Sam Timpano

Mr. Sam Timpano

President, Sam Timpano & Associates


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GLG News by Mr. Sam Timpano, President

Analyses are solely the work of the authors and have not been edited or endorsed by GLG.

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Biofuels are a viable part of the equation; failed policies are the real culprit driving food prices

July 7, 2008

Report: Biofuels blamed for food price crisis | www.msnbc.msn.com

Ethanol, biodiesel, jet fuel replaced by coconut oil(Virgin Atlantic just completed their first flight using this fuel alternative over the weekend), heating oil from restaurant waste oil and the list goes on. These are part of the equation for reducing price pressures on crude. Failed policies by political leaders and pressures from certain agricultural special interest groups are contributing to food price inflation.

America, take note!

July 4, 2008

South Korea gets serious about reducing its dependence on foreign oil | www.iht.com

Domestic reserves of crude need to be developed to the fullest extent possible. Not doing so should be reason enough to remove whomever and whatever obstacle standing in the way. Enough of the hysteria about natural resource development from the environmentalists. For at least the next 30 years, this has to be part of the equation for America.

Blame enough to go around but what we need are solutions.

July 3, 2008

And the blame for high oil prices continues. | seattletimes.nwsource.com

I am no defender of the President on energy policy. Let's get that said upfront. But, I am also not a defender of Bill Clinton, Bush 1, Regan, Carter and I think you get the drift. I am even less of a defender of virtually every Congress going back as far as Truman. But, enough is enough already! Energy policy in the US has been irresponsibly managed and successfully hijaked by special interest groups long before Bubba got close to the White House.

Crude's reality check- more than speculation

July 3, 2008

Dr. Mark Yergin testifies to Congress | www.nytimes.com

Speculators do not make markets or create fundamentals that underpin markets. Speculators take risks to take advantage of markets or opportunities created by any form of imbalance in prices. It would be a mistake to think that wringing the speculators out of markets will restore much pricing stability to a market being driven by fundamentals that have shifted as dramatically as they have in much of the commodity sector. There is no single cause for crude's price run-up and everyone would be well served to stop seeking a single cause in order to find a single solution. It is not in the interest of anyone to do so.

Export restrictions taken unilaterally are a significant concern in commodity price rises.

July 2, 2008

Once Safe, Public Pensions are Now Facing Cuts | www.nytimes.com

Restrictions on exports of key commodities are part of a "Perfect Storm" scenario that is a more critical part of the upward commodities price spiral than many nations and experts give credence to. Exporting countries are going to have increasing difficulties in maintaining levels of exports resulting from domestic internal demands along with events in nature and geopolitics. This situation bodes poorly for global inflation rates as well as continuing price and supply instability across a broad range of critical commodities. New policies have to be developed on a more global basis rather than on the basis of doing what is expedient for a single nation or group of producers and exporters.

Congressional Freeze on Solar Generation Is Height of Political Folly

July 2, 2008

Once Safe, Public Pensions are Now Facing Cuts | www.nytimes.com

With all of the discussions taking place today concerning energy and alternatives, it is the height of policy disconnect to freeze projects of this nature. Just when it is more important than ever for Congress to act intelligently on critical matters related to energy, they show just how misguided they are and how sold-out they are to environmentalists and their old ways of making policies that do more harm than good.

The real danger is more than inflation.

June 26, 2008

The Return of Inflation? | www.washingtonpost.com

A wise friend once told me that a cobra is not a danger in and of itself. It is only a danger if one is not aware of it's presence and if, upon becoming aware of it's presence one takes a wrong action and is bitten by the cobra. So it is with inflation. It is not so much that it is here, it is reaching awareness of it's presence and taking the correct actions to deal with it properly.

Pounding sand in Jeddah

June 24, 2008

Oil prices mark the need for alternative energy sources | www.busrep.co.za

It is never fun to go to a party and realize that the hosts were just looking for something to do and needed a cover story but never really wanted you there to begin with. Equally unpleasant is to go to a party and find out that your expectations were completely wrong as to what it was all about. Welcome to the new party.            

The real reason behind China's decision to reduce subsidies on fuels

June 23, 2008

China Raises Fuel, Power Prices to Curb Energy Demand | www.bloomberg.com

Anyone experienced in China understands what is said publicly and what the true political motivations are is usually a fairly wide distance from each other. There is no difference here. China's reduction of subsidies has more to do with helping their refineries margins than an attempt to dampen demand.

Just the tip of this particular iceberg

June 16, 2008

Oil - paying the political price | news.bbc.co.uk

The geopolitical implications have an even deeper root in several of the producing countries. As internal demand in these producer nations increases the supply tensions are going to increase on both import countries as well as many of these exporters. With the current policies of most of the Western countries (read most of the importers) that have limited domestic development of resources and held back the development of nuclear power for electricity generation, many of them are at risk of severe shortages and internal pressures on standards of living.

China together with other members that make up BRIC could significantly alter growth in other regions.

June 13, 2008

China Is Urged to Conserve Resources | online.wsj.com

The question posed does not specify a time period, so the reply is a qualified "yes". China's growth alone to reach even a major percentage of the GDP of the US will have a significant impact to aspects of the worls's other developed economies. We are experiencing some of that impact now. Even greater impact will be felt as the other countries that do not compose what is referred to as the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China) such as many of the Middle Eastern countries, Mexico, Vietnam, several African States and to lesser extent some other Latin American countries that have large percentages of their populations living below the poverty level begin to realize levels of growth enabling improvement to these groups.

Coal-fired plants can be cleaned without this type of technology

June 12, 2008

Eco coal power may cost 'double' | news.bbc.co.uk

While this is a bit like asking the fox that is in the henhouse if he intends to eat the chickens, coal-fired plants can be cleaned without this type of technology risk, cost and delay.

It is not reasonable to think that the rise in crude can be controled

June 9, 2008

Dow Jones plunges about 400 points | www.msnbc.msn.com

The question as to whether or not anything can be done to control the rise in crude oil prices is not reasonable as it would relate to a global commodity such as crude oil. The better question would be is there anything that can be done to control the various groups that are contributing substantially to an exaggerated rise in crude prices and the bubble that is being created in that market. As part of the quest for control, it is important to understand the fundamentals moving crude versus the push that speculators are providing.

No fundamental reason to believe Iraq will be able to lift production now or into the forseeable future.

June 9, 2008

Iraq oil deals could lift production | www.iht.com

Iraq is anything but stable and will remain so well into the near future. Expecting that their production can be increased over a sustain future at this point in time is more than optimistic, it is pure conjecture. Nothing in the present conditions of any segment of Iraq can be viewed as stable, not the least of which is their crude production and deliveries.

Flawed analysis

June 3, 2008

Oil expert says 3 countries control prices | www.charleston.net

This analysis does not hold water for a number of reasons. Oil prices are easy to explain without the conspiracy theories that make for interesting reading and conversation but not in reality.

Sugar to ethanol should become a major shift that will benefit all

June 2, 2008

Sugar prices sink to 7-month low on supply glut | ap.google.com

The US corn based ethanol policy was, is and will always be a failed policy and a boondoggle of incredible proportions. Adopting a sugar to ethanol policy would have tremendous positive impact here and to everyone involved. It should be done as quickly as possible.

Glycerol-valuable byproduct of biofuel production

November 16, 2007

Cooking Up More Uses for the Leftovers for Biofuel Production | www.nytimes.com

Glycerol will have an increasing value in the production chain of biofuels as increasing utilization of biodiesel in the EU and other countries whose main transport fuel is diesel and as ethanol production in the US shows the failure of the corn derived ethanol program and other feedstock has to be found. With the amount of glycerol being produced as a by-product of biodiesel production from plant oils (roughly 100kg per tonne of biodiesel) this commodity, currently in glut and being incinerated to dispose of, will rise to become an important part of the biofuel chain. It is possible to get to liquid fuels (liquid alkanes to be precise) utilizing glycerol as a feed stock and projects demonstrating this capability done at the University of Wisconsin, Madison USA have substantial potential. It is also interesting to note that the two primary by-products of this conversion process, ethanol and methanol are also of value and add to the value chain of these fuels and feedstock.

Merits to Military backing coal to liquid fuel

November 15, 2007

Big Coal Tries to Recruit Military to Kindle a Market | online.wsj.com

The author indicates that oil prices above $50 per barrel will permit these plants to operate profitably. If that is the case and the developers can overcome the environmental issues facing these plants, this technology has merit and should be studied in greater depth from both a National Security stance as well as the economic benefits. Crude prices above $50 per barrel are, unfortunately, a fact of our current lives. Prices will likely remain at levels well above $50 for the foreseeable future. Any major geopolitical event will drive prices above the $120 level seen during the first "Oil Shock" brought on by the current driver of the major geopolitical event possibility, Iran.             

$100 oil is only a technical hurdle to higher pricing

November 14, 2007

Why $100 Oil Can't Float | online.wsj.com

Geopolitical and global economic pressures will drive oil pricing beyond $100 per barrel. It is not a matter of if, only a matter of time. Supply and storage are not that much of a factor in the current pricing mechanism and for whatever comfort consumer countries want to draw from data suggesting that above ground supplies are adequate to stem the price rise, the comfort they feel will quickly evaporate on the price drivers mentioned above. US-Iran tensions on continuing actions by Iran in Iraq along with the standoff on Irans' nuclear program will mount and eventually spark into more than a battle of words. Israel will not tolerate much more of a march towards nuclear capability either and even with the unlikely total pullout of Iraq by the US, the situation involving Iran will not ease. Chinese and Indian economic expansion will continue at a hot pace as will other parts of the developing world and these supplies will dwindle quickly. Gas lines in China assure it!! $120 n

Alternatives are here to stay

July 23, 2007

Potential Energy Crunch May Bring Other Fuels to Fore | online.wsj.com

Regardless of an energy crunch or issues with crude supplies, alternative fuels are a permanent part of the transportation fuels universe as well as heating and power generation. Along with all of the issues we are too painfully familiar with concerning the petroleum based transportation and power fuels, there are added pressures that are adding alternative fuels into the mix of this universe.

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