifting paradigm that carries more risk for the US than most other nations. It is late, but not too late if reasonable and positive plans can be implemented.

Hydrogen future is exactly that- future

July 21, 2008

Analysis of:Hydrogen future doable, experts tell Congress | www.msnbc.msn.com

By all expert opinions the viability for hydrogen as a significant part of the transport fuel equation is at least 20 years away. That should not be a reason to slow development otherwise, 20 years from now when we are going to have significantly higher need for this fuel source to offset more serious fossil fuel issues for transport fuels. Technologies for commercial production plants and investments into infrastructure for widespread delivery to the consumer are still being developed. Until these are more advanced the hydrogen part of the energy equation will be minimal.

Newt is right but he is being too nostalgic

July 17, 2008

Analysis of:Do It All, Do It Now, Do It For America | www.humanevents.com

Every part of this article is accurate. I agree with every part of it save for two key points: 1. Our politicians are not at all like those that met the challenges of WW I and most especially WW II. 2. Our society has changed dramatically from that period as well and is so polarized on these critical issues that our future is more at risk now than when we faced the Nazis, Japan and others.

Food supply and prices need not reach crisis

July 16, 2008

Analysis of:Higher food prices are here to stay | www.guardian.co.uk

Leaving out the political aspects of this issue is difficult but doable as long as the readers understand that politics have a lot to do with issues like this. Unilateral and coordinated planning can avert many of the issues the author of this source article presents. Technological advances in seeds and the resultant impact that can have on yields as well as land availability will also help. Farmer education in many countries will also help improve production. What is missing? Policies and programs to make it happen.

Stating the obvious and a veiled threat, preview to a new era in oil geopolitics..

July 14, 2008

Analysis of:OPEC warns against military conflict with Iran | www.iht.com

The statements made by OPEC president El-Badri are intended not for enlightenment to any observer. Not too many people on the planet are unaware of what effect military action in the region would have on the global economy, especially in the West. They are a clear attempt by the cartel (and several key member nations who have bought the "Iranian insurance policy" that I have written about previously) to reverse pressures on Iran by the Western powers seeking to curtail the nuclear ambitions that they view as being more for military purposes than what Iran is stating. Welcome to the new world of economic hostage taking and blackmail.

Producer nations add more risks to importing nations from failed policies

July 14, 2008

Analysis of:South Korea cuts back on energy use | www.iht.com

Policies in crude producing countries are equally as important and unfortunately, failed, as those of the importing countries. Deepening social issues in OPEC member nations carry added risks to importing nations that are not being understood well enough to adequately gauge their potential impact to the global economy. This is an issue that carries an even greater need for sound policies that control reduction of dependency on imported crude, domestic exploration and production efforts as well as alternative energy developments.

The G-8 nations have all they need for help on energy prices, they just need to start doing it.

July 10, 2008

Analysis of:Rich G-8 nations looking for help on energy prices | www.iht.com

Dialogue is always good. Positives can usually be found, especially when interests are shared and capabilities are synergistic. The G-8 countries have most of the tools and especially the commonality of interests to produce positive and responsible results to any of the issues they face in common. The problem has always been that many times they cannot see the commonality of their interests and therefore get stuck in unilateral planning and solution implementation. Perhaps now, a new level of cooperation and multilateral implementation of solutions can begin. It is in everyone of their interests to do so.

Hopefully, no one is very surprised by the US trade with Iran

July 10, 2008

Analysis of:Despite conflict, U.S. does business with Iran | www.msnbc.msn.com

The article and the fact of US trade with Iran brings forward the almost laughable state of diplomatic policy in the US. Another reason why the sanctioned nations do not fret all that much under sanctions, especially those initially imposed. While diplomatic searches to avoid armed conflict are in everyone's favor, we should all stop fooling ourselves into believing that sanctions produce much change.

We should all hope this effort is successful. In truth it should not be necessary.

July 9, 2008

Analysis of:Brazil launches campaign to remove ethanol tariff | www.ethanolproducer.com

There is every reason to hope that the Washington brain trust will see the wisdom in removing this tariff. We should press all of our leaders to get behind this effort, it is more important than many of their compromised eyes can see. We should also press to abandon the current failed policy supporting corn to ethanol here in the US and press for alternative feedstock for biofuels that are not part of the food chain grains.

Another reason for the West to do nothing-Khourais cannot be a reason to become complacent

July 9, 2008

Analysis of:Saudi oil project brings skepticism to the surface | www.iht.com

There is no reason to doubt that the Saudi's have a real project here and have a significant vested interest in seeing that it and others like it are successful. The level of production and the timing of that production are unimportant in the much more important equation the West and the rest of the world economies have to consider. Even with this project at 100% of Saudi projections becoming reality, there are still a vast number of reasons for planning beyond and without it.

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